dendrite Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I'd rather have 2 really good runs per day than 4 meh ones. Get 00z/12z right first and then we can talk 6z/18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Early next week will definitely have a winter chill, with maybe a few mood flakes around especially in the hills of southern New England. I think we will probably finish November relatively unscathed,, However I'm really starting to feel like December could come in like a lion with the recurving typhoon and the EPO dropping so negative we should have a corresponding PNA spike with a deeper trough into the eastern United States. Folks, the +PNA/-EPO lag-tandem is quite obvious and gaining continuity at CDC. IN-FA may or may not recurve, but what I find interesting is determining which came first. It seems almost coincident/fortuitous to amplification and blocking scenarios that IN-FA appears, because there are no obvious physical processes beyond fantastic supposition that might explain how the two are causally linked. IN-FA is down around 10 N latitude over the west Pact, the other is the NE Pacific domain space, which is... what, a third of the way around the world apart... I don't know about chicken and eggs and/or perhaps concurrently favorable hemispheric giga motions or whatever, but, should the PNA/EPO deal evolve THEN pumps in a mega tropical forcing ... heh. wow. Of course, IN-FA may not recurve either.. Thing is, I was just also reading this: A band of water in the central Pacific registered at 85.5°F (29.7°C) over the course of one week — over 5 degrees warmer than usual and higher than ever previously recorded, It almost seems like the ENSO is strengthening yet more... because if the easterlies are still relatively broken down, this additional mass of exceptionally warm water might just integrate it's way eastward into the 3.4 --> 1.2 and so forth. These two facets seem to be opposing in terms of how they should correlate to the base-line/resting state patterns. Might be more of a topic for the winter outlook thread, but I could almost imagine the rest of the way into mid December kind of flipping back to the older -EPO base-line from the last two years, THEN...dun dun dunnn, some kind of raging directly and observably obvious El NINO armeggeddon thunders to life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Folks, the +PNA/-EPO lag-tandem is quite obvious and gaining continuity at CDC. IN-FA may or may not recurve, but what I find interesting is determining which came first. It seems almost coincident/fortuitous to amplification and blocking scenarios that IN-FA appears, because there are no obvious physical processes beyond fantastic supposition that might explain how the two are causally linked. IN-FA is down around 10 N latitude over the west Pact, the other is the NE Pacific domain space, which is... what, a third of the way around the world apart... I don't know about chicken and eggs and/or perhaps concurrently favorable hemispheric giga motions or whatever, but, should the PNA/EPO deal evolve THEN pumps in a mega tropical forcing ... heh. wow. Of course, IN-FA may not recurve either.. Thing is, I was just also reading this: A band of water in the central Pacific registered at 85.5°F (29.7°C) over the course of one week — over 5 degrees warmer than usual and higher than ever previously recorded, It almost seems like the ENSO is strengthening yet more... because if the easterlies are still relatively broken down, this additional mass of exceptionally warm water might just integrate it's way eastward into the 3.4 --> 1.2 and so forth. These two facets seem to be opposing in terms of how they should correlate to the base-line/resting state patterns. Might be more of a topic for the winter outlook thread, but I could almost imagine the rest of the way into mid December kind of flipping back to the older -EPO base-line from the last two years, THEN...dun dun dunnn, some kind of raging directly and observably obvious El NINO armeggeddon thunders to life. somebody hasn't read the ad nauseum SST discussion in the winter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 somebody hasn't read the ad nauseum SST discussion in the winter thread sorry...don't have that kind of time at 150 pages... jesus. and, not sure what that has to do with the point i was making anyway - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Sucks that everything lost the snow signal this weekend. Would have been nice to steal an inch or 2 Never had it. Starting early this year. Going to be a long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I was just noticing the operational Euro and GGEM also node off an EPO block too; they just consequently handle the flow structure differently beyond that D7-10 feature. The GFS ops to maintain more of a full latitude structure up-down the U.S./Canadian Rockies cordillera ...maintaining also a bit more of a -EPO in the deep range, but also in all having more coherent +PNAP and associated cyclonic flow over southen-eastern Canada. This solution would pour early season winter into the NP as a slam dunk, but would likely mean episodic spreading of that air mass well south below the 40th parallel. The other two, they tend to "tuck" mid level energy back toward the upper WC area ..pealing west underneath a -EPO that doesn't have as much residence; possibly as a consequence of their using said energy to erode the block as fast as they create it. Not sure which to trust outrightly... The latter thinking would bring cold air down to mid latitudes and into the U.S., just not as prodigiously as the GFS. Which by the way, this has been a consistent tenor with the operational GFS for multiple cycles now. and fact of the matter is, it's own ensembles must