CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Hmm. Well if the model is so warm, what is generating the departures? If it's the start of the month...I would be a little skeptical. Then again, it all goes back to this being the CFS and really a non factor in influencing my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Kind of a chilly GEFS run. Very Nina/Scooter high look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 GEFS much higher compared to 00z with heights in AK. More 00z-12z ying and yang. I wonder if emerging eastward shift of the tropical convection signal is playing games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Kind of a chilly GEFS run. Very Nina/Scooter high look. We mentioned the Scooter high a couple of days ago, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Hmm. Well if the model is so warm, what is generating the departures? If it's the start of the month...I would be a little skeptical. Then again, it all goes back to this being the CFS and really a non factor in influencing my opinion. if you don't like the weather the CFS is giving you, wait a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Hounds unleashed on the Euro post day 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Snow? Cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Get the cold..the snow will come ..Somehow, some way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Get the cold..the snow will come ..Somehow, some way yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 About the time we see 1st snowfall up here most seasons Another question of do people know their climo. PWM and CON average first accumulation is 11/19, BOS 11/28, PVD 12/1. They've all had to wait until the second week of January for their latest first snowfall. So anything before turkey day truly is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 EPO dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 0F in Maple Hollow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 0F in Maple Hollow? image.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 seen this produce before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 EC ensembles start reconsolidating the vortex out near the end of the run which would suggest that this is a transient pattern flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 EC ensembles start reconsolidating the vortex out near the end of the run which would suggest that this is a transient pattern flip. 12-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 12-15? I assume you mean D12-15? Yeah it was at the end in that range. We'll certainly have to watch it. It's possible it doesn't reconsolidate that quickly...D12-15 is always a little volatile on guidance. Even if it does reconsolidate, it would be nice to keep some ridiging into AK, and we'd still be able to get some cold that way. Hell, we went last winter with a pretty stout vortex up in the arctic, but we had ridging where it mattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I assume you mean D12-15? Yeah it was at the end in that range. We'll certainly have to watch it. It's possible it doesn't reconsolidate that quickly...D12-15 is always a little volatile on guidance. Even if it does reconsolidate, it would be nice to keep some ridiging into AK, and we'd still be able to get some cold that way. Hell, we went last winter with a pretty stout vortex up in the arctic, but we had ridging where it mattered. Yea you assumed right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Seen a lot of posts about the PV being unusually strong for Nov. Waiting on data from the Berlin site but anecdotally I don't think its really that unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Scooter's friend Sipprell uses this word in every one of his AFD's. ALL IN ALL ... APPEARING TO BE AN ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDY AT TIMES. STRONGEST OF WINDS CENTERING AROUND THE FORECAST FRONTALBOUNDARY WITH THE ISALLOBARIC-GRADIENT RESPONSE PARENT TO A FORECASTAMPLIFIED PATTERN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Scooter's friend Sipprell uses this word in every one of his AFD's. ALL IN ALL ... APPEARING TO BE AN ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDY AT TIMES. STRONGEST OF WINDS CENTERING AROUND THE FORECAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE ISALLOBARIC-GRADIENT RESPONSE PARENT TO A FORECAST AMPLIFIED PATTERN. Meh, maybe next Friday, otherwise nothing really jumps out around our region. Maybe there will be another 36 hour lead time advisory that doesn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Scooter's friend Sipprell uses this word in every one of his AFD's. ALL IN ALL ... APPEARING TO BE AN ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDY AT TIMES. STRONGEST OF WINDS CENTERING AROUND THE FORECAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE ISALLOBARIC-GRADIENT RESPONSE PARENT TO A FORECAST AMPLIFIED PATTERN. That makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 That makes no sense.Why does he try to get so fancy in every AFD? Nothing looks windy next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Why does he try to get so fancy in every AFD? Nothing looks windy next week The AFDs are meant to be somewhat technical, but with all due respect to him.....I feel like like he pretty much disrobes as he writes these AFDs, possibly even making out with himself. Sometimes these boards are filled with lots of technical jargon with the premise of having weenies bow down in awe. The person that really does know his stuff has the ability to explain it in plain language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 We may even avoid a 60 next week. Still hard to believe. Went from a week + of modeled 60's and 70's to 40's and 50's and then a winter blast next weekend and beyond with squalls and snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 We may even avoid a 60 next week. Still hard to believe. Went from a week + of modeled 60's and 70's to 40's and 50's and then a winter blast next weekend and beyond with squalls and snow chancesLooks like you've sweated out the last drop of torch out of you. It's cold and snow goggle season until Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 That makes no sense.Did he use the term in the wrong way or does it not fit with the idea it is meant for public consumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Did he use the term in the wrong way or does it not fit with the idea it is meant for public consumption. Probably wrong application. Yes winds will be gusty if associated with coupled pressure falls/rises in an amplified pattern, however running through the modeled forecast and the best fall/rise couplets track north or west of here (outside of that Friday window I mentioned). So in other words, not exactly a windy stretch by any means. I think that implies something more than your average fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Why does he try to get so fancy in every AFD? Nothing looks windy next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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