tdp146 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Could be some overnight boomers 4k is definitely the most vigorous. No other models really look like that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 RGEM is dry for most - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 RGEM is dry for most It shows the same thing as the NAM. I am not sure what you're expecting a chance of a scattered thunderstorm to look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 LOL-they are not the same-NAM is very wet through 48 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 LOL-they are not the same-NAM is very wet through 48 - That's because it develops this area on Tuesday afternoon which is probably bogus. It has nothing to do with late tonight/early AM threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Chuckled seeing how the GFS splits the convection north and south for much of this area on Thursday leaving the middle dry, and NAM driving most of the rain north of 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 That's because it develops this area on Tuesday afternoon which is probably bogus. It has nothing to do with late tonight/early AM threat. Fair point-take that out and it's bone dry like the RGEM Maybe .10-.25 for some lucky poster. Thur threat looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Phoenix is running 3 degrees ahead of yesterday so far. 1 degree ahead now. 103 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Fair point-take that out and it's bone dry like the RGEM Maybe .10-.25 for some lucky poster. Thur threat looks better All I said was that we could see a scattered thunderstorm early tomorrow morning. Not sure what the debate is about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 I'm in Vegas and its 106 at 11:11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Euro is pretty close to epic for Thursday. Need it about another 50 miles further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 If the south trend this year continues, then it will be a nice event for areas to our south. It came North of 00z and the GFS is still over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 20, 2016 Author Share Posted June 20, 2016 It came North of 00z and the GFS is still over New England. Don't really trust any models showing heavy rain here until we get to under 48 hrs with most of the heaviest storms this year shifting south in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Don't really trust any models showing heavy rain here until we get to under 48 hrs with all the heaviest storms this year shifting south in the short term. Agree with this. Need to follow the seasonal trend which is for storms to head south of the immediate NYC metro. Although Forky being on board is interesting, as he has the hot hand lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 models are also notoriously poor on MCS placement as well so even if it shows area X or Y in the bullseye, it could end up somewhere else. no one is truly out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 49C/121F in Palm Springs, CA at the past hour (1pm PDT). 2F off of their all time record high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Phoenix is running 3 degrees behind yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Made it up to 84 here today, current temp 79/DP 67/RH 64% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Same places (inland) that made it to 90 yesterday did again today New Brunswick, TTN, PHL , ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 The game really doesn't even start until you see exactly where they form over the the Midwest/ Great Lakes. They seem to like running near the 582-588 DM line. Strongly agree; I have noticed anecdotally that they usually propagate between the 582 and 588dm geopotential height contours. My thinking at this point is that the GFS is probably too far north, and our area is likely on the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Same places (inland) that made it to 90 yesterday did again today New Brunswick, TTN, PHL Low-end heat wave likely for inland NJ. Yesterday was 86.5F and today 87.4F here. Tomorrow I'll probably hit 90. Meanwhile the Monmouth Coast has been low 70s the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 20, 2016 Author Share Posted June 20, 2016 This was one of the rare long range warm up forecasts that underperformed some of the warmer guidance like the Euro which had upper 90's for Newark. The late May heat wave blew past expectations and Newark reached 96 instead of the 91 the Euro had and the GFS 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 This was one of the rare long range warm up forecasts that underperformed some of the warmer guidance like the Euro which had upper 90's for Newark. The late May heat wave blew past expectations and Newark reached 96 instead of the 91 the Euro had and the GFS 84. Similar scenario last year with regards to a warmu/heat in late June. it would have exceeded IMO if it hadn't been for the cutoff onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 And meanwhile, even as far north as Montreal it's 90 now. It's even 88 in Quebec City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Now 50C/122F in Palm Springs. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Looks like my temp rebounded a bit, back up to 83 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 18z NAM hammers the area with the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 80 here today with a se wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 37C 850 mb in AZ. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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