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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!


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Really hoping that doesn't verify. After our taste of spring the last few weeks, going back to colder weather will be rough.

Yea, from the looks of it, gfs is farther north with the warm front, euro furtheast south.  ECMWF south of the UKMET, then the gem/nam, then the gfs.  GFS is usually horrible at handling low level cold air drainage anyway.  Maybe some big snows from Michigan into Ontario.  

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KBUF HWO:

 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX...
INCLUDING LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

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Looks like Devin might cash in on some good snow over the next day or so. Hopefully he can cash in before he moves back later this year.

 

 

 

 

Observer in Westerly reported 2.3 inches. Event busted low to south and east, although higher elevation spots like Mount Tolland verified warning criteria (barely). RIP winter 2015-16.

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Hey guys, i actually live in Warwick, RI now which is about 45 minutes NE of Westerly but I still did pretty poor here as well. About 4" here all of which was gone by 3pm. Woke up to only 2 1/2" around 6am and caught a nice burst of snow between 8-9am which dropped another inch and a half bringing me to 4". As soon as the sun came out at noon it was all gone by 3. That's a melting rate of over 1"/hr lol.

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Hey guys, i actually live in Warwick, RI now which is about 45 minutes NE of Westerly but I still did pretty poor here as well. About 4" here all of which was gone by 3pm. Woke up to only 2 1/2" around 6am and caught a nice burst of snow between 8-9am which dropped another inch and a half bringing me to 4". As soon as the sun came out at noon it was all gone by 3. That's a melting rate of over 1"/hr lol.

 

Still a pretty good event for late March. Some good rates in some of those bands for awhile. Can't expect much to stick around anywhere this late in the season.

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Two things to watch going forward for the wintry event potential Wednesday night into Friday...the strength of the confluence over Quebec provided by the big storm going through the maritimes right now, and then the strength of the ohio valley low. 

 

I'm thinking there is just to much warm air to get any meaningful ice across WNY. I think the Tug has a much better chance of staying cold enough for ice, the system is just going to far NW and will flood us with some warm air.

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We jumped up to 41° and the snow is sticking to the grass...

 

 

Picked up a quick inch of snow here lol... don't think it snowed that hard all winter haha. Crazy weather.

 

Yeah we had off and on snow all day with coatings that came and melted. Some really good burst of snow at time throughout the afternoon.

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Who is ready for some April lake effect snow. ^_^

gfs_T700_us_40.png

its super far out there but there has been several runs in a row showing some really cold temps in that timeframe. I mean for April -25C 850s has to be a record for this area.That's insane. That's like single digit to low teen highs even in with the sun angle. Sure it won't even come close to verifying but definitley shows that there is some potential for some real cold during that period. Even -15C would be pretty dang cold for April and with very warm lakes there probably would be some good lake effect snow, especially at night once the diurnal effects of the strong April sun wear off and allow the what would likely be very cellular bands of lake effect during the day to consolidate into solid bands of lake effect...I know I know I need to slow down, getting WAY ahead of myself.
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its super far out there but there has been several runs in a row showing some really cold temps in that timeframe. I mean for April -25C 850s has to be a record for this area.That's insane. That's like single digit to low teen highs even in with the sun angle. Sure it won't even come close to verifying but definitley shows that there is some potential for some real cold during that period. Even -15C would be pretty dang cold for April and with very warm lakes there probably would be some good lake effect snow, especially at night once the diurnal effects of the strong April sun wear off and allow the what would likely be very cellular bands of lake effect during the day to consolidate into solid bands of lake effect...I know I know I need to slow down, getting WAY ahead of myself.

 

Haha! At least you're finally hopping on the fun train, would be cool to see but all cold air this season beyond 7 days never comes to fruition. Lake Erie will be near 40 degs by that time so won't take much to get some lift.

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While it didn't gather the same amount of attention as the BUF/ROC temperature gradient last night, there was an even tighter gradient just north of the Tug Hill last night. At one point last night, Watertown was at 29F while Fort Drum, about 15 miles away, sat at 50. 

 

More fun stats: 

 

Fort Drum (KGTB) record the following hourly observations over a period of 6 hours: 

 

29F... E @ 2mph

49F... S @ 16mph

50F... SE @ 8mph

51F... SE @ 10mph

51F... S 29 G 39 mph

31F... NW @ 5mph. 

 

With an intra hour 58F max. After that 31F observation they managed to rise back up to 51F later in the night. 

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