Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i made two bets so far this year have won both. One against forky that we'd get some snow flurries got them... Than another one against longislandsurffreak for snow showers by the 22nd won that too a few days ago. I'm willing to bet that we get a big blizzard coming up! Next weekendI want some of this action. First define "we" when you say "we get a big blizzard coming up next weekend". And what is your wager? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 RGEM has some light snow into NYC tomorrowhttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i made two bets so far this year have won both. One against forky that we'd get some snow flurries got them... Than another one against longislandsurffreak for snow showers by the 22nd won that too a few days ago. I'm willing to bet that we get a big blizzard coming up! Next weekend We get a big blizzard once every five years if we're lucky and next week aint it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 RGEM has some light snow into NYC tomorrow http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Might take a trip to Atlantic City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Might take a trip to Atlantic City I might go there on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 We get a big blizzard once every five years if we're lucky and next week aint it not even that often.....didn't see a big one from 83-93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 was a dealer in AC back in the 90's saw some crazy storms, there for the 96 blizzard, good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 T minus 6 and counting..... 1016 mb hp ain't gon cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 With today's high temperature of 52°, the 3rd 50° or higher reading this month, it continues to appear increasingly likely that January will wind up warmer than normal for the month as a whole in New York City. If the GFS MOS verifies through January 22, NYC would need to average 3.9° below normal for the remainder of the month just to have a normal monthly average temperature. Even if actual temperatures wind up 3° below the MOS estimates for the entire 1/17-22 period, NYC would need to average nearly 2° below normal for the month to finish at normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT posted something earlier regarding the low getting tucked into SBY and lots of rain from PHL to NYC. Not sure if this is how he is feeling this will play out or just regurgitation model output but found that sort of interesting for him to post at this juncture. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk If the storm winds up on the Delmarva, that sounds reasonable. My worry is that it is more likely that the flow is too fast and the trough is too broad. As a result, the storm would wind up passing sufficiently far to our south and east so as to brush the area with its heaviest precipitation remaining offshore or it would miss. Given the timing involved, none of this is high confidence right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If the storm winds up on the Delmarva, that sounds reasonable. My worry is that it is more likely that the flow is too fast and the trough is too broad. As a result, the storm would wind up passing sufficiently far to our south and east so as to brush the area with its heaviest precipitation remaining offshore or it would miss. Given the timing involved, none of this is high confidence right now.We think pretty much the same at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 0z gfs op is stronger with the low pressure South of Alaska this run thru 111 hrs thus pumping the ridge out West. The 'wild card' in all of this for next week. Need to maintain some semblance of a ridge even if minimal. The ots solutions completely obliterate and flatten this feature. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You can tell thru 117 that this run likely will side with other recent gfs op runs and probably not head ots based on 500mb. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Big hit at 147 on the GFS. BIg snowstorm on the GFS. Huge hit at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 My prediction for the potential storm next weekend and the week leading into. The forums will become an absolute sh*t show this week. There will be weenies bigger then some of the biggest weenies already on here. There will be the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat when its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Epic hit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 this run is a full out mauling. please please please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Big hit at 147 on the GFS. BIg snowstorm on the GFS. Huge hit at 150 Yep, but I would still temper expectations for now, even tho yeah, beautiful run. Damn bullseye at day 5-6 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 yeah, way too long to go. sure is nice to look at, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You weenies crashed the damn ncep site lol. Go to sleep :-) Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You weenies crashed the damn ncep site lol. Go to sleep :-) Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk I noticed that site is slow a lot, not just now. But I am sure people are looking at it now. Hope the Euro improves tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This a a few runs in a row the GFS OP has shown a MECS at least - BUT this will be ignored as long as the GEFS doesn't phase it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Over Under 18" Sharp Cut-Off is your teaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This a a few runs in a row the GFS OP has shown a MECS at least - BUT this will be ignored as long as the GEFS doesn't phase it 0z GEFS didnt come out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Anybody have any maps for the February 11 -12 , 1983 storm which is the analog according to DT. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GGEM is late to transfer . Shows snow to rain to heavy snow for the coast and a lot of snow inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Anybody have any maps for the February 11 -12 , 1983 storm which is the analog according to DT. ?DT also said this is rain phl-nyc based on slp position soooo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GGEM is late to transfer . Shows snow to rain to heavy snow for the coast and a lot of snow inland. how far north does the precip get and where is the low transferring to along the coast ? Got any maps ? because Tidbits is only out to 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 how far north does the precip get and where is the low transferring to along the coast ? Got any maps ? because Tidbits is only out to 108 Im on stormvista right now. Transferred east of Ocean City. Primary went too far north. GGEM bombs this out a long the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 how far north does the precip get and where is the low transferring to along the coast ? Got any maps ? because Tidbits is only out to 108 Go to thermodynamics on tidbits and it's out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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