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BuffaloWeather

Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!

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Buf is insistent on warming us above freezing tomorrow aftn. I dont agree. Rgem hrgrem and 4km nam do not warm above 31 degrees. These mesos tend to do better for 2m temps in ene winds north of a warm front.

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Buf is insistent on warming us above freezing tomorrow aftn. I dont agree. Rgem hrgrem and 4km nam do not warm above 31 degrees. These mesos tend to do better for 2m temps in ene winds north of a warm front.

CMC-REG is pretty consistent on BUF being on the icy mix line while north of it gets heavy snow and the southern portion get rain/snow mix, I'm thinking 8-10" for Northern Erie county into Niagara and 4-6" for BUF south towns with significant freezing rain accumulation.

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ice-disruptive.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=ice-crippling.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7

 

I wouldn't say 0.5" of ice is 'crippling' in upstate NY. Closer to 1", sure. In my experience, large branches and trees don't really start coming down until greater than 0.5", but sure you can have some limbs down and isolated power outages with less than that. In any case, I can't imagine too many places seeing 0.25" freezing rain accretion with this set-up, let alone 0.5".

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Dave Longley from channel 9 in Syracuse posted this map on facebook.

Thinking he's a bit low, but we'll see.

I went to school with Dave and interned at channel 9 w/Eichorn many moons ago.

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So to recap a few forecast calls...

The NWS giving weenies hope since 2014... ed0175ba863c89b698fc6e73581f74d8.jpg

Arron seems a bit unsure about his numbers... 5f0f1bc181d7535f0cf8ce8127728796.jpg

Todd looks stoked about his map!

5e996e0ee7519117de9d6ec9002e8ebe.jpg

And Kevin didn't want to be seen on screen with his forecast.

881aac532afb22a728db1998c40cb0ab.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I'm feeling pretty confident in my location at this point. I'm at least all frozen in some form or another for the duration of the event. Not much of a buzz about it in the roc though.....yet

It's nocturnal peak will help us with accumulations. I think the Wednesday morning commute will be a trainwreck again.

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I wouldn't say 0.5" of ice is 'crippling' in upstate NY. Closer to 1", sure. In my experience, large branches and trees don't really start coming down until greater than 0.5", but sure you can have some limbs down and isolated power outages with less than that. In any case, I can't imagine too many places seeing 0.25" freezing rain accretion with this set-up, let alone 0.5".

Actually sat in on a seminar with NWSFO Albany quite a few years ago and its actually closer to 2" of ice that is bad. 1/2"-1" is bad IF ice accretion is accompanied by strong winds. 

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Actually sat in on a seminar with NWSFO Albany quite a few years ago and its actually closer to 2" of ice that is bad. 1/2"-1" is bad IF ice accretion is accompanied by strong winds.

That's rubbish. All hell breaks lose by 1". I've seen storms with even less than that cause signicant issues.

That said, this is a tough thing to quantify as there are many variables such as tree type, wind, amount of time since last ice event, time of year, Etc. But my god, to say that 1 inch isn't that bad unless there are strong winds is just crazy.

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So to recap a few forecast calls...

The NWS giving weenies hope since 2014... ed0175ba863c89b698fc6e73581f74d8.jpg

Arron seems a bit unsure about his numbers... 5f0f1bc181d7535f0cf8ce8127728796.jpg

Todd looks stoked about his map!

5e996e0ee7519117de9d6ec9002e8ebe.jpg

And Kevin didn't want to be seen on screen with his forecast.

881aac532afb22a728db1998c40cb0ab.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think he's trying to figure out what the freak he's thinking with all those contours.  Maybe he's really going out on a limb predicting accumulations down to the tenth of an inch...

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I think he's trying to figure out what the freak he's thinking with all those contours. Maybe he's really going out on a limb predicting accumulations down to the tenth of an inch...

Lol, went to school Aaron...and Brandolino as well. We had a lot of fun...

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Lol, went to school Aaron...and Brandolino as well. We had a lot of fun...

Nice.  It would be cool if one of the on-air mets was active on this board.  Match wits with the likes of OSU, Delta, etc.  See if you can recruit one of them...

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That's rubbish. All hell breaks lose by 1". I've seen storms with even less than that cause signicant issues.

