Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This isn't even going to be close to 18z in terms of LE. This isn't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A big chunk of the area dry slots on Saturday as well before any wrap around snows fill in. You're looking at around 12-15 hours of moderate snows on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I literally have no idea why some are complaining about this run. The CCB is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I would expect model fluctuations this far out. Will see what the rest of the suite shows. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I literally have no idea why some are complaining about this run. The CCB is insane Because yanks only sees QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I literally have no idea why some are complaining about this run. The CCB is insane I hope you know that this isn't all snow for nyc metro. There's sleet mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This isn't right. The 1.75"+ contour shifted from just SW of NYC to Philly. Probably about a 75 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Still a very impressive outcome. If anything, it looks a little better for coastal areas than 18z. The ridiculously heavy snow doesn't make it quite as far north in PA but still very respectable for anyone in this subforum, even up through SNE. The DC/Baltimore areas get iffy for a time, but the back end snows crush them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Still a very impressive outcome. If anything, it looks a little better for coastal areas than 18z. The ridiculously heavy snow doesn't make it quite as far north in PA but still very respectable for anyone in this subforum, even up through SNE. The DC/Baltimore areas get iffy for a time, but the back end snows crush them. Much better run for the coast. No mixing worries at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Because yanks only sees QPF I'm not complaining and I'm not looking at only QPF. It's not as good as 18z was. That doesn't make it a bad run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I hope you know that this isn't all snow for nyc metro. There's sleet mixed in To be blunt, I don't care at all if there's some taint this far out. That's something that we focus on two days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 1.75"+ contour shifted from just SW of NYC to Philly. Probably about a 75 mile shift. There are isolated 1.50" LE spots as far north as Albany and through the Poconos. 1.75" makes it to NYC by hour 132, when the snow finally shuts off. Not seeing the issue whatsoever this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lets put it this way: if we go down to 3-6 by tomorow's 12z People will be kissing the tukus of this run. Lets be greatful for anything we get, plus the learning opportunity of watching the dynamics of a monster like this is beyond great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 KNYC for the sake of argument at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I literally have no idea why some are complaining about this run. The CCB is insane This! Plus the front end thump. Idk what half of you are looking at. Awesome run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run has more snow for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Take a look for yourself http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_0z/gfsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 40 + hours of snow for NYC. 12+ on this run with a lot more to the west of the City. DC gets buried with 20+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Coastal areas get raked again this run with locally 50+ knot winds Saturday morning. Not sure of the high tide times there but that would be very bad timing if that's a high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 this run is better than 18z in my eyes. easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 00z run vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sorry for all the images, but here are the changes in the total snowfall of last 4 GFS model runs by 06z Sunday (are there really many changes?? It looks GREAT to me) : Newest 00z 18z 12z 6z Last night's 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This! Plus the front end thump. Idk what half of you are looking at. Awesome run. It snows for thirty freaking hours on the GFS. Hi-res output has 1.75" in NYC...front end thump is 10:1 and the CCB would likely be 15:1 The evolution is a lot more like the ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Good amount of precip our way. Majority of it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm not complaining and I'm not looking at only QPF. It's not as good as 18z was. That doesn't make it a bad run at all.to my eyes this is the best run the city got. All snow and it looks great for the entire forum. Most of Long Island shouldn't have any rain with this. This looks like a historic snowstorm and honestly I think those clown maps are underestimating the snow amounts we can really get with this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I guess it depends on where you live. I'd rather have it stronger and more tucked in because the heavier snows would be further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 15 inches in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Because yanks only sees QPF Exactly. I'm sorry, but if anyone thinks the models will key in on the extreme dynamic nature of the front dumb and subsequent CCB/Defo band, then you should probably take a break until the hi-res models are in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I guess it depends on where you live. I'd rather have it stronger and more tucked in because the heavier snows would be further inland. This is the best run yet for us up here... CCB looks to be overhead and rots overhead. 1.5"+ for most up here.. Precip amounts def went up from 18z thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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