Typhoon Tip Posted July 10, 2016 Author Share Posted July 10, 2016 Well there's probably a reason he took a vacation from the board as soon as the hyped June heat (by him of course) turned out to be a bust. Now that we are finally getting into a pattern that can produce heat he's back and he's back big!!! egh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Well after today we are in for a good stretch. Just wish we could get some rain but I'll take the good weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Well there's probably a reason he took a vacation from the board as soon as the hyped June heat (by him of course) turned out to be a bust. Now that we are finally getting into a pattern that can produce heat he's back and he's back big!!! It just got to be so old mannish around here ..It was pretty much a bunch of old men patting each other on the butt, talking about COC k. I didn't fit in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 10, 2016 Author Share Posted July 10, 2016 the 500 mb evolution of the 12z operational GFS is something to really be appreciated... the sfc features? not so much... this model just figuratively looks as though it were deliberately parameterized to generate fictitious fronts and boundaries ...anything at least excuse imaginable to fumble around and dim the heat potential. It's got this spaghetti logic of angel-hair pasta boundaries wriggling all over the place, while a historically tall hot ridge signal at 500mb is maturing over top. Firstly, there is no way it's going to succeed in putting a bd boundary through height approaching 600 dm ... give us a break, GFS. pulls that off? redefining fluid mechanics/thermodynamics ... cause it's all wrong. j'k, but that 'look' offer something more than mere summery inconvenient warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 the 500 mb evolution of the 12z operational GFS is something to really be appreciated... the sfc features? not so much... this model just figuratively looks as though it were deliberately parameterized to generate fictitious fronts and boundaries ...anything at least excuse imaginable to fumble around and dim the heat potential. It's got this spaghetti logic of angel-hair pasta boundaries wriggling all over the place, while a historically tall hot ridge signal at 500mb is maturing over top. Firstly, there is no way it's going to succeed in putting a bd boundary through height approaching 600 dm ... give us a break, GFS. pulls that off? redefining fluid mechanics/thermodynamics ... cause it's all wrong. j'k, but that 'look' offer something more than mere summery inconvenient warmth... As that mid level ridge matures, which, Jul 18-21 seems to be the period favored by most modelling right now (nicely coincident with peak climatology) there could certainly be some impressive numbers even into the Northeast. I agree regarding the proclivity for fictitious boundaries in light of the evolving mid levels. Nonetheless, the GFS verbatim does manage to push the coastal corridor near 100 by next Tuesday. Regardless, should be a hotter than normal mid/late month at the very least. Should be interesting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 10, 2016 Author Share Posted July 10, 2016 As that mid level ridge matures, which, Jul 18-21 seems to be the period favored by most modelling right now (nicely coincident with peak climatology) there could certainly be some impressive numbers even into the Northeast. I agree regarding the proclivity for fictitious boundaries in light of the evolving mid levels. Nonetheless, the GFS verbatim does manage to push the coastal corridor near 100 by next Tuesday. Regardless, should be a hotter than normal mid/late month at the very least. Should be interesting to track. yeah, i'm with you on all this (and have been paying attention..). i was opining mainly in deference to the D7-10+, which is inherently risky for obvious reasons... which I'm sure you are aware. i'm concerned about that period (relative to climo or not) particularly because of what is going on in the far eastern Pacific, wrt to tropical forcing potential. 6 spins ups in 2 weeks?! zomb - ... I spoke of this earlier; that's a ton of latent heat flux into the troposphere to be handled immediately down stream by the N/A pattern that tries at first to cap it from moving into the westerlies. it's a bit hypothetical/exploratory from there, but I envision an anomalous ridge response that if ever a Sonoran/SW air mass ejection were to get caught up under ... I dunno - man that could be multi day brown outs and ER stressing type stuff. As far as whether that eventually involves the E in full or in pulses, or not ...and when, time will tell. but the chess pieces are setting up - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 This summer was advertised as being a hot one by many. So far it has really been meh. Right around average And yes I understand the 30 year thing I would imagine zero heat records being set this upcoming week at the climo sites. I guess that would be asking a bit much during the climo peak but at least it would be something I believe most torrid summer ever was the call since February by Kevin Looks warm