• Member Statistics

    16,019
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BlckJckKhoWX
    Newest Member
    BlckJckKhoWX
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Ji

Presidents Day storm Part 2

Recommended Posts

Per Bufkit, 6Z GFS is 0.92" of freezing rain here with temps in the upper 20s. :yikes: Guess we will see if things trend warmer with the 12Z suite.

That would be crippling. Worried we're missing the real story here which is the ice accumulation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we could even see some ice in West PW...we can hold CAD for a bit..not like 81 but way longer than immediate metro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ice is definitely possible. Most guidance other than the Euro keeps max temps for the event in the mid 30's and give northern md southern pa a 6 hr or longer period of zr. Probably not much of a concern for the metros but for us it could be a much different story. 

I think there is a very distinct possibility of a somewhat significant icing event for the farther western and northern areas. Think the surface winds will play a major part. Do we see a more easterly component to the direction of the wind where it is pushing the colder temps into the mountains vs a southerly wind that has free rein to scour out the surface? Another factor that needs to be considered besides the surface is the direction of the winds in the lower levels up to 925mb. If we have a fairly deep layer of 50+ degrees coming on southerly winds then you have the rain warming as it falls through and that can scour out the colder surface temps fairly quickly as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z NAM is a nice front end thump for all of us.

 

4K looks good as well. Has snow in the area very early morning Monday.

Looks like around 4" +/-

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z NAM continues to support a 3-5 inch event for DC area - going by IWM. Might be closer to 2-4 in reality but a good 8/9 hour window for decent snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can't remember the last time an ice storm was as bad as modeled.

Early Feb. 2014. That was a pretty bad one up in Millersville. Lost a lot of trees and power was gone all over the place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Early Feb. 2014. That was a pretty bad one up in Millersville. Lost a lot of trees and power was gone all over the place.

Think that was the storm that took down a pine onto our power line running to the house. Want to say we had .75 + inches of ice with that storm if I remember correctly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM has light snow starting late Sunday night, throughout the day on Monday accumulating 4-8" before turning to what looks like ZR Monday night with temperatures at or just below freezing. then we dryslot. Then it has heavy rain at 32 degrees. People were saying that it was back-end snow but it looks like really cold rain, as the upper levels warm above freezing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM has light snow starting late Sunday night, throughout the day on Monday accumulating 4-8" before turning to what looks like ZR Monday night with temperatures at or just below freezing. then we dryslot. Then it has heavy rain at 32 degrees. People were saying that it was back-end snow but it looks like really cold rain, as the upper levels warm above freezing.

Interesting. My criteria for a successful event would be a WSW and this would probably do the trick.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Early Feb. 2014. That was a pretty bad one up in Millersville. Lost a lot of trees and power was gone all over the place.

 

 

at the time I lived in West Chester in pa, one of the worst ice storms ive ever experienced. got about .75" of ice. just nasty didn't have power for a week. although I don't know if we will ever get an ice storm like we had in the mid 90s, that was something else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so is there a real shot at some heavy snow on the backside as the 850s crash? I know the surface is a hot mess by that point, but does the idea that it could it still switch back to heavy snow have merit?

 

 

Actually the NAM is the exact opposite. The surface is right around freezing but the 850s are still above. Thats why we have 32 degree heavy rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Early Feb. 2014. That was a pretty bad one up in Millersville. Lost a lot of trees and power was gone all over the place.

Yeah, that one brought down a couple of big trees here. Had to spend about a hour with the chain saw to get my neighbor out of her long driveway. About a 60 ft cherry landed right across it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess I shouldn't have said back end snow, Im still  learning, but thought when I saw the 0 line to the east of precip, that it was snow. Ill just keep my mouth shut and let the pros handle it lol. Still looks more then a rain storm though :whistle:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually the NAM is the exact opposite. The surface is right around freezing but the 850s are still above. Thats why we have 32 degree heavy rain.

 

im not sure thats true, this clearly shows the 850s are very cold  and we are under the 534dm line, surface freezing line is well into PA however. i know im not looking at sounding so i cant see all levels, but from this map i would have thought that would be a transition back to some snow as it pulls away

 

NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f75.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, that one brought down a couple of big trees here. Had to spend about a hour with the chain saw to get my neighbor out of her long driveway. About a 60 ft cherry landed right across it.

Yeah. That storm was ugly in the northern tier and into Southern PA to out your way along the 81 corridor. HGR got a bunch of ZR from that too. These CAD wedges are hard to predict, but the shorter range models all seem to be leaning toward a favorable wedge for the usual spots.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.