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February 15-17th Storm Threat


OHweather

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I really tried not to get too hyped up about this... But things are looking pretty decent. There's been pretty good consistency now on there being a narrow band of nice accumulations, and Licking County keeps showing up near/in that zone.

 

Still, with as narrow as that zone is going to be, I'm not going to get my hopes up until I start seeing it materialize.

 

HRRRX showing a nice band of accumulation along the I-71 corridor.

 

acsnw_t3esblmn_f23.png

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In the NWS's defense though of holding back on advisories/warnings based on the HRRR, I have seen it bust before on borderline snow events, specifically in the Indiana/Ohio area. However, nearly every model is showing the band at this point...if the 15Z SREF comes in more aggressive, I think we'll see some warnings/advisories put up.

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Taking bets...will we get a WSW or a WWA for our area!! Things are trending better and not much time left!!

 

starting to get some decent consensus on at least a low end warning criteria for parts of the ILN area.   I'm feeling cautiously optimistic that we'll see a warning issued for Franklin, Delaware, Licking, and Fairfeld counties.   The question is areas like Madison, Union, Fayette.... HRRR says yes, but most of the models are still favoring the axis a tad east of that.

 

I guess the other thing they could do is issue WWA's for something like 2-5" leaving the option open to nowcast a warning upgrade.

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8-15" for our region. I told you were not a synoptic desert canuck. ;)

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENINGTO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.* TIMING...FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES  TUESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES.

post-36-0-83885100-1455541877.png

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8-15" for our region. I told you were not a synoptic desert canuck. ;)

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENINGTO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.* TIMING...FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES  TUESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES.

post-36-0-83885100-1455541877.png

I think the 12z might be tad bit higher, BUF stays all snow and the mix line is right by ROC throughout the run.

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omg....that's terrible! Don is a treasure. I kind of stopped watching him though when the paired him with other dude. I think his name is Santos? Just didn't do it for me. The force that is The Paul needs no help.

 

I agree he was the last one I really watched. Hopefully they get a good replacement, obviously don is irreplaceable though.

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HRRRX has a nice 12-18" over Port Colborne by 10am tomorrow and the precip isn't even done yet, insanity.. :stun:

 

 

11:23 AM EST Monday 15 February 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:

  • Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region
  • St. Catharines - Grimsby - Northern Niagara Region

Winter storm threatening overnight Tonight and Tuesday.

A low pressure system developing over Texas is expected to approach the lower Great lakes Tuesday morning. This system is expected to intensify into a winter storm and impact portions of eastern Ontario and possibly the Niagara region.

Snow is forecast to move north across the international border near dawn and linger for much of the day. Snowfall amounts will depend upon the exact nature of the Low track but current information suggests total snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm.

Travelling conditions may become hazardous due to poor visibilities in accumulating snow.

Environment Canada is closely monitoring this situation. Winter storm warnings are likely to follow this afternoon as more information becomes available.

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Worst case scenario for Central Ohio would be that everyone buys the recent trends for more of a snow event, warnings or advisories go up... and the event ends up being rain anyway.  I could totally see that happening. 

 

Precip just now crossing the river, so we'll know soon enough.

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Worst case scenario for Central Ohio would be that everyone buys the recent trends for more of a snow event, warnings or advisories go up... and the event ends up being rain anyway.  I could totally see that happening. 

 

When we are this close to an event and I can't decide whether we get screwed due to precip-type issues or being missed, it usually means we're in good shape  :lol:

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