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Ralph Wiggum

January 22-23 Storm Threat

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Heard we still get a big hit here but takes longer to move in. Seems all evolutions so far are still nice.

Many runs and model perturbations to go, insane amounts of snow in DC land this run. Up here the gradient N&W monster is back.

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ECM closes off sooner and further south

*sigh*, it is another great run, absolute bomb.  There is going to be some variance run to run, let it finish out before sounding the alarm bells

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Many runs and model perturbations to go, insane amounts of snow in DC land this run. Up here the gradient N&W monster is back.

 

Plenty of time for a tick north :pimp:

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looks like 18-19 inches for PHL, there is more of a gradient than the previous run, but this is all still noise this far out.  The storm signal is unbelievably consistent.

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What a shame. How can we move on from this devastation

As in most models aren't showing much for where I am except for the EURO.

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I feel like I got robbed. After today's 12z GFS, RDG was on top of the world... I hope this is still going to get me more than 8".

Not really you still are 18" on this south run that is a great HECS number loooong way to go and the jackpot zone will keep moving

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Not really you still are 18" on this south run that is a great HECS number loooong way to go and the jackpot zone will keep moving

I don't care about the jackpot, I care about the gradient. Too close for comfort and it doesn't help the Poconos out much either. Indeed it will keep moving. 

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I don't care about the jackpot, I care about the gradient. Too close for comfort and it doesn't help the Poconos out much either. Indeed it will keep moving. 

 

Gradients have killed me in my location since about 2009. For once I'd like to not have to worry about it.

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Seems most models are now in the 10-20" range with some 2' lolli's sprinkled in over SE PA. This seems reasonable attm and much more realistic than the 3' totals some models were spitting out. I would take that range any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Of course this could fluctuate depending on how guidance handles the energy once it comes onshore later tonight and tomorrow morning, so Im still not ready to go all-in until 12Z Wednesday, but if someone held a shotgun to my head and asked for my best guess at totals, specifically central Bucks County area, 10-20" would be my answer right at this particular time.

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Gradients have killed me in my location since about 2009. For once I'd like to not have to worry about it.

 

Amen to this!  .... I would love to see today's 12Z models look like the Euro's 12Z run from Sunday.    Everyone would be happy.

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Seems most models are now in the 10-20" range with some 2' lolli's sprinkled in over SE PA. This seems reasonable attm and much more realistic than the 3' totals some models were spitting out. I would take that range any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Of course this could fluctuate depending on how guidance handles the energy once it comes onshore later tonight and tomorrow morning, so Im still not ready to go all-in until 12Z Wednesday, but if someone held a shotgun to my head and asked for my best guess at totals, specifically central Bucks County area, 10-20" would be my answer right at this particular time.

Yup a good 12-18 storm for just about everyone, slap in the winds and you have a 30" storm equivalent, in theory 30-40" is cool , but deadly and damaging isn't, nor do I want to have the national guard around.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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So the #1 analog on CIPS is now the Blizz of 96'.  So granted the lows root origin is much different than 96 once it enters the Miss valley going forward is where the comparison starts which was my basis from yesterday stating it wasn't similar.  However, I will agree that at 500 mb once it reaches the TN valley it does resemble it a good bit with lots of WAA out ahead of the low pressure center.  I am eating crow on that one gents as well as my thinking from a few days ago that this would be more wet than white for our area and I am thrilled to do so!  I am ready for a potentially historic storm!  

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LMAO @ 6z navgem! Typical biases at play.....suppressed system, really struggles to come North, closes off too soon and verbatim shows all precip as rain in SEPA even as the ccb skirts the area. LOL! The cheese stands alone.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

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Perfect example of a poor resolution model struggling with a potent 500mb system:

0cdb932611cd81f6b1b9c3b0911703d5.jpg

Closes the upper low off early and way south near Mississippi which torches everyone including areas well inland. Highly doubt this solution verifies with little to no support.

If this solution actually verified with zero snow, I would give up this hobby altogether :-)

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Perfect example of a poor resolution model struggling with a potent 500mb system:

0cdb932611cd81f6b1b9c3b0911703d5.jpg

Closes the upper low off early and way south near Mississippi which torches everyone including areas well inland. Highly doubt this solution verifies with little to no support.

If this solution actually verified with zero snow, I would give up this hobby altogether :-)

Yeah if you look at panel form hr 84 to 90 that's where it falls apart.  Don't think the surface low goes from the middle of Alabama to the southern coast of GA like that.  

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Yeah if you look at panel form hr 84 to 90 that's where it falls apart. Don't think the surface low goes from the middle of Alabama to the southern coast of GA like that.

It probably wont. But even with warming, this model is suffering from some sort of feedback errors. You dont have a bombing slp like that with a clearly defined ccb falling as plain rain in late January. I mean, I guess under perfect fail conditions it is possibility, but very highly unlikely.

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Highzenburg in the MA forum saying it sucks for Philly.....how does 18-24" suck?

Nothing like waking up and reading the 12z GFS play by play in NYC forum sounding like I was getting 6" 

 

It's an average 15" in SEPA probably 18" Philly

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