Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Ralph Wiggum

January 22-23 Storm Threat

Recommended Posts

I picked the wrong week to start wanting a snowstorm again...

 

I feel bad for you folks up there....still have a good shot...and wind. You guys used to smoke us in the lower parts of Philly. Meh...who knows?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6z gives PHL like 6" with lots of sleet.

 

No other model shows this so is the GFS on crack or on to something?

 

I'm thinking Meth...

 

The numbers down south are super nutty...this whole thing sounds like a game time decision.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel bad for you folks up there....still have a good shot...and wind. You guys used to smoke us in the lower parts of Philly. Meh...who knows?

We did...eons ago...lol

I'm not sure what's going on lately, but almost every KU event misses us to the south and east as we sit on the gradient from hell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm thinking Meth...

 

The numbers down south are super nutty...this whole thing sounds like a game time decision.

 

I would love to hear an expert on what the GFS is trying to do.  My guess is that it sees the SSTs and heavy easterly winds and is creating a large warm layer which somehow reaches 60 miles inland?  Why is that warm layer not also affecting BAL/WAS area, and why isn't ANY other model showing this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guys, the GFS verbatim qpf is noise. The general overall idea is there. The capture/partial capture idea is emerging, less of a 300 mile immediate slp handoff over convection. Slp ticked North. See my post in NYC....the answer lies between the GFS and NAM....the GFS is playing the slowwww catchup game right now and the NAM will slowly start backing off the extreme qpf starting 12z. We've seen this before. Trends from 0z too strong to ignore. See you all at 12z.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yea, but i'm still worried about the 'it's too cold to snow aspect" for northern areas. (GFS)

 

Usually (almost always) the models under-forecast strong CAD blocking events.    So if it's under forecasting again, this means nothing but flurries for northern and central NJ.  And heavy snow for SNJ.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What are you taking to stay awake?

Pure adrenaline, my own that my body is producing. I just got over the flu and was sleeping all day and night for several days so this helps...Im over-rested. Also, short 1-hour naps. Will probably get better rest during the day and tonight, advil pm may pay me a visit. Definitely will need rest before the weekend no doubt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The pros at the nws wear red tags for a reason. They have a much better idea of how to forecast and much more formal meteo education than many of us amateurs on this forum. There is clearly a reason blizzard watches were hoisted for NYC/LI. There is a reason Mt Holly has a general 12-18" in our area relatively widespread. They dont waver from run to run, model to model. They know the nuances, the trends, what to look for. They flat out know how to forecast better than any of us here. Are they infallible? Of course not, who is? But I side with the NWS when they make a forecast and stick with it. I think they are doing a fine job so far in preparation for this storm. I know we dont have any mets that frequent our subforum anymore but just wanted to throw out my support for any who may still lurk. Nice job! Keep up the solid work!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The pros at the nws wear red tags for a reason. They have a much better idea of how to forecast and much more formal meteo education than many of us amateurs on this forum. There is clearly a reason blizzard watches were hoisted for NYC/LI. There is a reason Mt Holly has a general 12-18" in our area relatively widespread. They dont waver from run to run, model to model. They know the nuances, the trends, what to look for. They flat out know how to forecast better than any of us here. Are they infallible? Of course not, who is? But I side with the NWS when they make a forecast and stick with it. I think they are doing a fine job so far in preparation for this storm. I know we dont have any mets that frequent our subforum anymore but just wanted to throw out my support for any who may still lurk. Nice job! Keep up the solid work!

HEADLINES AND IMPACTS...