beach weather for my 12 day vacation We do not toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 I believe most torrid summer ever was the call since February by Kevin Looks warm beach weather for my 12 day vacation We do not toss You out after this week. Lucky muthufukka! Imagine if it started Thursday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 You out after this week. Lucky muthufukka! Imagine if it started Thursday....15th to the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Any chance we get into a ring of fire pattern ?? Love the late night light shows with high CAPE after a 96/73 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Some COC days too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 10, 2016 Author Share Posted July 10, 2016 I believe most torrid summer ever was the call since February by Kevin Looks warm beach weather for my 12 day vacation We do not toss Yeah, that's all - go with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 It just got to be so old mannish around here ..It was pretty much a bunch of old men patting each other on the butt, talking about COC k. I didn't fit in there It had nothing to do with the lack of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 15th to the 27th Tends to be the high point of summer most years for water related activities. I'm bagging summer vacation this year in favor of September but I reserve the right to change my mind at the last minute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 It had nothing to do with the lack of heat. or the call for locked in heat starting June 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Yeah, that's all - go with that 80s on the beach with warm water while you sweat in the 90s definitely will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 We just can't it to rain here. Less than a 0.1th of an inch total over the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Sun angle starting to go down the toilet soon. We need one of the heat ridges to work out soon. Don't look but some of the long range like the CFS is showing big troughing and chilly trends for August. Summer heat may be over for New England pretty soon, and for good this year. Don't look to August for redemption. Don't be surprised if August and September are cooler than many are expecting. yeah i mean that sun angle is really plummeting. i mean, we are what, like 19 days past the solstice? crash and burn sun angle. next thing you know the leaves will be changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 What's that liquid stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 well kids still have fun even if you rain out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 What's that liquid stuff?I mowed this evening and there's mushrooms growing all thruout the lawn. We wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 I mowed this evening and there's mushrooms growing all thruout the lawn. We wet Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Congrats.Im just glad the pattern has turned wet for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 It just got to be so old mannish around here ..It was pretty much a bunch of old men patting each other on the butt, talking about COC k. I didn't fit in theresallie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Im just glad the pattern has turned wet for SNE There's more to SNE than Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 There's more to SNE than Tolland. He cast a big one with that statement...just waiting to reel 'em in. I love how we get precipitation reports and dew point updates from the hill in Tolland, but rarely get temperature observations from there unless its a real mild morning. If discussing afternoon highs we find a hotter location to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Well yeah, my normal low is in that range and we hit that yesterday morning prior to 88F in the afternoon. Much bigger difference to have a 62/53 type day over 88/53 even if they both have the same near normal minimum temp. Heating is more a daytime high thing this time of year...it's gotta be cold enough for long enough to turn the heat on. Plenty of days in the past couple months my house has been in the mid-50s when I wake up cause the low was 39F but I don't hit the heat cause it'll be 75F by noon. Yeah, we had to turn the thermostat down because the heat kicked on after our record low max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 There's more to SNE than Tolland. Look around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 yeah, i'm with you on all this (and have been paying attention..). i was opining mainly in deference to the D7-10+, which is inherently risky for obvious reasons... which I'm sure you are aware. i'm concerned about that period (relative to climo or not) particularly because of what is going on in the far eastern Pacific, wrt to tropical forcing potential. 