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Ginx snewx

No Joaquin the park forecast for Mets

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I know. More period will hug it and hug it too much until another Jan 27 debacle happens again. 

 

Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model.

 

The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system.

 

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Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model.

The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system.

It didn't give NYC's deformation band to ginx? And it was 24 hrs out or something like that.

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Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model.

 

The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system.

 

 

Yeah I don't mean to compare that with this. That storm was a small shift, all things considered. This one was a fail of diagnosing the environment around the storm and beyond.  I was just using that as an example.

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Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model.

 

The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system.

 

 

Exactly. That forecast was a disaster... way worse than the model's performance. 

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Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model.

The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system.

Euro missed more than that i thought. Final solution, yes about 50 miles....but leading up to at day 2 and 24hr out it was off by a good 100-150 miles showing philly with 30"+.... In winter that's alot of real estate to be off by.

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Yeah I don't mean to compare that with this. That storm was a small shift, all things considered. This one was a fail of diagnosing the environment around the storm and beyond.  I was just using that as an example.

 

I mean it's interesting when you consider all the money and time spent on things like the HWRF. Yeah, it did a great job in retrospect sniffing out the intensity possibilities, but it only knows what's going on with the TC itself in a sense. The ECMWF has a better handle on the basic upper air pattern, and therefore has a better handle on the track.

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Euro missed more than that i thought. Final solution, yes about 50 miles....but leading up to at day 2 and 24hr out it was off by a good 100-150 miles showing philly with 30"+.... In winter that's alot of real estate to be off by.

 

Models are blind to population. It's our job to explain impacts, the Euro only follows the physics. In the end a 100 mile shift is big in terms of impacts, but much smaller in the modeling world.

 

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Easy for the guys who got 3 feet to say it was slightly off...but to us who got nothing it's a different perspective.

 

Nobody is stealing your snow, it's just a reality. When you're on the western edge 50 miles can mean the difference between all or nothing.

 

Joaquin could've been 50 miles north and gotten sucked right into the East Coast by the approaching trough, but it buried SW and we're left with this forecast.

 

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Models are blind to population. It's our job to explain impacts, the Euro only follows the physics. In the end a 100 mile shift is big in terms of impacts, but much smaller in the modeling world.

True..I see your point.

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Models are blind to population. It's our job to explain impacts, the Euro only follows the physics. In the end a 100 mile shift is big in terms of impacts, but much smaller in the modeling world.

But it was 24 hours out.

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Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model.

 

The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system.

 

 

I actually thought the Euro was worse in the 2/15 storm.

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It didn't give NYC's deformation band to ginx? And it was 24 hrs out or something like that.

 

Central LI got smoked, so it really wasn't that far off. It was a failed forecast...it was worse than models like the RGEM and UKMET, but it wasn't an epic model collapse. It was too aggresive by <50 miles.

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Nobody is stealing your snow, it's just a reality. When you're on the western edge 50 miles can mean the difference between all or nothing.

Joaquin could've been 50 miles north and gotten sucked right into the East Coast by the approaching trough, but it buried SW and we're left with this forecast.

Um....ok. not saying my snow was stolen but when ur on the outside looking In it's a different perspective. I've been on the inside with boxing day so I see both sides.

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I think when the date arrives we can start a thread and look back at runs in painful memory for myself and those to the SW.

I think the big totals were modeled well into NJ.

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Refresh my memory.

Mid level magic.

Maine was supposed to get a 2 foot blizzard and they basically got a dusting. E MA and parts of NH stole the show. Tho that was more of a monster QPF bust rather than an issue with storm track. But it was still very unusual for it to be that off.

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I saw the HWRF go as low as 912mb, now that is extremely low, record top ten hurricanes of all time low in the Atlantic Basin.  However I think the HH recon plane will find a pressure near 925mb and winds near 150mph with the pinhole eye around 14nm wide.  That is my guess on the first vortex message this evening.

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