A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's dumping here. GFS got this backside development pretty good. Picture doesn't do it justice. 20160301_122153.jpg i think we've forgot what dumping looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GFS was the only halfway decent model for this I think. Realistic amounts and got the backside development. Given what the GFS has been forecasting for Toronto, this makes me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GFS was the only halfway decent model for this I think. Realistic amounts and got the backside development. Not here haha. Completely bare ground in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Latest RGEM looks solid for Toronto. A lot of freezing rain for the Niagara Peninsula, though. Dangerous amounts, potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Given what the GFS has been forecasting for Toronto, this makes me happy. You're setting yourself up for disappointment. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 This shot captured it better. 30 dbz right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Since it captured the deformation band for here, hopefully that translates to later on for the Ontario folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Had periods of FZRA/PL/SN last night, that left a glaze of ice and a dusting. Recently there's been a nice burst of SN, and will end up with <1" accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Based on storm reports, it looks like Caro MI- Saginaw- Lansing and maybe Kalamazoo have gotten 3-4" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Dryslot rapidly filling in around here, should be snowing within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Thinking I'll now be slightly south of the heaviest amounts. North trend really hasn't corrected south much, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Visibility only a block right now. Looks like there is a LES band signature underneath the synoptic snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Thinking I'll now be slightly south of the heaviest amounts. North trend really hasn't corrected south much, if at all. Yeah, RAP/HRRR are oscillating more than trending right now. I guess the good news is that they haven't trended this thing all the way to the Bruce Peninsula. Wildcard may be convective elements within the snow that we may experience around 3z. GFS soundings showing some steeper lapse rates/elevated CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah, RAP/HRRR are oscillating more than trending right now. I guess the good news is that they haven't trended this thing all the way to the Bruce Peninsula. Wildcard may be convective elements within the snow that we may experience around 3z. GFS soundings showing some steeper lapse rates/elevated CAPE. Yes, seeing values of greater than 7°C/km on BUFKIT for CYKF around 10pm tonight. Should be the highlight of the system, maybe even some boomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Dryslot rapidly filling in around here, should be snowing within the hour.Dual pol shows mixing. Looks like we aren't going to overperform so aim low for the totals. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Visibility only a block right now. Looks like there is a LES band signature underneath the synoptic snow. Agree- pouring snow in Libertyville. Nice dendrites, great rates. Probably 1" in the past 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 2.2" since 11am. ~5.2" total. At about 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 25 dbz on the north side weak dust DAB total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 With the hi-res models not really backing down, I'm going to cut my totals expected totals for Toronto back to 6-9". We could still over-perform but just to hedge my bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Ok, SN+ Now. First flakes of this "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm not sure if i've met legit +SN criteria all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 With the hi-res models not really backing down, I'm going to cut my totals expected totals for Toronto back to 6-9". We could still over-perform but just to hedge my bets. I'm going to go a bit more drastic and reduce amounts big time from 9-13" to 4-8". There's going to be a steep gradient within the GTA. Lowest amounts in the southern sections and highest amounts in the north. More like 4-5" in the downtown core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm going to go a bit more drastic and reduce amounts big time from 9-13" to 4-8". There's going to be a steep gradient within the GTA. Lowest amounts in the southern sections and highest amounts in the north. More like 4-5" in the downtown core. With the hi-res models not really backing down, I'm going to cut my totals expected totals for Toronto back to 6-9". We could still over-perform but just to hedge my bets. Talk about having the carpet pulled out from under you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm going to go a bit more drastic and reduce amounts big time from 9-13" to 4-8". There's going to be a steep gradient within the GTA. Lowest amounts in the southern sections and highest amounts in the north. More like 4-5" in the downtown core. Wow, that's really pessimistic. Only the HRRR is as low as 4-5" and even it varies. What are you're seeing now that's caused you to bail? Also, what's it doing now? I notice YYZ has consistently been -SN with 3-4 SM visibility with virtually no returns for the last 3 hours or so. Snizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Talk about having the carpet pulled out from under you. I checked the soundings off the HRRR. It shows sleet getting into Toronto for a couple of hours. I really don't think that'll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Just got a quick coating of Freezing Rain over the past hour, quickly about to change to snow it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's been snowing since 5AM here. It is legit heavy snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 2.25" here with "drifts" up to 3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Wow, that's really pessimistic. Only the HRRR is as low as 4-5" and even it varies. What are you're seeing now that's caused you to bail? Also, what's it doing now? I notice YYZ has consistently been -SN with 3-4 SM visibility with virtually no returns for the last 3 hours or so. Snizzle? Just snizzle/light snow flakes. The track and especially the speed of the system concern me. The HRRR has the best rates in a 3-4 hour period (8 pm to midnight or 1 am). Also, the HRRR and RAP hint at some sleet in the early evening which may limit snow amounts. Let's see what happens and hope for the best. Hopefully the HRRR is out to lunch with the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 19z HRRR is rolling out and so far (up to 01z) the sleet /freezing rain is confined to the Niagara region. All snow for the GTA. Hopefully this is the start of a positive trend for the GTA as the HRRR gets into its wheelhouse (within the first 6 hours of the run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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