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Ralph Wiggum

January 22-23 Storm Threat

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How many times can we get nam'd in a row before we start wondering if maybe.... :whistle:

Absolutely crushed this run, i mean destroyed! :-)

Is it right? Who knows, but it is beautiful to look at. Amazing!!!

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Wished we had a damn MET chime in here....."famartin" should be able to make a guest appearance for this one.

i'm no professional met, but I can tell you the NAM smokes our area.  im talking snow in feet, not inches.  NAM is often too amped though

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I know it's a different evolution but remember the 2015 March storm? Models consistently showed us and DC getting smoked, then models trended south 2 days before the event only to trend back N and bullseye us. Maybe it's recency bias, but I would favor a N trend over not.

That being said, my concern level is high considering I am 25 miles NW of Philly

I'm a couple exits west of you on 422, and I think we'll make out just fine. I should have posted 6 hours ago when a poster out in Rofo expressed concern, that I think we'll be closer to the highest totals (not saying we're in the jackpot zone) than not. We've got a little elevation and distance from the coast going for us to get less mixing, and we're not so far north that we need to worry about the cutoff. Otherwise I have no meteo knowledge to back this up, it's just my hunch on this one.

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hard to take it too seriously given that no other guidance shows this kind of extreme solution for our area, I think what you can take out of it is some optimism that there is room for this to come out north. 

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i'm no professional met, but I can tell you the NAM smokes our area.  im talking snow in feet, not inches.  NAM is often too amped though

NAM is the best model in this time frame, whatcha talking about :scooter:   :tomato:

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Onyl thing to take away with the NAM is @ 24 hours out it was significantly stronger.....which would probably be good for us down the line, so hopefully 00z models follow suite.

 

No one should even look at the NAM beyond 48 hours, how it plays out will change drastically run to run @ that range

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hard to take it too seriously given that no other guidance shows this kind of extreme solution for our area, I think what you can take out of it is some optimism that there is room for this to come out north.

Not the best group but jma, sref, nogaps from 18z all show similar. Start of something good? Not sure but we can dream. Still like where we're at regardless of the NAM 0z to be honest.

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The NAM brings up a point I made/asked way back in the early pages of this thread.....: Why have we always been capped by 1996? Surely that can one day (I'm not necessarily saying this storm) can be exceeded? SO WHY NOT THIS STORM?

 

Makes you think (I think). 

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We don't want the NAM going more north than that, lol. The QPF is likely overdone, but the north trend was what I want to see in the other models tonight. So this run is hopefully picking up on something.

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The NAM brings up a point I made/asked way back in the early pages of this thread.....: Why have we always been capped by 1996? Surely that can one day (I'm not necessarily saying this storm) can be exceeded? SO WHY NOT THIS STORM?

 

Makes you think (I think). 

I've been around too long and seen the NAM do this too many times--that is why people say "you've been NAM'd". This will not verify.  Like I said though maybe it is a sign of a northern movement, which would be good.

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