That said, this is a tough thing to quantify as there are many variables such as tree type, wind, amount of time since last ice event, time of year, Etc. But my god, to say that 1 inch isn't that bad unless there are strong winds is just crazy.

Well that's what the research showed. Just saying. 

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What did you guys get out of the December 21, 2013 storm? It wasa crippling ice storm in Toronto. Did you guys get plain rain?

I remember being in Grand Island during that storm, and we ended up with maybe .25-.5 there. It was enough to bring down some branches, but nothing too extreme.

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Im almost sure buf will get less than 4 inches at this point. Ip/zr will last too long with an 850 low to our north. Rgem nam and gfs are on board with this.

 

I'll take it, was hoping for a nice ice storm. How much ice are you thinking?

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Not that much. Im think 1/4 inch at most. Qpf isnt great and some of it might just ip and not zr.

 

Well we have another week left of winter to enjoy before we head to near 70 late next week. I'll enjoy whatever we get and be ready to move on to some nice weather.

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No ice to be seen on what is usually the most covered the lake gets. Reminds me of 2012. The good thing about no ice it means the cool lake breeze that persists until late April due to the ice on the lake will not be present. It will allow us to get some nice temps earlier than usual.

 

a1.16059.1854.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg

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No ice to be seen on what is usually the most covered the lake gets. Reminds me of 2012. The good thing about no ice it means the cool lake breeze that persists until late April due to the ice on the lake will not be present. It will allow us to get some nice temps earlier than usual.

 

 

Looks like my "theory" about little or no ice cover translating to severely below average snowfall will hold up this year.  I posted some stats on this a year or 2 ago.  You usually start to hear talk by mid January when the lake isn't iced up that we'll be hit hard by lake effect.  But the patterns that lock in to keep the lake ice free are hostile to lake effect.  I think the stats show that the highest snow years in BUF occur when the lake freezes either on time or earlier than normal.  

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Gonna be almost all rain here, and I'm happy about it. Winter is done in my mind now, so bring the warmth! Euro advertising 70F temps next week :)

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Looks like my "theory" about little or no ice cover translating to severely below average snowfall will hold up this year.  I posted some stats on this a year or 2 ago.  You usually start to hear talk by mid January when the lake isn't iced up that we'll be hit hard by lake effect.  But the patterns that lock in to keep the lake ice free are hostile to lake effect.  I think the stats show that the highest snow years in BUF occur when the lake freezes either on time or earlier than normal.  

 

Well yeah, when the lake freezes up it means there was an extensive period of colder than 32 deg weather...Which more often than not leads to a greater chance of synoptic snow/LES. This year there was literally no cold, due to El Nino. There was a 2 week period in early Jan, and a week in Feb? That was about it for cold/snow. Years in which lake Erie completely freezes (69%) are years with above average snowfall due to the sheer higher probability of receiving precipitations in the form of snow. The longer it stays cold, the greater opportunity there is to receive a higher yearly snowfall total. With the lake open in Feb, we could have received an epic dumping like 2007, instead we were warm as usual due to El Nino.

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I'll wait for the Canadian and euro before I give up on this..

Canadian bumped northwest too.  It's still really close though for northern Erie points north, so would only take a minor nudge back south to get into the heavier snow.  But trends are certainly not moving in that direction tonight.  

 

post-1195-0-37023800-1456807258_thumb.pn

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Looks like my "theory" about little or no ice cover translating to severely below average snowfall will hold up this year.  I posted some stats on this a year or 2 ago.  You usually start to hear talk by mid January when the lake isn't iced up that we'll be hit hard by lake effect.  But the patterns that lock in to keep the lake ice free are hostile to lake effect.  I think the stats show that the highest snow years in BUF occur when the lake freezes either on time or earlier than normal.  

 

Basically it boils down to this, "any winter in which temperatures are average/below average for the majority of winter (Late Nov-March) will almost certainly also be above normal in the snowfall department."

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Basically it boils down to this, "any winter in which temperatures are average/below average for the majority of winter (Late Nov-March) will almost certainly also be above normal in the snowfall department."

Yep, pretty much as simple as that.  Those temps next week look crazy!  Was surprised to see that - been trakcing this upcoming storm  the last few days and never made it past day 5 on the models...

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