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Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-25 PART II

snowstormcanuck

By snowstormcanuck,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

That would sit the deformation band over the STL metro up into Central IL for quite some time.

 

I think St. Louis is sitting pretty right now. 

 

GFS concurs

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png

 

14 hours.

 

crefptypeconus.png

 

18 hours.

 

crefptypeconus.png

 

Deformation band from your place to Hoosier.

 

accqpfconus.png

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Central Illinois

Central Illinois

Posted
Posted
Strong winter storm system will be ongoing at the start of

Wednesday across the area. A couple of the 12z models have trended

west with the track of the system and resulting heavy snow band.

Newer 18z model runs have trended more west and this has lead to an

adjustment to snowfall totals and locations for the subsequent

warning and advisories in this forecast. System is forecast to be

very dynamic and now looks like colder air comes in quite quickly

and should be through most of the cwa by morning and then continue

to push east by early afternoon...with last place to change over to

snow will be the LWV area. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times

during the day. Current indications show that heaviest snowfall will

be somewhere along a line between Champaign/Danville area to

Shelbyville. With the concern of the track shifting west again

tonight, have pushed warning criteria snowfall west as well close to

I-55. Another impact will be the very strong northerly winds

tomorrow.

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

My call would be 12-18 inches in Chicago, 10-15 in portions of lower Michigan north of a Jackson to Flint line although close to that line storm goes rain to snow, so best accumulations in MI around GRR to APN, and also 10-15 in s.e. corner of WI trending to 8 inches MKE and 3 inches Sheboygan.

 

The 12-18 swath tapers to 10-15 again south-southwest of ORD but extends to STL, trend is rapidly down to 5-10 near LAF to PAH and almost zero snow in most of IN, w OH except for tail end of storm which could give 1-3 inches.

 

In Ontario, can see how it starts with some snow, changes to ZR then all rain, back to sleet and snow. Totals something like 5 cms for London to Hamilton, 8-12 cms Toronto, heavier amounts around s Ggn Bay into central ON (20-40 cms).

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

West shift has me in the heavy snow band. New AFD mentioned near blizzard conditions, also saying the bold air is getting pulled in more quickly. Might be the best storm I've had in a few years.

 

I didn't know air could be bold.  :lmao:

Learned something new today. Messin'

 

Looks nasty around this time.

Evening rush hour is going to be a mess.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_5.png

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
  • Author
Posted

My call would be 12-18 inches in Chicago, 10-15 in portions of lower Michigan north of a Jackson to Flint line although close to that line storm goes rain to snow, so best accumulations in MI around GRR to APN, and also 10-15 in s.e. corner of WI trending to 8 inches MKE and 3 inches Sheboygan.

 

The 12-18 swath tapers to 10-15 again south-southwest of ORD but extends to STL, trend is rapidly down to 5-10 near LAF to PAH and almost zero snow in most of IN, w OH except for tail end of storm which could give 1-3 inches.

 

In Ontario, can see how it starts with some snow, changes to ZR then all rain, back to sleet and snow. Totals something like 5 cms for London to Hamilton, 8-12 cms Toronto, heavier amounts around s Ggn Bay into central ON (20-40 cms).

 

lol

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

DTX is seeing some of the same things I am seeing with respect to wet bulbing and evaporative cooling:

 

 

A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST REMAINS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH
HIGHLY SENSITIVE THERMAL FIELDS...AS THE INTERACTION OF THREE KEY
UPPER LEVEL PLAYERS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH
SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE
CWA...AS EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS IN MID LEVELS.
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH MINNESOTA EXTENDING
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND FORCE THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CIRCULATION
IS QUICKLY TIGHTENING UP AND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DEEPENING OF THE
LOW PRESSURE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN GULF STATES. THE BIG ISSUE IS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 12Z WEDNESDAY QUICKLY UNRAVELS AND EXPANDS OUTWARD...WITH
THE EXCELLENT FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL PV FILAMENT
ADVANCING NORTH...ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PW VALUES
PUSHING TOWARD 0.75 INCHES...AND 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RUNNING
AROUND 4 G/KG...AND EVEN MAYBE APPROACHING 5 G/KG DOWNRIVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT MOISTURE COMES WARMTH...AND WILL BE TOWING THE
LINE WITH THE 0 C ISOTHERM ACROSS A VERY DEEP LAYER. THE GFS AND NAM
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY PRONOUNCED...AS 925-850 MB WET BULB TEMPS
OF THE GFS ARE A GOOD 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THE NAM OVER WAYNE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS A BIT OF
A WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK COMPARED TO ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND WITH THE GEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE
NAM...FORECAST WAS SKEWED ON THE COLDER SIDE...AS THE 12Z EURO HAS
COME IN LINE WITH ITS 00Z RUN. THE HUGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE AT 6Z WEDNESDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE BORDER...AS THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TOO DEEP AND WEST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW (983 MB)...LIKELY SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHILE
THE EURO IS MUCH FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER AT 990 MB. LATEST RAP13 IS
IN LINE WITH THE EURO MAGNITUDE BUT IN THE MIDDLE FOR LOCATION.

