Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Lurker here... How is the Champaign-Urbana area looking? Really good. Area could see blizzard conditions tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 No one has been doing it nearly as badly as you all winter. Most actually talk in generalities instead of IMBY all day long. yeah and as soon as a threat clears chi or det, 99% of the posters abandon the thread. give the kid a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 roaring 850 mb winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 roaring 850 mb winds Untitled.png Man that CCB is badass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Lurker here... How is the Champaign-Urbana area looking? You'll get different answers from other people, but my call would be 12" near-blizzard conditions winds NNE 35-55 mph. Sticking with my call for Chicago, look at the lake fetch and the hard push north of warm fronts east of central MI ... rippage will develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 You'll get different answers from other people, but my call would be 12" near-blizzard conditions winds NNE 35-55 mph. Sticking with my call for Chicago, look at the lake fetch and the hard push north of warm fronts east of central MI ... rippage will develop. Was your call 10-18 or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 i'm totally fine with 100% IMBY weenie posting it only gets annoying when the weenie goggles frame every post like it's going your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 yeah and as soon as a threat clears chi or det, 99% of the posters abandon the thread. give the kid a break. agree, as long as he can handle the ribbing (like geos does so well), who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Man that CCB is badass. Yes sir. Would be in big trouble if that mixed down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Ready for my 3.5" of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 You'll get different answers from other people, but my call would be 12" near-blizzard conditions winds NNE 35-55 mph. Sticking with my call for Chicago, look at the lake fetch and the hard push north of warm fronts east of central MI ... rippage will develop. Skilling mentioned earlier that this system will be pulling in lake moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm gonna go with 11" for Hoosier, 8" for Chambana, Alek's 5.5" call looking money (6"), and Geos 3". ChicagoWX in Kankakee should be good for 9" too IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 agree, as long as he can handle the ribbing (like geos does so well), who cares he's holding his own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Any chance evening office crews update to blizzard warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm gonna go with 11" for Hoosier, 8" for Chambana, Alek's 5.5" call looking money (6"), and Geos 3". ChicagoWX in Kankakee should be good for 9" too IMO. agree on all counts i totally lucked out into a dank call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Ready for my 3.5" of slop It's just SO close to being something nice. Very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Any chance evening office crews update to blizzard warning? It would be close to a slam dunk if it were a powdery storm. Even if we don't see blizzard warnings, I think there's a pretty decent chance the criteria will be met in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Sticking with my call for Chicago, look at the lake fetch and the hard push north of warm fronts east of central MI ... rippage will develop. There is not going to be any lake contribution other than perhaps some localized convergence owing to stronger winds over the lake than on land....and even then you're adding <<<1" to coastal areas. Lake-850 differentials are like 5 or 6C. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 agree on all counts i totally lucked out into a dank call You did it again man. You took a shot in the dark. Goodluck up there dude. Those winds are gonna be ripping up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Lurker/weather idiot here: With the NE winds, should northeast lower Michigan expect any lake enhanced snows from Lake Huron? APX has us pegged for about 3-4 inches for Rogers City. APN is forecasted for only 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Any chance evening office crews update to blizzard warning? Wouldn't be surprised. GFS showing pockets of 30kts at the surface tomorrow afternoon in the deform. Much higher than that right off the deck. With heavy precip, and potential gravity waves given such a dynamic storm I wouldn't be surprised to see some very strong gusts. Even if they don't go with one it's going to be right on the cusp, which is gonna be pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Major storms always seem to push moisture further north than many expect, when the east coast had the blizzard a month ago the heaviest falls were in PA and NYC while MD was widely favored (they did almost as well). I think this one will set up heaviest bands from ORD south-southwest partly due to lake enhancement but with no lake still an 8" storm, the lake doubles the outcome within 40-50 miles. I do agree that there will be very sharp cutoffs on western edge of precip, RFD might get 4" and MLI 1-2' DBQ trace to 1" sort of a deal. Within Chicagoland, would expect heavier bands across south side and a second area hitting near Evanston and into north side, could be less in between. A third lake effect band will probably set up across Kenosha. Track of low likely to be NNE then ENE turning around 50 nw IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Last images of the visible sat looked beautiful before darkness sat in. Storm is really coming together nicely now. It's nice to see your area finally getting a nice snow. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 roaring 850 mb winds Untitled.png Rip City very impressive those find a way to mix down and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a good amount of power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Most of the progs that set up further west involve that f-gen band by expanding it and merging with the deformation precip shield later tonight and early tomorrow morning. If it peters out or stays weak, that's probably a sign that the eastern solutions are right. And yes, it will help with low level saturation as it slogs its way east, provided it's still there come morning. Awesome stuff - thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It would be close to a slam dunk if it were a powdery storm. Even if we don't see blizzard warnings, I think there's a pretty decent chance the criteria will be met in some spots. Yeah I totally agree, this is going to be some concrete, east coast backbreaker snow. Guess who volunteered to go on baby duty the next 2 nights? Model watching with little dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Major storms always seem to push moisture further north than many expect, when the east coast had the blizzard a month ago the heaviest falls were in PA and NYC while MD was widely favored (they did almost as well). I think this one will set up heaviest bands from ORD south-southwest partly due to lake enhancement but with no lake still an 8" storm, the lake doubles the outcome within 40-50 miles. I do agree that there will be very sharp cutoffs on western edge of precip, RFD might get 4" and MLI 1-2' DBQ trace to 1" sort of a deal. Within Chicagoland, would expect heavier bands across south side and a second area hitting near Evanston and into north side, could be less in between. A third lake effect band will probably set up across Kenosha. Track of low likely to be NNE then ENE turning around 50 nw IND. Not expecting anything more than a dense overcast and 30mph gusts here, so 1-2 feet would certainly be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Major storms always seem to push moisture further north than many expect, when the east coast had the blizzard a month ago the heaviest falls were in PA and NYC while MD was widely favored (they did almost as well). I think this one will set up heaviest bands from ORD south-southwest partly due to lake enhancement but with no lake still an 8" storm, the lake doubles the outcome within 40-50 miles. I do agree that there will be very sharp cutoffs on western edge of precip, RFD might get 4" and MLI 1-2' DBQ trace to 1" sort of a deal. Within Chicagoland, would expect heavier bands across south side and a second area hitting near Evanston and into north side, could be less in between. A third lake effect band will probably set up across Kenosha. Track of low likely to be NNE then ENE turning around 50 nw IND. I just don't see what you're seeing as far as the lake. Delta Ts are borderline (even taking more of a midlake temp to use for the differential)...could be a bit of enhancement downwind but wouldn't expect it to add a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I hope your front porch's look like mine after the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Not expecting anything more than a dense overcast and 30mph gusts here, so 1-2 feet would certainly be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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