CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Lol.didn't he say GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Lol. Nothing like a 234 hour OP map to make a point about the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Sorry weens.. Autocorrect changed it to GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Nothing like a 234 hour OP map to make a point about the GFS ensembles.same op has a high of 39 Turkey day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 same op has a high of 39 Turkey day1044 Scooter high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Nothing like a 234 hour OP map to make a point about the GFS ensembles. He is claiming this is 2011-2012 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I thought eps had some chill 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 He is claiming this is 2011-2012 all over again. Yeah that in itself is bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 How is that not a possibility? Just blinders on.. Cold ,colder, coldest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 same op has a high of 39 Turkey day I thought we were already told we torch on Thanksgiving? Shirts and skins football games, dining on the deck, people enjoying the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 How is that not a possibility? Just blinders on.. Cold ,colder, coldest?2011-2012 was a La Niña in high solar that fall. I'm not sure where you keep getting the impression that everyone is going cold. I think a lot of people expect DJF to average warmer than normal. But this El Niño should behave a lot different than 2011-2012. If the black hole of death looks ugly late this month or in December, you'll hear plenty about it. There's already some good signs that the snow cover feedback is helping out (big ridging for a while now near Kara). Finally, an ugly December really wouldn't be that strange in an El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I thought we were already told we torch on Thanksgiving? Shirts and skins football games, dining on the deck, people enjoying the season.You were told that the Euro op showed that. But that's all you were told. No need to make things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 2011-2012 was a La Niña in high solar that fall. I'm not sure where you keep getting the impression that everyone is going cold. I think a lot of people expect DJF to average warmer than normal. But this El Niño should behave a lot different than 2011-2012. If the black hole of death looks ugly late this month or in December, you'll hear plenty about it. There's already some good signs that the snow cover feedback is helping out (big ridging for a while now near Kara). Finally, an ugly December really wouldn't be that strange in an El Niño. I haven't seen anyone with a cold winter except JB and D'aleo. I get that was a Nina. This is the strongest Nino in history. Ever. I'm not comparing the two. What I'm saying is that winter models kept getting rid of that black hole and promising cold. It never happened. So a legitimate concern is something like that may happen in such a massive hard Nino. It doesn't have to happen and could very well not. But I don't know I'm getting flak for at least mentioning it as a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Yeah that in itself is bad enough. I know. It just gets tiresome to respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I haven't seen anyone with a cold winter except JB and D'aleo. I get that was a Nina. This is the strongest Nino in history. Ever. I'm not comparing the two. What I'm saying is that winter models kept getting rid of that black hole and promising cold. It never happened. So a legitimate concern is something like that may happen in such a massive hard Nino. It doesn't have to happen and could very well not. But I don't know I'm getting flak for at least mentioning it as a possibility That winter never even had much in the way of cold into the conus like some models have out in the west and plains. These cold dumps as stated many times, will focus west first. That means you could see a strong low rip into the lakes. However I think you may see some successive shifts east with some cold as shown in the ensembles. It's not a deep cold and wintry pattern here, but it's certainly a different look from previous weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I haven't seen anyone with a cold winter except JB and D'aleo. I get that was a Nina. This is the strongest Nino in history. Ever. I'm not comparing the two. What I'm saying is that winter models kept getting rid of that black hole and promising cold. It never happened. So a legitimate concern is something like that may happen in such a massive hard Nino. It doesn't have to happen and could very well not. But I don't know I'm getting flak for at least mentioning it as a possibility I suggest you read the AER discussion to get another perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I haven't seen anyone with a cold winter except JB and D'aleo. I get that was a Nina. This is the strongest Nino in history. Ever. I'm not comparing the two. What I'm saying is that winter models kept getting rid of that black hole and promising cold. It never happened. So a legitimate concern is something like that may happen in such a massive hard Nino. It doesn't have to happen and could very well not. But I don't know I'm getting flak for at least mentioning it as a possibility You get flak when you post a d10 OP model solution to support some idea in which your visual evidence has almost no skill at predicting. You don't have to post 2011-2012 Dejavu every time a model run doesn't show cold in the extended. The ensembles have been fairly consistent on showing a colder (not frigid) pattern for late November....there may be a cutter if the SW trough digs but that still won't change the overall cooler pattern look. It might give us a warm day or two in between but that is how it works in the extended. You can't guarantee cutters don't happen. Take a deep breath and maybe come back after T-day if you don't like model uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 It's just if you question things with warm alternatives here , it generally gets jumped on and harassed. I want cold and snow more than most folks. But let's not deny a good pattern and winter is not overly likely this winter. It's ok to post possible alternative unwanted scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 It's just if you question things with warm alternatives here , it generally gets jumped on and harassed. I want cold and snow more than most folks. But let's not deny a good pattern and winter is not overly likely this winter. It's ok to post possible alternative unwanted scenarios Yeah but as we've seen every year on these boards, cancelling winter in November is generally unwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Yeah but as we've seen every year on these boards, cancelling winter in November is generally unwise.using a 234 GFS run to say its similar to 11,12 is a rookie move. I like the back to back belly to belly Jan cancels the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Yeah but as we've seen every year on these boards, cancelling winter in November is generally unwise.I haven't seen anyone cancel winter except Fork. Have seen people discuss ratter and finishing below normal in snowfall though. And those forecasts have generally been attacked on here. We'll see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 It's just if you question things with warm alternatives here , it generally gets jumped on and harassed. I want cold and snow more than most folks. But let's not deny a good pattern and winter is not overly likely this winter. It's ok to post possible alternative unwanted scenariosWe attack you all the time when you make unreasonably optimistic snow forecasts in winter before events. Sounds like selective memory to me.There's no doubt that there is a cold bias on the board in winter but that doesn't mean crappy forecasts for lots of snow don't go uncriticized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 It's just if you question things with warm alternatives here , it generally gets jumped on and harassed. I want cold and snow more than most folks. But let's not deny a good pattern and winter is not overly likely this winter. It's ok to post possible alternative unwanted scenarios I haven't seen anyone cancel winter except Fork. Have seen people discuss ratter and finishing below normal in snowfall though. And those forecasts have generally been attacked on here. We'll see how it plays out It's hard to follow you sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 I haven't seen anyone cancel winter except Fork. Have seen people discuss ratter and finishing below normal in snowfall though. And those forecasts have generally been attacked on here. We'll see how it plays out You cancelled it with your "outlook".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 You cancelled it with your "outlook"..Cancelling would be ruling out a decent period or month . Feb I called for AN snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Cancelling would be ruling out a decent period or month . Feb I called for AN snow.like 11-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Cancelling would be ruling out a decent period or month . Feb I called for AN snow. Dude, calling for 22" is cancelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Dude, calling for 22" is cancelling.Cancelling would be saying winter is cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Dude, calling for 22" is cancelling. Nah, apparently calling for half your normal snowfall is no longer cancelling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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