EXPECTATIONS ARE THE COLD DRY EAST-NORTHEAST FEED DOWN LOW SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD WET BULBING WITH LEAD SURGE OF MOISTURE/ACTIVITY TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER (MONROE/WAYNE/LENAWEE COUNTIES)...AS MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO IMPINGE ON THESE AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IF PRECIPITATION DOES TAPER OFF AND SHUT DOWN...SOME
MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 1
TO 5 INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. HIGHER END IF
WE STAY MOSTLY SNOW AND DON`T MIX...LOWER END WITH MIXTURE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE GLACIAL
RIDGE BEING ALL SNOW...WITH LONGER DURATION OF FORCING.
ALTHOUGH THE DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD SAGINAW BAY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THE QUESTION MARK IS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SETTLING BACK SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS THIRD UPPER LEVEL PLAYER CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON ACTS AS THE KICKER AND
ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO SET IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING
THE SNOW BY AROUND NOON. WITH MUCH OF THE WEIGHT PLACED ON THE
CONSISTENT EURO...TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-69 POINT TO STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF SAGINAW BAY/LAKE HURON DURING WEDNESDAY
WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORES...BUT WITH THE WET NATURE OF SNOW...LACK OF BLOWING SNOW
INITIALLY...VISIBILITIES MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 1/4SM FOR ANY
EXTENDED TIME...AND HELD OFF ON BLIZZARD WARNING. THIS IS SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS CAN LOOK AT CLOSELY.

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King James

King James

Posted
Posted

Fwiw I think LOT has a brewing public perception problem, event way under the radar in the city, especially considering potential rush hour timing.

Local news outlets around here don't even want to touch this storm.  WGN this morning was showing a model that had SE burbs of Chicago getting 11 inches and even had "Winter Storm Watch" in the graphic but didn't even speak really a word on the storm's potential. It's been downplayed for sure, probably because of all the uncertainty.

 

I'll be coming down 55 south tomorrow after work and I know for sure my office hasn't given a single thought to this storm

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

Still have dewpoints in the upper teens here, all the models right now are saying that we should be in the mid to upper 20s for dewpoints. It is getting to the point where this might matter with respect to wet bulbing and evaporative cooling.

 

I hope you have enough optimism to spare for the rest of us in the Detroit area. 

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RJSnowLover

RJSnowLover

Posted
Posted

Fwiw I think LOT has a brewing public perception problem, event way under the radar in the city, especially considering potential rush hour timing.

Agreed. I work at a Mariano's & multiple coworkers (and myself) were surprised to see no big rush of people. Happens every time before a well-advertised snow event, but not today. Then again, I don't envy their jobs at the moment.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Not going to name names but I was actually accused of trolling by talking about the SREF. I guess there could be some argument for that if it was way out on its own with nothing else even close, but you can't really say that's the case.

It almost feels like people take this stuff personally sometimes. It's a weather forum and most of us here like snow but at the end of the day it's just that, snow. Whatever will be will be, and as usual, we'll find out which models did better than others.

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RyanDe680

RyanDe680

Posted
Posted

My call would be 12-18 inches in Chicago, 10-15 in portions of lower Michigan north of a Jackson to Flint line although close to that line storm goes rain to snow, so best accumulations in MI around GRR to APN, and also 10-15 in s.e. corner of WI trending to 8 inches MKE and 3 inches Sheboygan.

 

The 12-18 swath tapers to 10-15 again south-southwest of ORD but extends to STL, trend is rapidly down to 5-10 near LAF to PAH and almost zero snow in most of IN, w OH except for tail end of storm which could give 1-3 inches.

 

In Ontario, can see how it starts with some snow, changes to ZR then all rain, back to sleet and snow. Totals something like 5 cms for London to Hamilton, 8-12 cms Toronto, heavier amounts around s Ggn Bay into central ON (20-40 cms).

 

lol :weenie:

 

this could be the Telemundo guy

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

My call would be 12-18 inches in Chicago, 10-15 in portions of lower Michigan north of a Jackson to Flint line although close to that line storm goes rain to snow, so best accumulations in MI around GRR to APN, and also 10-15 in s.e. corner of WI trending to 8 inches MKE and 3 inches Sheboygan.

 

The 12-18 swath tapers to 10-15 again south-southwest of ORD but extends to STL, trend is rapidly down to 5-10 near LAF to PAH and almost zero snow in most of IN, w OH except for tail end of storm which could give 1-3 inches.

 

In Ontario, can see how it starts with some snow, changes to ZR then all rain, back to sleet and snow. Totals something like 5 cms for London to Hamilton, 8-12 cms Toronto, heavier amounts around s Ggn Bay into central ON (20-40 cms).

 

lol.

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