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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

WPC now has a classic miller A track forecast. Low from Southern Louisiana up to the outer banks Day 6 to 7.

 

John, what is the update time for that map?  I went and looked...not sure when it was updated.  But...the 12z Euro is an inland runner w/ IMO an underdeveloped nw precip shield after the overrunning event.  Can you name a storm that had a good overrunning event followed by a Miller A?  Certainly has that look.

 

edit:  May set the alarm clock tonight.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

John, what is the update time for that map?  I went and looked...not sure when it was updated.  But...the 12z Euro is an inland runner w/ IMO an underdeveloped nw precip shield after the overrunning event.  Can you name a storm that had a good overrunning event followed by a Miller A?  Certainly has that look.

 

edit:  May set the alarm clock tonight.

Around 10 am this morning. They usually update at 10 am and 10 pm roughly.

 

And I may be mis-remembering, but I thought we had an overrunning event followed by a miller A last year. 

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1234snow

1234snow

Posted
Posted

I was concerned last night about losing the system but our foreign models friends have made me feel better. The Canadian was very good last night as well so it has been consistent for a few runs. The GFS isn't a terrible look either. It is very rare to have all of the models showing the same solution this far out so having the GFS less amped is okay for me right now. This would be a big score for the Euro if it pans out since it has shown this for 4-5 days. I'm willing to bet the ensembles have some big hits. It's very impressive and rare to have practically the whole state modeled above 6".

Another point I will add is that looking at the 500mb levels and the orientation of the trough is making it hard for me to believe the big QPF totals from the Canadian and Euro. But that is my very unprofessional look at things. The biggest question for me is if the gulf low can take form and swing up the coast. If that happens then we will be in good shape.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

I was concerned last night about losing the system but our foreign models friends have made me feel better. The Canadian was very good last night as well so it has been consistent for a few runs. The GFS isn't a terrible look either. It is very rare to have all of the models showing the same solution this far out so having the GFS less amped is okay for me right now. This would be a big score for the Euro if it pans out since it has shown this for 4-5 days. I'm willing to bet the ensembles have some big hits. It's very impressive and rare to have practically the whole state modeled above 6".

Another point I will add is that looking at the 500mb levels and the orientation of the trough is making it hard for me to believe the big QPF totals from the Canadian and Euro. But that is my very unprofessional look at things. The biggest question for me is if the gulf low can take form and swing up the coast. If that happens then we will be in good shape.

 

 

Weak overrunning lows can really bring high qpf and the good thing is they usually bring a much less aggressive warm nose. January 1988 is a great example, that was 6-10 inches of snow across the whole valley. Arctic air in place, weak wave that wasn't closed off. 

 

From the write up here of the 1988 event. 

 

 

 

As the s/w moves east into the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast US, notice the confluent flow flattens the s/w and weakens it, as it is never able to close off over the southeast.  This system is a classic example of how most of the southern US snowstorms come about from a rather weak or disorganized s/w that is suppressed, but serves the purpose of producing an overrunning setup, with southwest winds aloft, and if there is enough cold air around, as there was in this situation, widespread wintry weather can result. 
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

The 12 Euro and to some extent the 12 GEFS continue to advertise significant warmth after the potential storm next week.  Might be delayed a couple of days from original thinking, but it is still there.  Looks like 5-7 days of warmth and then back in the icebox to end February.  Honestly, after this week and potential winter wx early next week, we might not mind the warm-up. 

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

MRX afternoon disco.