WE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WATCH, HOWEVER LEAVING THE

OPTION OPEN THAT SOME PLACES COULD BE CHANGED TO A BLIZZARD WATCH

/PRIMARILY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR/. OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE

INLAND WINDS IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD

WATCH. WE DID ADD THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY INTO

A WINTER STORM WATCH AS FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE CLOSE TO WARNING

CRITERIA FOR THE EVENT /THIS IS WHERE THE SNOW GRADIENT COULD BE

TIGHTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST/. SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS MAY

EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY AND HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON THE

FRONT END SNOW AND THEN THE WRAPAROUND AT THE END. HIGH IMPACTS

ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WE DID ADD

IN SOME SLEET FARTHER INLAND GIVEN THE ROBUST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL

JET, HOWEVER DID NOT GO AS FAR AS THE GFS AS OTHER MODELS ARE

COLDER.  http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=on

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

agree Ralph. They are working OT nationally to get this right or as close to right as possible. Also note....having lived through many when I see our regions snowfall map and know it's Thursday not Friday.....I

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know if it's just me but it seems like people are starting to wishcast a bit. People are going with the NAM and disregarding the GFS and EURO. So much for the NAM being out of range. People seem to be disregarding the GFS because of low totals and the EURO because it's more south. I believe both of them have been showing pretty much the same thing for a little bit now. Yeah it's a bit early, but it's annoying me that people are putting so much stock in the NAM and then talking about throwing away the GFS and EURO. The word of the past few days has been tomorrow when talking about models. We should start thinking about short range models when pretty much all of them are in range. Also, we're getting information sent to the models. Sorry for this big angry message, but it pains me to see people talk about the NAM out of range and trusting the models more once the storm comes ashore and the GFS and EURO being the most reliable models and not trusting short range models until they're in range and then doing the opposite of all of that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know if it's just me but it seems like people are starting to wishcast a bit. People are going with the NAM and disregarding the GFS and EURO. So much for the NAM being out of range. People seem to be disregarding the GFS because of low totals and the EURO because it's more south. I believe both of them have been showing pretty much the same thing for a little bit now. Yeah it's a bit early, but it's annoying me that people are putting so much stock in the NAM and then talking about throwing away the GFS and EURO. The word of the past few days has been tomorrow when talking about models. We should start thinking about short range models when pretty much all of them are in range. Also, we're getting information sent to the models. Sorry for this big angry message, but it pains me to see people talk about the NAM out of range and trusting the models more once the storm comes ashore and the GFS and EURO being the most reliable models and not trusting short range models until they're in range and then doing the opposite of all of that.

I dont think I saw a single post on here that supports the NAM verbatim from any poster, myself included. I think being a hi-res model it may have some better ideas on handling of the convection over the gulf stream as well as meso scale features. Not ironically, the RGEM, another hi res model, is lock in step with the NAM thru 48 so take what you want away from that. Ive urged caution that the NAM, while possibly "on to something" is almost assuredly overdone with its obscene QPF totals. As I alluded to, I think the final answer in terms of slp track, capture, and general heavy qpf swath lie between the GFS and NAM at this point which will slowly trend towards one another over the next 48 hours. I would honestly be SHOCKED if the NAM didn't back off QPF totals considerably with it's 12z package.

 

All that being said, I am very comfortable with my 1-2' range for lower central Bucks County at the moment. Plenty of wiggle room to either side but feel 15-17" is a pretty respectable target right now.

 

Fwiw, the CRAS (I know, flame me) which is generally used to handle convective feature in the summer months is a capture or partial capture at the very least. It's other details are not as important imo. You need to use guidance to take hints and this says the convection over the Gulf Stream is just that, a cluster of convection and NOT another surface low. Again, take what you want from my comments. Just stating my $.02

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hopefully Philly and NYC get back in the heavy snow on all the models. Lets root for a north trend. The pac is really hurting our chances .

Um, Philly was never OUT of the heavy snow on really any model. You're better than this Ant, hang in dude.  :hug:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With that onshore flow, anyone else concerned with sleet?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think it's a concern in a lot of southern NJ, especially the coastal areas. I don't think the mixing makes it as far as PHL though

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's a concern in a lot of southern NJ, especially the coastal areas. I don't think the mixing makes it as far as PHL though

 

The 850mb freezing line makes it up to philly. It's going to mix a lot deeper then a lot of people expect. How long and how wet is the question. Could be accumulating sleet and freezing rain, could just be straight rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×