CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 June likely will not be an inferno. AN, probably and that isn't high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 June likely will not be an inferno. AN, probably and that isn't high confidence.When would you think be hottest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Or you could look at monthly guidance and see all of them torching the last 1/3 of the month. That's another way to view it. And this time it lasts most of the rest of the summer Last 1/2 of the month is now 1/3, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 When would you think be hottest?With date and time of day please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 31, 2016 Author Share Posted May 31, 2016 Or you could look at monthly guidance and see all of them torching the last 1/3 of the month. That's another way to view it. And this time it lasts most of the rest of the summer Is this the same guidance that indicated stormier and colder weather on the horizon the past winter? The same ones that had 80s from mid-March onward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 31, 2016 Author Share Posted May 31, 2016 When would you think be hottest? Climate says late July is the hottest time of the year so I would say that later this month should be warmer the first part of the month. Is that what guidance is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 When would you think be hottest? Maybe last third or so of the month? Best guess. I would also argue last 2 months have seen quite the changes in seasonal guidance so confidence isn't high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Yes it will probably be warmer the last 10 days of the month , could have some hot days mixed in as well but it could also be transient and overall it is not torch signal for the month. Maybe July will work out better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Or you could look at monthly guidance and see all of them torching the last 1/3 of the month. That's another way to view it. And this time it lasts most of the rest of the summer Tamarack posted this in the NNE thread, but time to uninstall. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overall expecting temperatures to be near or below normal right through the middle of next week. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s should keep many air conditioners from appearing in windows for at least one more week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Tamarack posted this in the NNE thread, but time to uninstall. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overall expecting temperatures to be near or below normal right through the middle of next week. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s should keep many air conditioners from appearing in windows for at least one more week. Lol. Oceanstate must have written that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Yes it will probably be warmer the last 10 days of the month , could have some hot days mixed in as well but it could also be transient and overall it is not torch signal for the month. Maybe July will work out better. Climo would argue that the last 10 days of the month will be the hottest as the base state anyway, haha. Its always funny watching DIT completely ignore any time frame that's not +20C H85 over us... its not even June 1st and already focused on hyping up the last 1/3rd of the month. If the first half of the month is anything like today, sign me up. 78/43 type stuff is what dreams are made of if you actually like being active outdoors. 90/72 is nice if you either have a pool to lay by all day, or enjoy watching the Davis console from your air conditioned house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Tamarack posted this in the NNE thread, but time to uninstall. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overall expecting temperatures to be near or below normal right through the middle of next week. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s should keep many air conditioners from appearing in windows for at least one more week. Glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Or you could look at monthly guidance and see all of them torching the last 1/3 of the month. That's another way to view it. And this time it lasts most of the rest of the summer Global indicators and analogs favored June as the coolest month of the meteorological summer relative to normal (though I doubt cooler than avg) . So the progged pattern isn't too surprising; however, I would be very surprised if July and/or August are at or below normal. High AAM / GWO / residual high latitude blocking supports troughiness for the first half of the month. I think June 20-30 likely turns turns hot relative to normal (possibly slightly earlier, but I'd say definitely by late month). Nino state still intact atmospherically although we have collapsed in terms of SST's. That should change by July. The weeklies have been fairly consistent in depicting with the aforementioned alterations of the mean circulation by late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 Global indicators and analogs favored June as the coolest month of the meteorological summer relative to normal (though I doubt cooler than avg) . So the progged pattern isn't too surprising; however, I would be very surprised if July and/or August are at or below normal. High AAM / GWO / residual high latitude blocking supports troughiness for the first half of the month. I think June 20-30 likely turns turns hot relative to normal (possibly slightly earlier, but I'd say definitely by late month). Nino state still intact atmospherically although we have collapsed in terms of SST's. That should change by July. The weeklies have been fairly consistent in depicting with the aforementioned alterations of the mean circulation by late June.Agreed. Those thinking a cool summer is on the way because the first 10-14 days of June are a bit BN, are going to have hearts broken. From what I see the last 10 days or so of the month are going to be well AN. The difference this time is we lose the blocking we've seen after the last few torch ups.. So we are left with a torrid July and very humid August, instead of a transient torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 Look at how dry the last year has been. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 Look at how dry the last year has been. Wow I'm surprised there was not more death and starvation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted June 1, 2016 Author Share Posted June 1, 2016 I'm surprised there was not more death and starvation. I'm surprised that we have any green vegetation at all. Started June off with a low of 50° this morning for a nice 31° diurnal swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 Look at how dry the last year has been. Wow You'll be happy to know we have two rivers at record low flow right now, and a third tied for record lowest. Maybe that explains the mass exodus on 93 Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 Sunday looks like a chase day!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 I'm surprised there was not more death and starvation. Congrats everyone... we survived the water deficit. Keep putting on a brave face, you never know when all the water will be gone for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 Sunday looks like a chase day!!!!!!!!!!!! Long way to go, but a Day 5 slight risk is always a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 Sunday looks like a chase day!!!!!!!!!!!! NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 It's an interesting setup but very complex. Yeah we're thinking N NJ perhaps or even NE PA...NE PA wouldn't be bad b/c it's very rural and some good viewing places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 Congrats everyone... we survived the water deficit. Keep putting on a brave face, you never know when all the water will be gone for good. lol. When winter comes we will all be buried ALIVE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 We are warm sectored Sunday , but there's not much more going for us than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 The advertised chilly pattern first 10 days of June..is turning into a slightly AN to above pattern..with signs of heat building in after day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 It's an interesting setup but very complex. Yeah we're thinking N NJ perhaps or even NE PA...NE PA wouldn't be bad b/c it's very rural and some good viewing places. lol hills and trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 lol hills and trees Eh there are some spots which provide some good views. It's not a terrible setup...obviously more than what we've had this far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 CDC teleconnector layout has changed markedly over the last two night's worth of derivatives... It's completely sans the previous cooler look in lieu of a warmer one. In fact, the combination of a -2 SD PNA with limited spread among the individual members, combined with a total +3 SD correction in the NAO, together signal burgeoning middle latitude ridging over eastern North America. CPC is also suggestive, but not quite with the same panache. Nevertheless, their derivative are also showing "reasonably" well grouped members around a neutralizing NAO and dropping PNA to or perhaps less than 0 heading toward mid month. The signal is too new to really hang hats on with lots of confidence. The operational runs are tapping into it though. The lesser dependable guidance types really have an intense SW Heat Release with fiery plateau cooked air ...well mixed and ejected through the Plains and into the southern Lakes. The GGEM actually brings this released plume(s) as far NE as New England, with +20 to +22 C 850 mb dragon tongue into the region in its extended. Contrasting, the Euro has this ejection of air mass, but it shunts it S into the MA by classic Canadian Marine troughing directing NE mid level vectors SE in its extended. I don't personally trust with the GFS handling of the "N-stream". It seems to fabricate, for any reason in any warm season, beyond D 5 . It has a pretty clear bias to over develop polar influence/reduce and erode subtropical ridging latitude extension around the hemisphere that I've noticed. Others may not share in that observation, but it blew it on the last low impactor warm spell until it was right on it, and it noticed prior to that how the model was going crazy with the N stream. Heh, so for now... I think the signal is certainly there for heat in the middle/late month, but we need time to gain confidence there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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