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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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The DVN day shift is playing the "ground is too warm for much snow to accumulate" card.

 

 

They did acknowledge the possibility though

 

IF...IF IT CAN SNOW HARD ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE  POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT THE GROUND MAY TAKE ON A WHITE HUE BY  SUNRISE SATURDAY. IF ACCUMULATION OCCURS...IT SHOULD BE IN NARROW  BANDS WHERE FORCING/COOLING ALOFT IS MAXIMIZED.  
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i'm familiar with the outliers but hedging against accumulating snow beyond a dusting/nuisance inch is the smart/easy call

We are getting into late November though, so something more significant wouldn't be that bizarre.

 

The city may be an interesting call if it roughly stays on this track, as in how much would the lake eat into the totals.  A weaker system would have weaker wind fields to help prevent the marine influence from being a problem too far inland.

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We are getting into late November though, so something more significant wouldn't be that bizarre.

 

The city may be an interesting call if it roughly stays on this track, as in how much would the lake eat into the totals.  A weaker system would have weaker wind fields to help prevent the marine influence from being a problem too far inland.

 

not bizarre but rare enough to bet against a widespread 4"+ event at 100+ hrs

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After looking at this setup for a bit, my thought is that where we are seeing it progged now is pretty close to where it will end up.  It's hard for me to imagine a big north trend given the departing system around midweek...there's not much time for heights to recover and a lot of amplification to send this too far north.  Climo would say to keep a more northern solution on the table but it's hard for me to see it in this particular setup.  So southern/central Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, southern Michigan etc is where I'd want to be.

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After looking at this setup for a bit, my thought is that where we are seeing it progged now is pretty close to where it will end up. It's hard for me to imagine a big north trend given the departing system around midweek...there's not much time for heights to recover and a lot of amplification to send this too far north. Climo would say to keep a more northern solution on the table but it's hard for me to see it in this particular setup. So southern/central Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, southern Michigan etc is where I'd want to be.

Sounds good to me!
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0z GFS still has the snow storm. I've seen low 60s within days of a heavy snowfall in late November/near December 1st before. If it snows hard enough, it will stick.

 

 

It would definitely stick, and pretty well if something like the 00z GFS plays out, as rates would be pretty good. 

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