Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,510
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Toothache
    Newest Member
    Toothache
    Joined

August pattern discussion

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 544
  • Created
  • Last Reply
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, scoob40 said:

Where does one go to find the normal higs and lows for BAF and CEF ?

 

You can get them here:

 

http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu/

 

 

On the first tab, choose "daily/monthly normals"

On the second tab choose "daily"

And the third tab, you choose your site. Just type in springfield, and several stations will appear to choose from and just choose Westfield/Barnes Muni airport" for BAF. For some reason, CEF doesn't have daily averages which is kind of weird because most of the ASOS sites have good records on them. I get an error for CEF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And how has MEX(which is GFS based and GFS is not as warm as Euro due to underestimating WAR) performed this summer?

I'll give you a few degrees but even then, so what? Earlier this month was epic...this weekend is not. Again, I'm not sure what we're arguing other than subjective nonsense. It'll be warm, but not oppressive. Perfect summer weather for the weekend. If the BDL tarmac tickles 90 good for them.  I've been losing trust in ASOS and the siting issues recently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'll give you a few degrees but even then, so what? Earlier this month was epic...this weekend is not. Again, I'm not sure what we're arguing other than subjective nonsense. It'll be warm, but not oppressive. Perfect summer weather for the weekend. If the BDL tarmac tickles 90 good for them.  I've been losing trust in ASOS and the siting issues recently.

He's not satisfied until everyone is talking about how exciting it is that BDL may get into the upper 80s in the second half of August...especially considering where he lives will be like 82F and beautiful.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'll give you a few degrees but even then, so what? Earlier this month was epic...this weekend is not. Again, I'm not sure what we're arguing other than subjective nonsense. It'll be warm, but not oppressive. Perfect summer weather for the weekend. If the BDL tarmac tickles 90 good for them.  I've been losing trust in ASOS and the siting issues recently.

Do you feel home stations are more reliable and accurate?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

If the argument concerns semantic phraseology such as 'enjoyable summer weather' - that's not an objective, quantifiable end point. What we typically assess from a forecast standpoint is temperature trends / anomalies. The next 7-10 days should be warmer than normal for the East Coast; beyond that is debatable, though I believe there's sufficient evidence in support of a warmer than normal September. Now, a warm September may very well be enjoyable to most individuals. But from a forecast verification perspective, temperature anomalies are most important. Even if temperatures are not torrid, a warmer than normal pattern isn't worthy of discussion? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

If the argument concerns semantic phraseology such as 'enjoyable summer weather' - that's not an objective, quantifiable end point. What we typically assess from a forecast standpoint is temperature trends / anomalies. The next 7-10 days should be warmer than normal for the East Coast; beyond that is debatable, though I believe there's sufficient evidence in support of a warmer than normal September. Now, a warm September may very well be enjoyable to most individuals. But from a forecast verification perspective, temperature anomalies are most important. Even if temperatures are not torrid, a warmer than normal pattern isn't worthy of discussion? 

 

I think the debate is centered on littering the thread with subjective but strong descriptors like "absolute furnace" when we're really just discussing an above normal pattern in late August that probably is not much more than a +1 SD warm pattern.

 

Not that the pattern talk itself isn't worthy of discussion. This is the August pattern thread after all.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

If the argument concerns semantic phraseology such as 'enjoyable summer weather' - that's not an objective, quantifiable end point. What we typically assess from a forecast standpoint is temperature trends / anomalies. The next 7-10 days should be warmer than normal for the East Coast; beyond that is debatable, though I believe there's sufficient evidence in support of a warmer than normal September. Now, a warm September may very well be enjoyable to most individuals. But from a forecast verification perspective, temperature anomalies are most important. Even if temperatures are not torrid, a warmer than normal pattern isn't worthy of discussion? 

You just discussed it perfectly. 

It's the constant hyperbole, especially after a true 1 in 20 year air mass, that drives folks crazy.

Your post was nice to read as it lays it out without "WOW what a furnace as far as the eye can see", "weeks and weeks of Air Conditioning coming up", "complete and utter torch for the foreseeable future", etc.  

Then you look at a model and see hey maybe highs are +3 to +5 for a several day stretch but there's some disconnect between the sales pitch and reality.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You just discussed it perfectly. 

It's the constant hyperbole, especially after a true 1 in 20 year air mass, that drives folks crazy.

Your post was nice to read as it lays it out without "WOW what a furnace as far as the eye can see", "weeks and weeks of Air Conditioning coming up", "complete and utter torch for the foreseeable future", etc.  

Then you look at a model and see hey maybe highs are +3 to +5 for a several day stretch but there's some disconnect between the sales pitch and reality.

Why do you let my posting style get to you? You always seem so irritated. Can't just interact normally . To me it's a furnace pattern hitting 90 in Sept

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
  • Author
Posted
23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why do you let my posting style get to you? You always seem so irritated. Can't just interact normally . To me it's a furnace pattern hitting 90 in Sept

lol...furnace?  I only have 31 years of weather records and have 90+ recorded through 9/11 and upper 80s through the end of the month.  I wouldn't call that a furnace or unusual.  It's above normal for sure but not a furnace.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why do you let my posting style get to you? You always seem so irritated. Can't just interact normally . To me it's a furnace pattern hitting 90 in Sept

Haha I'm like the 6th person to mention something in the past couple days.  It's no secret your posting style gets to all of us at different times when we feel the hyperbole is too much.

