yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nice map Ellinwood and looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No way that happens with any kind of easterly flow, IMO. Never does. Don't sweat it too much...I don't see you getting dry slotted like that....Stick with the Euro... Yeah, I don't think that's how it plays out either, but it's just odd for the GFS to continually show that when - for the most part - the other models haven't. I'm just curious as to why. Maybe it thinks the BR are the Rockies? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 we're going to have to start a thread about snow measurement later or tomorrow. Is there anyway to properly do that in this type of storm?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Is there anyway to properly do that in this type of storm?. we'll start a thread later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 we'll start a thread later... Thanks Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It looks like some high ratio (15:1+?) snow is possible to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z GGEM crush at hr 42 and 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Is there anyway to properly do that in this type of storm?. When it's a windy storm, I just walk around and look for areas where the snow surface appears most consistent (and away from structures, obviously) and take many measurements to get an average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z GGEM crush at hr 42 and 48 And at 54... 0.75 QPF marker touches DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Is there anyway to properly do that in this type of storm?. For those that can't wait for the standalone thread: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/reference/Snow_Measurement_Guidelines.pdf http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/MeasuringSnow.pdf (CoCoRaHs guide) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It looks like some high ratio (15:1+?) snow is possible to my untrained eye. Thanks for that. That period around 9z looks good for some fatties. You want to see that upward motion inside the dendrite growth zone. Would be a bit more ideal for that to be lower in the atmosphere closer to 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Models are pretty consistent with gusts in 30's and 40's during daylight hours on Sat. Some 60's near and over the bay. Wes might need to weld his deck chairs to the deck. Thanks. Sustained in the 20k range for metro area? 60k gusts are nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Despite ratio talk before every storm we always end up being 10-12:1 around these parts. So 11:1 is a good guesstimate I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think the GFS is a bit too far east....Even though it is getting the general idea right, I would probably stick with euro/para euro for now....i don't think the NAM is in range yet to take too seriously.... I think the heaviest axis of snow will set up west of Baltimore down to Fauqier County 6z Para GFS agrees...2.5"+ for this axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Big snows tend to compact esp with winds even if you get high ratios. No sense in getting too into the weeds on that.. assume near avg for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 48 posted above... here is hr 60... SLP moves slowly E between hrs 48 and 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET deform band at 60 is pure pron... awesome... meteogram should be out in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Eyeballing, GGEM looks like around 2.1" for DC...I don't have accumulation maps yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GGEM with Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GGEM with QPF...looks like 2.0-2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Close up, QPF of CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GGEM with QPF...looks like 2.0-2.5" yeah, just saw SV maps and ..looks like around 2.1-2.2 for me and you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Close up, QPF of CMC Thanks...weatherbell quicker than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The CMC would keep many parts of SE VA all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like around 2" QPF for DCA based off 12z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gem by far is the most SE now off all the other models. UK-GFS-NAM are all clustered pretty close in terms of 500mb 700mb and precip placement . some synoptic differences but overall solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canadian came in pretty far south with the 1" QPF line bordering the mason-Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I still can't believe the GFS for BWI SAT 00Z 23-JAN -2.4 -5.1 1022 75 99 0.03 553 536 SAT 06Z 23-JAN -3.2 -2.2 1014 97 99 0.37 550 539 SAT 12Z 23-JAN -2.6 -1.8 1006 93 100 0.66 544 539 SAT 18Z 23-JAN -1.9 -6.0 1005 97 100 1.01 540 536 SUN 00Z 24-JAN -1.3 -4.8 1007 91 99 0.50 540 535 SUN 06Z 24-JAN -2.6 -2.3 1010 90 99 0.17 544 536 SUN 12Z 24-JAN -7.1 -2.1 1014 80 4 0.02 549 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canadian came in pretty far south with the 1" QPF line bordering the mason-Dixon. I think what all the models are now showing is that there will be a brick wall to our north. The max qpf is going to fall in the areas when the initial thump can go no further, stalls, and then the CBB comes back at them/me/us/some lucky bastid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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