 

 

 

OVERALL...THE COLD WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH THE SYSTEM BREWING EARLY NEXT WEEK BEING THE MAIN HEADLINE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TO DIFFER WITH THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ARE BEGINNING TO COME CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS.
ARCTIC AR WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS MENTIONED EARLIER.
ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE TROUGHS WILL PARTIALLY PHASE TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA WITH PRECIP SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP PRECIP. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A STRONG
WEDGE IS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW BUT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT COMPARED TO THE OTHER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF...GEM AND SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH A LOW TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF. IF THIS WERE THE CASE...THERE WOULD BE MUCH MORE
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM. THESE MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OF THE MANY DETAILS
IS THAT WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE COMPLICATIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE SYSTEM STILL 6
DAYS OUT...WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH JUST RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
ALSO...KEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH EVERY
MODEL RUN INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS BETWEEN NOW AND
MONDAY BUT THINGS HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-40 DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW...WILL ADD THE
MENTION OF SNOW INTO THE HWO AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

Stove, what does it show around Knox? I'm hoping we all win with the storm!

 

About 8-10 but try not to get caught up in amounts yet.  In my opinion these types of overrunning setups are better for our specific area than Miller As, usually.  I'm very pumped about this threat for us.

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

Thanks Stove! Yea I've learned over the years not to get too hyped over weenie runs. However, I am excited about the potential tracking opportunity! Thanks again for your and others input. I've learned a lot from you guys!

 

Thanks, I mostly just copy and paste stuff.  We have some great people on this subforum that do a wonderful job analyzing everything.  It really is a good environment for learning.  Every year I pick up new knowledge from these folks.  Now let's reel this thing in!

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
323 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...

IT`S A CLOUDY, COLD AND SNOWY WINTER`S DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE.
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA, AND
WERE HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WE`VE BEEN DEALING WITH SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT AVERAGE SNOW TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE MID STATE, WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
LESS OVER MOST SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SNOWBURST NATURE OF THESE
SHOWERS, HOWEVER, HAS CERTAINLY LED TO SOME HIGHER BULLS-EYE
AMOUNTS AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SO FAR
HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WHERE AMOUNTS
AROUND 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN COMMON.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD TONIGHT AND MOVES OUT
OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS, WE COULD STILL PICK UP ANOTHER HALF TO ONE
INCH OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY NOON TOMORROW, AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF
RELATIVELY DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO SET UP ACROSS MIDDLE TN
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY, AND BLV MOS POPS ARE RUNNING TOO LOW
FOR THIS POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT(ESPECIALLY IF
THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ENDS UP AS DEEP AS MODELS INDICATE).
BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL STAND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF A DUSTING OF A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE COLD
NATURE OF THIS PARTICULAR AIR MASS. SO HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.

COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
SOME MODERATION DOES TAKE PLACE AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH PULLS A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH,
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPS DOWN ON US OVER THE WEEKEND,
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT, AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY GO BACK
INTO THE 30S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LIGHT
SNOWFALL, PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. EXPECT
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO LINGER OVER EASTERN AREAS INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PULLS RAPIDLY EASTWARD
BY MONDAY NIGHT, AND KEEPS THE COLDEST AIR SHUNTED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LINGERING WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD END BY TUESDAY.

FOR THOSE WHO DON`T LIKE ALL THIS COLD WEATHER, THERE IS REASON
FOR HOPE. MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. MIGHT EVEN SEEN HIGHS GO BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY THEN!
WOOO HOOO!

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Beginning Feb 18th-ish, the GFS shows almost a perfect correlation to phase 4 of the MJO. Will last about 5-7 days. Thankfully, the Australian MJO forecast is projected to move to a moderate amplitude phase 8 on Feb 22nd and might spend 20 days there per JB. That should impact our wx in late Feb, or likely early March. (somewhere Jeff had to crack a smile). This sets the stage for March to be generally cold. The only thing saving us from 7-12 days of significantly warm wx(referring to next week) is the storm early next week.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Been a lot of discussion about the MJO correlation and actual wx in NA..Here is the 12z GFS forecast for 2.20.16 and here is the MJO correlation chart.  Not bad.  Again, thankfully it passed through at a weak amplitude.  That is big if you want a return to winter which it appears that we will late month and into March.

 

post-769-0-43813700-1455125801_thumb.jpg

 

post-769-0-74390000-1455125817_thumb.jpg

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