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GHD III possible Winter Storm February 1st-3rd


Thundersnow12

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Well, at least the CMC looks better organized at 180 than it did at 12z.

 

Edit: And, of course, it starts to fall apart after that. FailFish

 

The double barrel low look is so strange looking. Hopefully the EURO and organized tonight.

 

CMC snowfall map

 

Z9Ngy1y.gif

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System needs to dig a little more and slow slightly to allow that high to build down more. Combine that with the low ejecting out near Amarillo and I think that would be an ideal track for most of us.

 

I don't think the pac jet is conducive to digging, it's going to lead to a relatively timely ejection into an environment highly favorable rapid clycogenesis and a hard cut. The number of GEFS showing further south/snowy solutions in our back yard is steadily on the decline.

 

Lots can happen when you are 150+ hours out but this hits about every box on the western lakes cutter checklist.

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We were already seeing slow but steady movement northwest/stronger with the mean SLP over the region but 6z was a telling jump...I think we're moving quickly towards consensus for a major west lakes cutter.

 

Seasonal patterns are hard to ignore, this one had a marginal chances out of the gate for our region.

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Yep, I'm ready for more cold rain, hopefully a warm rain though where it gets above 40F! Might as well in this pattern.

 

GEFS and EPS still have favorable track for us.As long as they forecast a track south of lake Michigan the casino is open for betting.

 

;Longs way to go on this yet and trying to find trend on run to run OP out put for 8-9 days  from now is just going to wear you out..

 

Of course the 3 inches of snow we got last night may be making me an more than usually hopeful at this point.

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GFS looks like it starts off as a fair amount of sleet for N Illinois.

 

Yeah, a repeat of 12/28 around here. If piece of energy come out in pieces, the main storm will not have all the energy as it would being together, probably end up with a solution like the GGEM.

 

Would definitely take that.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

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