NWNC2015 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 2 minutes ago, jshetley said: The GFS says out to sea now and will probably be right. The US continues to avoid a major hurricane it seems this year and probably for a lot longer than that. That angle....southern Bahamas....its certainly not a high confidence out to sea. Even the out to sea gfs seems to sling shot back into Maine at the last minute. I don't think we are out of the woods yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 47 minutes ago, jshetley said: The GFS says out to sea now and will probably be right. The US continues to avoid a major hurricane it seems this year and probably for a lot longer than that. Now is the operative word. GFS has been all over the place sporadically. But the main trend has been FL. Let's see if a storm even develops; then grading the GFS 10 days out will be fun (so long as not another 'Cane IMBY!!!!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 32 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Now is the operative word. GFS has been all over the place sporadically. But the main trend has been FL. Let's see if a storm even develops; then grading the GFS 10 days out will be fun (so long as not another 'Cane IMBY!!!!). Hopefully nothing strong, but we could use a tropical system hitting the FLA panhandle and moving up the mountains to help this drought we are in. A tropical storm could do the trick and would not hurt coastal areas much. Something about like Beryl in 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 2 hours ago, jshetley said: Hopefully nothing strong, but we could use a tropical system hitting the FLA panhandle and moving up the mountains to help this drought we are in. A tropical storm could do the trick and would not hurt coastal areas much. Something about like Beryl in 1994. Ya'all need your rain and I'm with you. Just hoping for no more 4 days without power here this year - unless it is snow induced! Having said as much - I'm concerned about a SE winter of any proportion - can't seem to find any composites that show anything but above average with the tropical set up we've had this year - though I'm very humble and would sorely love to be shown/proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 who is ready to talk Nicole? Some on this board said she would be dead, never form, in a effort to justify Matthew's track, despite early ventilation from Matthew and other certain conditions allowing for intensification to hurricane status. Anyone think she will be a major? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 ok so I just looked at the GFDL for Nicole...has the Dominican Republic ever been hit by a tropical cyclone coming from the north? the NHC has it going into the general direction of the east coast. Not really sure about this one just yet....climo says out to sea baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Nicole is now a Category 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Nicole is making a comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 The next name on this list is "Otto". Long range models suggest west Caribbean development...latest GFS shows a climo track for Cuba, Florida, near the OBX with a potential hurricane this month. Not sure where the rain would run off to if this occurred and trended toward Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 not good euro latching on to the gfs now with developing low in the western Caribbean at hour 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Interesting the possible threat lines up perfectly with our next "peak of the season". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 18z GFS hurricane in Caribbean but more west....not sure if I buy that....climo says n/e? #Otto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Otto 12z gfs hour 228 its under 1000mb, Major hurricane western Caribbean, Stall/weakening before entering Gulf of Mexico, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 6z gfs more realistic, major into Florida this year, not further west into the Gulf of Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Canadian also support dangerous hurricane in Caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 5h5 hours agoPennsylvania, USA Was tweeting about Matthew and Hermine way in advance not cause models say BUT THE PATTERN IS RIPE! End game should be w carib storm Joe BastardiVerified account@BigJoeBastardi Ridge over troubled waters will try for the 4th time to lead to tropical development underneath, Major warmth day 4-10, GFS seeing Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 4h4 hours ago Definitely need to watch the western Caribbean in 6-10 days. All global models showing at least modest development here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 5h5 hours agoPennsylvania, USA Was tweeting about Matthew and Hermine way in advance not cause models say BUT THE PATTERN IS RIPE! End game should be w carib storm Joe BastardiVerified account@BigJoeBastardi Ridge over troubled waters will try for the 4th time to lead to tropical development underneath, Major warmth day 4-10, GFS seeing Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 4h4 hours ago Definitely need to watch the western Caribbean in 6-10 days. All global models showing at least modest development here. We will take it in North West GA. Extreme drought continues. Storms down there come up this way from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: We will take it in North West GA. Extreme drought continues. Storms down there come up this way from time to time. October climo says Florida and maybe eastern NC before going out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: October climo says Florida and maybe eastern NC before going out to sea Hurricane opal says hi and screw what you think climo is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 time table for those curious at least another 7 days before we see a possible invest label/thread start 10days+ for US impact (likely if in western Caribbean unless goes sharply east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Hurricane opal says hi and screw what you think climo is. if we can get it to form that far west, Opal was a extreme, nearly so far west it formed very close to land, managed to stay weak over land, before doing the climo north-east track the rest of its life, into the US "Otto" looks to be much further south-east and possibly avoiding land, which argues much more climo florida track. of course huge grain of salt just model gossip this far out just calling it out it looks today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: if we can get it to form that far west, Opal was a extreme, nearly so far west it formed very close to land, managed to stay weak over land, before doing the climo north-east track the rest of its life, into the US "Otto" looks to be much further south-east and possibly avoiding land, which argues much more climo florida track. of course huge grain of salt just model gossip this far out just calling it out it looks today You'd think the trough frequency is too great to allow too much of a westward track, once it forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 and hats off to the main models for nailing Matthew so far in advance, even JMA had the track spot on 7 days out. we saw development very far out with gfs. this looks like a serious threat since it involves Caribbean again not much room to escape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You'd think the trough frequency is too great to allow too much of a westward track, once it forms. yea esp. the closer we get to November Cuba is more of a concern than Florida I think 5 storms I am looking at with similar location and time periods Paloma 2008 Michelle 2001 Mitch 1998 Hattie 1961 Fox 1952 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: yea esp. the closer we get to November Cuba is more of a concern than Florida I think 5 storms I am looking at with similar location and time periods Paloma 2008 Michelle 2001 Mitch 1998 Hattie 1961 Fox 1952 No Wilma? She fits right in with those analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Also, Nicole's looking pretty good right now. Back up to cat 1 strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 18z gfs...keeps stalling major hurricane Otto in the north-west Caribbean...I am pretty certain for development...but no idea on track this far out too complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Kate redux? I hope the hell not ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 0z Canadian a bad hit for Haiti same spot that Matthew went over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 wow 130mph headed for landfall. nhc says that is pretty rare for Bermuda in terms of strength. going to see some waves from that in North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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