MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hmmmm... 4K NAM has good radar returns over our area for the next several hours, yet no precipitation. Does anybody know if the simulated radar is composite? Because I seriously doubt we virga for that long with 25-35 DBZ returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM is a tick lighter on precipitation amounts. looks like we get dryslotted at around 7 AM tomorrow. Still a solid 2-4" before a change to ZR. 4K is rolling, lets see if it has the dryslot as well. we're in a better spot than most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 4k never really dryslots from DC south..keeps southern burbs on periphery even after initial thump in a few hours Is that the 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hmmmm... 4K NAM has good radar returns over our area for the next several hours, yet no precipitation. Does anybody know if the simulated radar is composite? Because I seriously doubt we virga for that long with 25-35 DBZ returns. it's going to snow soon, and yes, 4k has accumulation....1/2"+ for me and you by 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Quick question did any of the models have a start time around DC of midnight? I dont recall any. HRRR was showing that this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HighStakes got the prize ..sorry Hit 19 here briefly this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 we're in a better spot than most... hopefully. I still expect a (your screen-name) to set up Monday afternoon while we get light drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Snowing good in Chesterfield. Temp dropped from 26 to 25 and dew point went up from 1 to 10 in about 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The latest lwx max potential map looks suspicious with 4" region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Based on radar, I think DC gets snow by 1030pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM not great for far northern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Quick question did any of the models have a start time around DC of midnight? I dont recall any. Most do now I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Snowing good in Chesterfield. Temp dropped from 26 to 25 and dew point went up from 1 to 10 in about 20 minutes Great news. I hope my column is moistened tonight, like yours is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Look where the low is at 33. It's pulling that 850 line a lot closer to western areas than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looks like 3-5 on the 00z NAM for DC, no? iwm shows 6" for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The latest lwx max potential map looks suspicious with 4" region wide. everything is becoming kind of choppy...an initial thump - which may be localized....then some dryslotting especially north of DC....then a precip shield outracing the changeover....There is some good bust potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 15 hours under the blue, some of course is virga. You gotta love the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 everything is becoming kind of choppy...an initial thump - which may be localized....then some dryslotting especially north of DC....then a precip shield outracing the changeover....There is some good bust potentialI actually think you especially are looking pretty good for this to overperform compared to your forecast you put out earlier Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looks pretty dry on the NAM overnight tomorrow before the deluge comes in during the morning on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 everything is becoming kind of choppy...an initial thump - which may be localized....then some dryslotting especially north of DC....then a precip shield outracing the changeover....There is some good bust potential Yep, I'd take the NAM in a heartbeat as it gives me almost 4 inches, I've got my doubts for my house but it likes south better than north because of the initial thump is there longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I actually think you especially are looking pretty good for this to overperform compared to your forecast you put out earlier Matt. I'm in a pretty good spot, especially if this initial thump over the next 5 hours performs. Still. I could end up being on the northern edge of the good stuff and then end up in a race against the flip. This is a very imperfect event. I'm happy with my 2-3" call for MBY. It will be fun to let it unfold and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 DCA reaches 32 at 10pm and 35 at 4am based off 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM 4 KM has a narsty dryslot that licks DC from 3-8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Light snow in Short Pump now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm in a pretty good spot, especially if this initial thump over the next 5 hours performs. Still. I could end up being on the northern edge of the good stuff and then end up in a race against the flip. This is a very imperfect event. I'm happy with my 2-3" call for MBY. It will be fun to let it unfold and see what happens.Based on what I see with radar, I do think those north of Baltimore should still get on in decent stuff with the thump and ratios could really perform. Very cold aloft and decent lift with the reasonably strong waa over this cold dome in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM 4 KM has a narsty dryslot that licks DC from 3-8 AM. Its going to start snowing in like an hour...I'm focused on that...maybe we can sneak in 1-2" by 2-3 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM not great for far northern burbs. Meh, wasn't ever supposed to be that good for me up here. 1-3" seems like a solid get imby. Hope you cash in tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Latest LWX snow map shows the heavier finger creeping northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Narsty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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