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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussion

Solak

By Solak,
in Southeastern States

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Looking at the Penn State (E-wall) SE radar loop, the latest frame looks like the circulation is closed/closing off and strengthening.  In fact, the last frame as of this post looked like it was a wobble to the West and due North, BUT that could just be the center repositioning/reshaping itself; idk... or maybe even a missing frame.

 

Here is the radar I spoke of - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25se.html

 

Edit: Looking at various other radar sources, they indicate the same idea.  I don't have lon/lat overlays so I can not be sure if it has actually moved or just getting it's act together.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Flash Flood Watches up:

rah.png

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1243 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE
TRACKS UP THE CAROLINA COAST...

.TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING... AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AREAS... ON SMALLER STREAMS... AND IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-020400-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FF.A.0003.160902T1800Z-160903T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-WILSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...DABNEY...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WISE...AFTON...WARRENTON...LAKE GASTON...
ROANOKE RAPIDS...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...BETHESDA...DURHAM...
RESEARCH TRIANGLE...PILOT...INGLESIDE...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...
NASHVILLE...AVENTON...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...
ROCKY MOUNT...HASTY...SILER CITY...BYNUM...MONCURE...PITTSBORO...
RALEIGH...CARY...NEW HOPE...WILSON
1243 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CHATHAM...DURHAM...EDGECOMBE...
  FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...HALIFAX...NASH...ORANGE...VANCE...
  WAKE...WARREN AND WILSON.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST...
  PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2
  TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED... WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THE
  RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Euro is a pounding...looks like 5-8" QPF across the triangle...20-25kt sustained and 50kt (60mph) gusts.

 

2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Yikes...Euro is 7-9" QPF across Wake Co with 60kt gusts (70mph).   Ummm...time to go battery shopping.

I know the Euro is usually the best overall model, but how good is it with specifics like this for tropical systems?

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
Just now, Brick Tamland said:

 

I know the Euro is usually the best overall model, but how good is it with specifics like this for tropical systems?

I was just about to post that...have no clue how accurate is with wind forecasts in something like this.  So take the Euro with a grain of salt...looks like a good bet for 3-5" of rain across the area with windy conditions.  Whether we see extreme wind gusts it shows is probably doubtful...we have seen the Euro spit out extreme solutions for our area and it never pans out. This will be one situation where I hope it's wrong.  

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted
Just now, Cold Rain said:

The Euro looks like it tracks maybe just east of I-95, just looking at the coarse maps on ewall.  I'm not worried about 70mph gusts here.  I'm not sure how that's realistic with a weakening TS that's been over land for a long time.

Yeah, but I have seen pines brought down here with a lot less wind.

 

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Reading over the past few days, I was hearing that these models over-estimate wind amounts inland with these things.  But, if Euro is right, we get quite the little wind event along with rainfall here in the Midlands.


Selfish plug, I am posting on Twitter - columbiascwx  more specifically about the Columbia area for those from around there.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The Euro looks like it tracks maybe just east of I-95, just looking at the coarse maps on ewall.  I'm not worried about 70mph gusts here.  I'm not sure how that's realistic with a weakening TS that's been over land for a long time.

What I was thinking but it's a strong closed ull with a piece of NS energy phasing on the backside.  No clue...probably way to strong but interesting.

 

 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

What I was thinking but it's a strong closed ull with a piece of NS energy phasing on the backside.  No clue...probably way to strong but interesting.

 

 

Well at least we still have something to watch, unlike winter storms, where we're gradually seeing them evaporate around this time frame.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

The rainfall maps are scary, it is shaping up to be a "PRE" event which means a lot of rain over a rather large area quickly....flash flooding of creeks/streams and urban areas are a very real threat if it comes to pass...its still pretty ragged but this system may be one that tighten ups after landfall since pressure falls are likely to still be occurring....so folks in Florida where it landfalls and then maybe inland for 50-100 miles have the best chance of gust to 60-80 mph. 

Wind here is a bit more harder to say, I seriously doubt wind gust in excess of 50 mph being common away from the coast.....850 winds are of little use with these once they get inland unless it still has well defined banding around the center since the winds can mix down.....I remember in Isabel being in the SW eyewall but it was open with no storms in it, we could actually see the HH airplane flying around above us at 5,000 ft and the data it was getting was showing FL winds of 100 knts right over us but our peak gust was only 50 or so....while 40 miles NE of me where the eyewall had storms gusted to 90 mph. This thing will be going extra tropical though perhaps and that mean gust to 40-45 are possible over a large area....but I have also seen them say this stuff and then the wind be garden variety 30 mph stuff too....some 50-70 mph gust a la Euro would be insane if it happens but it seems overdone...its hard to get 50-70 mph gust inland when a weak Cat 1 landfalls in NC sometimes...

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Going to depend how far south the front gets,faster the storm ticks east,slower and it will tick west.Couple miles will make a huge difference because of a sharp cut off.

Right now it's slowly approaching the NC mountains.

It's funny how in the winter, fronts will hang up at the mountains and keep the cold air from coming in before the precip is mostly finished, while in the summer, they mostly surge south faster than expected and chase tropical systems away to the east.

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Cloud tops around the center warming rapidly, this thing just cant sustain a flare up, probably a good thing for the folks in Florida...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rbtop-long.html

it is about to make landfall, a flareup in convection at this point doesnt make any difference. 

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27596WXNUT

27596WXNUT

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

The Euro looks like it tracks maybe just east of I-95, just looking at the coarse maps on ewall.  I'm not worried about 70mph gusts here.  I'm not sure how that's realistic with a weakening TS that's been over land for a long time.

Can't remember where I heard/read it but basically it wouldn't strengthen but also wouldn't weaken as fast as a normal tropical event due to drawing energy off the front. 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

it is about to make landfall, a flareup in convection at this point doesnt make any difference. 

Sure it does....it speaks to the overall health of the system, the FL winds only mix down to the surface when there is strong storms around the center to mix these to the ground...anytime a system like this has warming cloud tops around the center it usually means weakening or at the very least little in the way of strengthening....this loop shows clearly the center suddenly warming its not a sign of a healthy well organized system and it tells me it may have peaked....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-ft-long.html

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