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Isopycnic

January 2016 BANTER

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Winter Storm Watches being hoisted in California...up to three feet. They will be slammed ALL month long if the GFS is right. I could see many more feet perhaps over 10 feet.

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Hey, does anyone have access to the 336 hr GFS? 

 

I can give you the individual members of the 336 GFS!  That is where the bacon lies.  Let me run to the local coffee shop and we can stay up all night talking about how member 10 is right and the rest aren't.

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I can give you the individual members of the 336 GFS!  That is where the bacon lies.  Let me run to the local coffee shop and we can stay up all night talking about how member 10 is right and the rest aren't.

 

No, that's alright. I only get excited when I see things showing up on the op runs. 

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No, that's alright. I only get excited when I see things showing up on the op runs. 

 

Well fiddlesticks.  Guess I'm stuck with Brick.

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Special News Bulletin: It doesn't really matter how many models you look at or what a met says. Analyzing map or debating the weather doesn't effect the actual outcome.

Back to your regularly scheduled disco.

 

I agree. If a 300+ hour model run gets a good discussion going, let it ride. I think/hope everyone who posts here knows better not to take models (especially the GFS) seriously past 5-7 days. But if it shows something interesting, why not talk about it?

 

Are we now limited to only discussing the mesoscale models inside of 84 hours in the disco thread?

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Too funny - someone's into the cold air :lol:

 

attachicon.gif1.gif

 

Yeah, Phil!

 

Haha, the temperature sensor at our tiny airport (it's in a district called Horsepasture for God's sake) has been out for weeks! :(

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It's always only 14 days away :D

 

Hey it's gotta pan out one of these times...it's just gotta! Teleconnections and ensembles continue to say so. :) 

 

Well fiddlesticks.  Guess I'm stuck with Brick.

 

There may worse things. Nm...at least you got your health! 

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Yeah, Phil!

 

Haha, the temperature sensor at our tiny airport (it's in a district called Horsepasture for God's sake) has been out for weeks! :(

 

It amused me in the midst of the banter!

 

BTW - great posts all the way around today, Folks!

 

Really picking up on and learning some stuff on this end. Thanks!

 

Phil

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I love the discussion. I try not to have my mood dictated with what a model shows. I do ok until the models show a big dog inside of 5 days. Then I'm all in.

Right now I'm looking for daily trends in the ensembles and potential storms to show on repeated runs. Fun stuff looking at a pattern that can produce a big storm.

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There may worse things. Nm...at least you got your health! 

 

Much more modeled storm chasing and that won't be true anymore.  I still haven't been to sleep yet (2 days!), waiting for the 12z Euro.  Last night's 00z hyped me up.

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12z GFS snow totals at day 15/16:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=12&fhour=372&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

Just for discussion purposes this setup would have a stronger CAD and we would be talking about major ice south of these snow totals.Actual surface and dew points are not modeled (by GFS) cold enough but would most likely be colder, 

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Not one mention of the Euro in the discussion thread.  Wait, is this the new discussion thread and that's the new banter thread?

 

So lost.

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Mods/others: Opinions on starting a thread similar to the one in the NYC Metro area to post Venders/TV mets/Private Wx Companies forecasts? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39531-vendor-blog-and-tv-channel-forecasts-thread/

 

This would be a good area to post "JB said x y z in his new video today" or "Robert is saying..." or for Brick "here are screenshots of Allan's tweets"

 

It will clear things up in the pattern thread. Since this year will be very active for our area, I think it's a good idea. Thoughts?

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Mods/others: Opinions on starting a thread similar to the one in the NYC Metro area to post Venders/TV mets/Private Wx Companies forecasts? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39531-vendor-blog-and-tv-channel-forecasts-thread/

This would be a good area to post "JB said x y z in his new video today" or "Robert is saying..." or for Brick "here are screenshots of Allan's tweets"

It will clear things up in the pattern thread. Since this year will be very active for our area, I think it's a good idea. Thoughts?

Hahahaha!

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