JC-CT Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 What a beast modeled. Just one of those years where things don't align correctly. One of the more challenging forecast years for humans and modeling alike. Having blizzard conditions and the best paste storm since 97 certainly were highlights in a warm snow free winter. I had memorable storms unlike 12 which ratted.Good recap for our area. Understandably more rat-like further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 What a beast modeled. Just one of those years where things don't align correctly. One of the more challenging forecast years for humans and modeling alike. Having blizzard conditions and the best paste storm since 97 certainly were highlights in a warm snow free winter. I had memorable storms unlike 12 which ratted. You never know what pops up in March and April during post Nino winters. Could be a great coastal wind/rain event and NNE snow like April 2007, or even something more wintry. Hell even 2010 brought the late April snow bomb to VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 You never know what pops up in March and April during post Nino winters. Could be a great coastal wind/rain event and NNE snow like April 2007, or even something more wintry. Hell even 2010 brought the late April snow bomb to VT.very very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Man ACK and the Cape side of the canal are so close to getting a deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Man ACK and the Cape side of the canal are so close to getting a deform band. Could get interesting out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 This certainly ratted north of the pike. This was about as vile a rodent as conceivably possible in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Highly unusually to see a closed 5h move due East off of NC. Interesting year this year. Been a while since I have seen these types of upper air evolution's. Pretty cool. Tough tough forecast for the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I don't really understand the NWS going BTW lately though on forecasts. Whatever happened to the days of starting out conservatvely in a questionable situation and adjusting from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 This certainly ratted north of the pike. This was about as vile a rodent as conceivably possible in these parts. Just going to move on, I'm looking forward to the warm up next week, Its time to move into spring activity's now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I don't really understand the NWS going BTW lately though on forecasts. Whatever happened to the days of starting out conservatvely in a questionable situation and adjusting from there? NWSGW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 NWSGW? Well outer Cape and ACK could get decent snows, but I guess in my mind, nothing wrong with an advisory of 3-5 and if worst case scenario happened..upgrade to 5-8 or something under WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Highly unusually to see a closed 5h move due East off of NC. Interesting year this year. Been a while since I have seen these types of upper air evolution's. Pretty cool. Tough tough forecast for the Delmarva. Because this season has not snowed in about every way imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Well outer Cape and ACK could get decent snows, but I guess in my mind, nothing wrong with an advisory of 3-5 and if worst case scenario happened..upgrade to 5-8 or something under WSW. Its a much better way to go in my mind then to go all in and have to retract IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 well just in case I was in the told you so category...I make lots of mistakes and there are still a lot of things I do not understand but this one was never much of anything outside of the cape and islands and I called it many days ago and for this one storm I was correct and include along the and just south of the pike in the broad brush ratterisms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 100 mph 850, this is a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 well just in case I was in the told you so category...I make lots of mistakes and there are still a lot of things I do not understand but this one was never much of anything outside of the cape and islands and I called it many days ago and for this one storm I was correct and include along the and just south of the pike in the broad brush ratterisms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Because this season has not snowed in about every way imaginable. Not even thinking about snow more about upper air in the Northern Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 As one last minor indignity, I full expect to be in the RI snow hole downstream of OES for this one, and yes, I'm complaining that someone will steal my inch of snow. This season has generated plenty of fun looking storms, that no one will remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Might be the most impressive concentric storm of the year. That biatch is wrapped tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Because this season has not snowed in about every way imaginable. Yes, this is true for sure. It's amazing how we've missed out on many big systems due to so many different problems. This time it's confluence that's putting the kabosh to this one. Last time it was the lack of confluence. When we need it to phase, it doesn't. And when we don't want it to phase, it does. Too many disturbances in the flow, wave spacing not right, High Pressure in the wrong position, or moving out to fast, ridge out west in wrong position, PV to far north, or to far south etc etc....Have I missed anything?? Oh the Scooter Sh*t streak as well(although that is confluence I believe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Probably will see an eye like feature. Travels right along the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Yes, this is true for sure. It's amazing how we've missed out on many big systems due to so many different problems. This time it's confluence that's putting the kabosh to this one. Last time it was the lack of confluence. When we need it to phase, it doesn't. And when we don't want it to phase, it does. Too many disturbances in the flow, wave spacing not right, High Pressure in the wrong position, or moving out to fast, ridge out west in wrong position, PV to far north, or to far south etc etc....Have I missed anything?? Oh the Scooter Sh*t streak as well(although that is confluence I believe). I suppose this helps you feel better. It is what it is let it go man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I suppose this helps you feel better. It is what it is let it go man. Relax Ginxy! I feel fine. I was only commenting on what Ray said, because it was true. I had my Rant/Melt 3 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Cape threats always devolve into melt/therapy threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 There's actually a pretty solid OES signature on the mesos for the south shore...someone could get more than the Cape there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I really think a deform band hits me hard for a time tomorrow afternoon. The 4km NAM is much more intense than the global models down to 972mb as it passes by the benchmark. Just imagine what would have been if the storm hit the benchmark with the wind field that strong, we would be talking about hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 4km NAM is within 50 miles of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 4 km NAM really upped QPF totals to 0.9" now, that equates to about 9-11" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 AS was the case with the Blizzard of 2016 Jan 23 2016 here on Cape Cod the H5 low moved more northeastward with time, and this one will do the same thing instead of moving eastward off of NC. This storm is behaving like the 4km NAM 12z run, precip shield is much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 This certainly ratted north of the pike. This was about as vile a rodent as conceivably possible in these parts. Like a football game with 8 fumbles and the other team recovers all 8 - everything bounced the wrong way. Has not been as bad here as out PF's way, hence my lofty standing in KevInMA's snow table (2nd tallest among the midgets.) However, I'd need at least 7.7" more to avoid 15-16 being least snowy of 18 winters here, and I'd guess about a 75% chance we don't see that much. Would also need at least 3.9" to avoid least snowy anywhere since 1973-74 in BGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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