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9/27-9/29/15 Big Surf /High Astronomical Tides/Showers


bluewave

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While it's still beyond 5 days away, the models are indicating that there will be

a storm pressing north against a very strong high by later in the weekend.

It's still too early to know how far north the heaviest rains will get. But the strong

onshore flow is occurring at the time of some of the highest astronomical

tides of 2015. All it would take for minor flooding are tides .5 to 1 foot above

normal. A 2 foot surge would be near the the moderate flooding level. Large

waves and beach erosion could also be possible. We have time to track

since the potential is still outside the 120 hr range.

 

Sandy Hook tides as a reference

 

 

http://earthsky.org/?p=190918

 

 

If you live along a coastline, watch for high tides caused by the September 28 perigee full moon – or supermoon – over the next several days. Will the high tides cause flooding? Probably not, unless a strong weather system moves into the coastline where you are. Still, keep an eye on the weather, because storms do have a large potential to accentuate high spring tides.

As a result, if you live near a coast, you’ll want to be on the lookout for higher-than-usual tides.

Because the moon – as always – shines pretty much opposite the sun at the vicinity of full moon, you’ll see the moon beaming all night tonight from dusk until dawn. This extra-close full moon is likely to usher in large tides along the ocean shorelines for the next several days, especially if these high tides are accompanied by strong onshore winds.

Bottom line: The full moon of September 28, 2015 is the closest and largest full moon of this year. By a new definition – one that has entered the world of astronomy from astrology – many will call it a supermoon. There are three full moons in 2015 that meet the definition of a supermoon – August, September and October. But this September 28 full moon is the mostsuper of the supermoons! A super-duper moon!

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While it's still beyond 5 days away, the models are indicating that there will be

a storm pressing north against a very strong high by later in the weekend.

It's still too early to know how far the heaviest rains will get. But the strong

onshore flow is occurring at the time of some of the highest astronomical

tides of 2015. All it would take for minor flooding are tides .5 to 1 foot above

normal. A 2 foot surge would be near the the moderate flooding level. Large

waves and beach erosion could also be possible. We have time to track

since the potential is still outside the 120 hr range.

Sandy Hook tides as a reference

attachicon.gifserveimage.gif

http://earthsky.org/?p=190918

If you live along a coastline, watch for high tides caused by the September 28 perigee full moon – or supermoon – over the next several days. Will the high tides cause flooding? Probably not, unless a strong weather system moves into the coastline where you are. Still, keep an eye on the weather, because storms do have a large potential to accentuate high spring tides.

As a result, if you live near a coast, you’ll want to be on the lookout for higher-than-usual tides.

Because the moon – as always – shines pretty much opposite the sun at the vicinity of full moon, you’ll see the moon beaming all night tonight from dusk until dawn. This extra-close full moon is likely to usher in large tides along the ocean shorelines for the next several days, especially if these high tides are accompanied by strong onshore winds.

Bottom line: The full moon of September 28, 2015 is the closest and largest full moon of this year. By a new definition – one that has entered the world of astronomy from astrology – many will call it a supermoon. There are three full moons in 2015 that meet the definition of a supermoon – August, September and October. But this September 28 full moon is the mostsuper of the supermoons! A super-duper moon!

Wow. Could this help cool down the warm pool off the coast bluewave?
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We'll probably need additional runs to be sure. The 9/21 12z ECMWF showed 0.00" qpf for NYC, while the 9/22 0z run showed 1.91". That's an enormous change, so some measure of caution is probably helpful.

Don, the ensembles only had .1-.2 qpf as well. Definitely a red flag for the 00z op run.

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The 12z Euro looks south, at least through Sunday afternoon.

 

It looks absolutely raw for the Jets game with temps in the middle 60's, a stiff Easterly wind of 20-30MPH and mostly cloudy to overcast skies. 

 

The saving grace will be that at least on the Euro, the cloud deck looks to be elevated. 

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I actually want the rain to miss on Sunday as I have tickets for the Jets game, but I don't understand how people can call something a forgone conclusion when the system is still 5+ days away. 

 

Have you all not seen how terrible models can be at this range?

I don't think it's over by a long shot, but that high has been persistent for a good chunk of time, so in the end, persistence is the way to go with the dry pattern.

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I don't think it's over by a long shot, but that high has been persistent for a good chunk of time, so in the end, persistence is the way to go with the dry pattern.

Winds may end up being the main story. The low pressure system remains weak so you're not going to end up with as big of pressure gradient as you might normally have with a deepening surface low but things could still be quite gusty, especially on the coastal plain. 

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The 12z Euro looks south, at least through Sunday afternoon.

It looks absolutely raw for the Jets game with temps in the middle 60's, a stiff Easterly wind of 20-30MPH and mostly cloudy to overcast skies.

The saving grace will be that at least on the Euro, the cloud deck looks to be elevated.

Sounds like football weather to me.

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