sauss06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 qpf wise MDT ~ 1.5", IPT ~ .05", THV ~ 1.75", LNS ~ 1.65", AOO ~ .45" so a quick drop off north and west of MDT York, Lancaster, Adams etc are gonna get smoked. I think we could be in double digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 for perspective last night the 1" qpf ran parallell to 81/78 across eastern PA about 10 miles south of 78. This run it has the same trajectory but it moved to about 10 miles north of 78. Goes right through Pine Grove for example where last run they were about .6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 All these people saying "great run!"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 very sharp cutoff again, edge starting to show itself but good run for southeastern 1/3 again. These are quick glance qpf numbers LNS 1.9 York 1.9 ABE: 1.0 RDG: 1.3 MDT: 1.2 UNV 0.1 very very sharp cutoff from 1" to almost nothing in just 20-30 miles runs from just NW of garrett county MD northeast to near east stroudsburgh PA. worrying about exactly where it is on each run is pointless until we are within 24 hours but thats about where it is on this run. Does anything get into Pgh area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Does anything get into Pgh area? no sharp edge is about 20-30 miles to your southeast. Basically the NW tip of Garrett County MD is at 1" qpf and it starts going down FAST going NW from there. that count to the NW of Garrett goes from 1" along its southeat tip to only .1 on the nw side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Gotta think the ratios will be pretty good. Might start lower but as the storm bombs there should be some fluff factor incoming. I could see later in the storm maybe as high as 15:1 but that's pure blind speculation at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 All these people saying "great run!"... sorry... the models in the last 24 hours have converged on that northern fringe and for now it runs across pa from somerset area across the turnpike to Harrisburgh then along 78 from there. NW of there things drop off a cliff fast. Now that is where they all have the edge now, doesnt mean it wont trend north from here but for now they all seem to be hinting at that break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Also of note, the later start on the Euro. Flakes don't fly in the LSV until early Saturday...worst arrives Saturday afternoon. Front end thump seems like it won't be much of a factor, as the orientation and track doesn't look right for that on the Euro. Our forum will be counting on what the CCB does on the north/northwest side of the low. It has trended in our favor and there is still time to go. I love the look of the NAM/GFS/GGEM/JMA/Euro this morning for the southeastern 1/3 of PA, basically south of turnpike from laurels to harrisburg then south of 78, so dont take this as a downer, but the bust potential is higher then it would seem given the agreement of the globals because this has evolved into relying on the CCB and deform banding instead of a nice WAA front end thump before bonus later. While that does not mean we don't get a nice end result, those things are more complicated for models to nail down even from this far out. The trend south of the primary and earlier transfer to a secondary along the GA/SC coast instead of further north means the WAA thump probably cuts off before doing much into PA and we have to wait nervously for the low to get up here and give us some ccb love and hope for banding to set up. Exciting but more risky then if we had a foot in the bank from WAA before the low even occluded and wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Need to get that line north of 80 for everybody before we say its a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thanks, everyone. DJR thanks for the PBP. My first guess: MDT: 8-12" LNS: 10-14" York: 12-16" State College: 1-3" Cashtown: 20-24" NEP: 8-12" Altoona: ---- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I love the look of the NAM/GFS/GGEM/JMA/Euro this morning for the southeastern 1/3 of PA, basically south of turnpike from laurels to harrisburg then south of 78, so dont take this as a downer, but the bust potential is higher then it would seem given the agreement of the globals because this has evolved into relying on the CCB and deform banding instead of a nice WAA front end thump before bonus later. While that does not mean we don't get a nice end result, those things are more complicated for models to nail down even from this far out. The trend south of the primary and earlier transfer to a secondary along the GA/SC coast instead of further north means the WAA thump probably cuts off before doing much into PA and we have to wait nervously for the low to get up here and give us some ccb love and hope for banding to set up. Exciting but more risky then if we had a foot in the bank from WAA before the low even occluded and wrapped up. Could the models be doing this because of the system being so amped up with so much moisture that the convection developing near the coast is creating rapid pressure falls so the models jump the low to the coast faster? Or is what I mentioned the reason why a quicker jump would occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Need to get that line north of 80 for everybody before we say its a great run. True, but honestly the UNV IPT and AVP bunch should know good accumulations are highly unlikely. Still real good for southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 All these people saying "great run!"... We feel your pain in the Pittsburgh thread... it sucks, but somebody is always on the outside looking in. These sharp cutoffs just rip your heart out if your on the wrong side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 True, but honestly the UNV IPT and AVP bunch should know good accumulations are highly unlikely. Still real good for southern PA. road trip to Shrewsberry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not if you're in State College. All these people saying "great run!"... I feel your pain as well...It sucks for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 road trip to Shrewsberry Let's do it up!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From Mark Ellinwood in MA forum. Sounds reasonable....for now. Lets hope to bump this up north 75 miles eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Woooooo I'm taking that .05 to da' bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Could the models be doing this because of the system being so amped up with so much moisture that the convection developing near the coast is creating rapid pressure falls so the models jump the low to the coast faster? Or is what I mentioned the reason why a quicker jump would occur? the guidance has all trended south with the H5 track and that of course dictates where the initial low and eventual secondary track and develop. Its simply shifted south thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From Mark Ellinwood in MA forum. Sounds reasonable....for now. Lets hope to bump this up north 75 miles eh? Nothing here? edit- disregard it showed now. Mark is pretty good. I like to read what he posts, i hope he is as acurate with this as others he has done in the past. It certainly seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Honest question, what happened to all the monsters that came from gulf all the way up? It seems they get so far north, transfer and slides east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So the double gut punch scenario it is...this hobby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So the double gut punch scenario it is...this hobby... Cheaper than being an alcoholic, but not as good for you healthwise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i dont think were done with this yet gang.... May not be in our favor....or maybe it will. Still holding onto the N correction inside 48 as I've said several times in the last couple days. Just like the GFS.... I too may be wrong Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i dont think were done with this yet gang.... May not be in our favor....or maybe it will. Still holding onto the N correction inside 48 as I've said several times in the last couple days. Just like the GFS.... I too may be wrong Nut We have basically been high and dry for a long time, i'll take whatever mother nature throws at us and will be happy about it. If i get 6" great, if i get 12 awesome, i get 24" bring an AED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm kinda hoping it wrings itself out over Harrisburg and we get little. I'm a weirdo but I'd rather not clean up 2 or 3 inches, I'd rather watch someone in the forum get smoked. I have a feeling I 83 blizzard gets 32". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cheaper than being an alcoholic, but not as good for you healthwise! It drives me to alcohol (this is a complete lie,I love brews). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From Bob chill Last time it probably means anything...euro ens backed off a touch on mean precip south of DCA but increased the 1.6"/1.8" contours northward. 1" line moved farther into PA. Folks to our N will like this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the trend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the trend is your friend. 18z NAM is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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