agree to some extent given to how the PNA is demonstratively rising ... soon followed by a strong -EPO presentation in the prognostics. That really is the same sort of configuration that demarcated much of the last two winters. We discussed at length earlier in the season whether or not we had truly lost that tendency... hard to say if this answers that question. Bottom line, odds seem pretty well sloped toward negative being the temperature anomaly distribution type for a large chunk of the eastern 2/3rds of the conus as we tick through the next 10 days and close out the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 PV stretching Se towards Hudson bay first week of Dec , always a good sign of cold transport, that would be a good time for the Nino STJ to pay a visit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 PV stretching Se towards Hudson bay first week of Dec , always a good sign of cold transport, that would be a good time for the Nino STJ to pay a visit Models seem to want to bang that period in the long range, I always like the first week of Dec for an event up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Whatn a torch on the GFS op for T-Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Soaker here thur-fri on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Epic cold shot for West Coast and Rockies. La Nino in full effect for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Whatn a torch on the GFS op for T-Day weekend. Huge trough and massive arctic outbreak into the Northern Rockies and Plains diving straight down to Texas on that run. Could be a wild time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wait till Ginx sees that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wait till Ginx sees that Might not compute with cold bias virus installed in his hard drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Might not compute with cold bias virus installed in his hard drive.Euros had the TGiving torch of 60's/ 70's for days. I was afraid of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Might not compute with cold bias virus installed in his hard drive. perhaps you should read my 8 week forecast and learn somethings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 somebody didn't look at 2m temps for turkey day, upper 40's late in the day on the temple mount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 perhaps you should read my 8 week forecast and learn somethings It was a comment about the intense troughing out west. That is super impressive thanks to -EPO cold dump out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 somebody didn't look at 2m temps for turkey day, upper 40's late in the day on the temple mount T-Day weekend. Not T-Day itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Euros had the TGiving torch of 60's/ 70's for days. I was afraid of this Euro is dead nuts normal for you on Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Euro is dead nuts normal for you on Thanksgiving.The whole weekend is roasted . Can't use 2m temps. When you see deep trough dump in west.. We torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Euro is dead nuts normal for you on Thanksgiving. hes panic stricken over a 9 day forecast that will change , and who cares. A warm turkey day is great for the family time, get the kids outside . Who wants everyone huddled inside. if there was snow on the ground different story, but things are progressing according to plan. Silly to talk about really. I mean the 11-15 is silly cold but cmon, GFS really? Scooter trolling Kevin is always something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 The whole weekend is roasted . Can't use 2m temps. When you see deep trough dump in west.. We torch Meh 50's the new torch, who cares. My .7 snow climo is in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 It was a comment about the intense troughing out west. That is super impressive thanks to -EPO cold dump out west. no it was a direct shot on me, saying cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Meh 50's the new torch, who cares. My .7 snow climo is in jeopardy.I'm not looking forward to cutting down the Xmas tree Black Friday in shorts with temps 65-70 and swarms of insects flying around.. Nothing says holidays like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I'm not looking forward to cutting down the Xmas tree Black Friday in shorts with temps 65-70 and swarms of insects flying around I hope you watch for ticks and way early on the Christmas tree, enjoy the pile of dry needles everywhere. Your OC self must go nuts when you bring it out of the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I hope you watch for ticks and way early on the Christmas tree, enjoy the pile of dry needles everywhere. Your OC self must go nuts when you bring it out of the house.Its a family tradition. We like a nice long holiday season. Enjoy getting your pre cut tree from the Killingly Walmart. And yes.. It's a nightmare taking it down. But worth it for the kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Months later you can still find needles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Its a family tradition. We like a nice long holiday season. Enjoy getting your pre cut tree from the Killingly Walmart. And yes.. It's a nightmare taking it down. But worth it for the kids interestingly enough we cut the week before or have live trees we donate after but nice try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Months later you can still find needles Guaranteed the back of his truck is immediately scrubbed and any needles lingering are microscopically detected and removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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