6 spins ups in 2 weeks?! zomb - ... I spoke of this earlier; that's a ton of latent heat flux into the troposphere to be handled immediately down stream by the N/A pattern that tries at first to cap it from moving into the westerlies. it's a bit hypothetical/exploratory from there, but I envision an anomalous ridge response that if ever a Sonoran/SW air mass ejection were to get caught up under ... I dunno - man that could be multi day brown outs and ER stressing type stuff. As far as whether that eventually involves the E in full or in pulses, or not ...and when, time will tell. but the chess pieces are setting up - Agreed. I think the best way to describe this summer is a "progression", with no stabilized regime for a protracted period. The next seven days will average above normal, but it now appears the opportunity for more extreme heat release will likely wait until the 20th or after. If the progged geopotential height changes are correct -- namely low height consolidation over AK as the west Atlantic ridge retrogrades wwd contemporaneously. Thus far, the weakness b/t ridges has cleverly found the Northeast, allowing us to evade major heat. I agree regarding the tropical forcing alterations; it does appear we're going to shift the upper divergence cell back to the IO with more subsidence in the tropical Pacific by week 2. This should aid in the evolution of the aforementioned NHEM ridge/trough progression. Either way, regardless of exact timing, I personally would be quite surprised if Jul and/or Aug does not feature period(s) of more significant heat, in light of the background changes and analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 11, 2016 Author Share Posted July 11, 2016 Agreed. I think the best way to describe this summer is a "progression", with no stabilized regime for a protracted period. The next seven days will average above normal, but it now appears the opportunity for more extreme heat release will likely wait until the 20th or after. If the progged geopotential height changes are correct -- namely low height consolidation over AK as the west Atlantic ridge retrogrades wwd contemporaneously. Thus far, the weakness b/t ridges has cleverly found the Northeast, allowing us to evade major heat. I agree regarding the tropical forcing alterations; it does appear we're going to shift the upper divergence cell back to the IO with more subsidence in the tropical Pacific by week 2. This should aid in the evolution of the aforementioned NHEM ridge/trough progression. Either way, regardless of exact timing, I personally would be quite surprised if Jul and/or Aug does not feature period(s) of more significant heat, in light of the background changes and analogs. And it is as much an issue of coexisting in time, as it is "weather" these large scale features are coming into or out of constructive, versus destructive interference ... That's really all the atmosphere does: conserves mass at all scales. That's why teleconnectors are always right - they have to be. Because when one understands what they physically represent, they are akin, in whole, to the definition of 'no air is lost or destroyed; just moved to another form' -NAO heights go up ... you simple and mathematically HAVE to have a corresponding region or regions that in totality = the mass of the former rise but in the other direction. The same physics applies everywhere. Then, you get into your 2nd and 3rd (and so on..) order derivatives that play out over longer periods of time - such as land and sea partial coupling/influences with the troposphere... (not to mention extra-planetary) oof. Immense complexities in the machinery of the weather. But, at the end of the day, ... by and large the larger teleconnector domain spaces have the greatest influence when factoring all force-gears in that machine. It's a fascinating observation in cause-and-effect relationship: the smalls team up to produce the large, which imposes its will on how the smalls behave while they are teaming up to create the large. The atmosphere is quite democratic in that way ... heh But, amid all that seemingly nebular discord there does exist a residue of organization from time to time, however transient. Obviously, we're talking about 'patterns'. When forces in the system of influences that ultimately guides atmosphere super-impose constructively, the resulting pattern tends to be very obvious, and relatively (though only seemingly) immovable. Not sure why I'm writing in this tact but is to say ...(haha), what you are describing with the "now push up to the 20th" vs what we were/are describing yesterday ... those differences are really just our own observation over the proficiency of positive versus negative constructive interference. In other words, yesterday there was less vying for proxy in the system (more positive) versus what we're seeing since... This is all loads of fun, actually, when you see all this in the winter and see eastern N/A storm potentials miles down the road... btw. Anyway, the actual story of how all these mass fields balance out over time has a lot of sentences culminating in chapters, and can be told an infinite number of ways. Whether we get a solid 7 day heat wave or two ...or three, versus buck shot of duples and never actually verify and three days of it but still wind up well above normal is a matter of muse along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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