It just always seems like you are trying to "sell us the weather" as opposed to interacting normally.  Even if someone agrees with you, you then use it to bait someone else.  It can't just be what it is, without strong adjectives.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha I'm like the 6th person to mention something in the past couple days.  It's no secret your posting style gets to all of us at different times when we feel the hyperbole is too much.

It just always seems like you are trying to "sell us the weather" as opposed to interacting normally.  Even if someone agrees with you, you then use it to bait someone else.  It can't just be what it is, without strong adjectives.  

I honestly don't know what you mean or are talking about.. Really don't.

 

Back to the wx..As boring a wx pattern as we can possibly see the next 10 days in SNE. Warm to hot with no rain. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
  • Author
Posted
10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We prolong

Prolonged heat wave aimed across the eastern U.S. to end August and begin September. Summer's sizzle continues...

CqqObMvXEAQN4E5.jpg
 
CqqObMwWAAQF5A-.jpg
CqqObMuWgAEqBq6.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What site are you using for verification for this extended heat wave?  DCA? EWR?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, dendrite said:

Avg high is 81F. MEX is 85/80/82 Sa/Su/M with low 60s dews. It's AN, but NBD and actually pretty nice for the last weekend of meteorological summer.

yeah ... i don't know if this post will mean much to anyone, but there are idiosyncrasies about this next week to 10 days of pattern evolution that hearkens back to a conversation Will and I had about a month or so ago; the atmosphere has been avoiding transport of big heat into the NE despite "looks" that would more often be associated with succeeding in doing so. it's plagued this summer really.

as a result, most heat waves have been dodgy,  numbering few, and only one stretch (perhaps a week's worth) where heat/dew point combination approached notable; otherwise, it's like things have "cheated" to keep this summer more temperate than the pattern would suggest when looking at it from the bigger, generalized perspective. 

take the 00z GGEM - nice kind of example run, with 590 + DAM heights and ridge structure approaching epicosity; yet during, it pulls of CAD in the 850 mb thermal gradient of all things...!  Cold air damming, 570 thickness under 592 heights... the result is a sensible beauty in the lower troposphere that really has not right to be that way. 

that's just one run of a dumb idea for a model .. and conditions are less likely to evolve that way - of course.  however, just as a micrososm example of what this summer's pattern evolution has done much of the time.  we've had hotter summers (i suspect) with "less" apparent ridge signals.  interesting.. 

when i step back over the last couple of day's worth of model cycles ...if one didn't know any better they'd think we're setting all time historic mid latitude America heat records in this heights tapestry/evolution.  no way below though. weird... 

----------------------------------------------------------------

sort of OT, ... hey Will, ...remember we were ruminating about the ENSO 'hang-over' last week? 

i see sort of vestiges of a warm-ENSO correlated pattern coming into the west Coast in these runs ...with having heights trying to repeat descend S into the Rockies mid-riff latitudes, and having a strong-ish 500mb wind tack zipping on shore up there.  i'm almost wondering if that's something we need to deal with heading into the first half of the Fall, ...until such time as the hemispheric gradients really steepen up for season's migration, and then that can at last trigger the new rest state - which "should be" (heh) something more neutral-negative.  

none of that includes the polarward indexes interfering at any given time... i'm just wondering about the tropical forcing latitudes in the grand relay from the Pac across N/A...  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Haha I'm like the 6th person to mention something in the past couple days.  It's no secret your posting style gets to all of us at different times when we feel the hyperbole is too much.

It just always seems like you are trying to "sell us the weather" as opposed to interacting normally.  Even if someone agrees with you, you then use it to bait someone else.  It can't just be what it is, without strong adjectives.  

 

22 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I honestly don't know what you mean or are talking about.. Really don't.

 

LOL, hilarious. Know that for every person who actually mentions something about the DIT’s oafish posts, there are many more of us out there who simply don't want to invest the time.  The DIT is stuck either way on this – either it’s honestly clueless about how it posts, or it does it on purpose… either way it’s quite sad.  “We” get that the admins allow a lot of this stuff through in the interest of free speech, comic relief, stimulating conversation on the board, or whatever, but that doesn’t mean that we enjoy having to constantly filter out all the DIT’s agenda-driven hyperbole in what is supposed to be a pattern discussion thread, not a banter thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

. I'm not sure what my agenda is or would be. I'm an average person who happens to share a passion for weather like many other folks here. My suggestion to you and Freak and whomever else you guys have  in your "corner"  would be to utilize the block feature . It's simple . Just a mouse click away. On a wx related note.. Man does it look warm to hot the next 8-10 days . The cool down this weekend all but vanished 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:
3 hours ago, J.Spin said:

. I'm not sure what my agenda is or would be. I'm an average person who happens to share a passion for weather like many other folks here. My suggestion to you and Freak and whomever else you guys have  in your "corner"  would be to utilize the block feature . It's simple . Just a mouse click away. On a wx related note.. Man does it look warm to hot the next 8-10 days . The cool down this weekend all but vanished 

This should all be moved to banter but for the record I'd never put you on ignore, haha, as you drive discussion and seem like a fun guy.  Those that know you say the same thing.  However don't make it sound like its only 1 or 2 people who have been annoyed at the hyperbole at one point or another, and it's not a "in your corner" thing.  Just in the past few days in this thread it's been mentioned by Will, Ryan, Dendrite, MetHerb, Ginxy, etc and you know where most of them stand on the excessive use of adjectives to make things more exciting/abnormal/extreme than they really are.  I do think you are an interesting poster but these discussions will occur from time to time when the concensus doesnt think the hype matches the pattern.  It just is what it is.

Back to weather...August will certainly come in above normal and September will likely start that way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...