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PSUBlizzicane2007

Tropical Storm Erika

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Good, have the play by play there then.

 

Or.... you could choose not to read the thread. People like me don't really have the time/knowledge to read models and need play by plays. I'm sure a majority of the users here are just like me and are very interested to see how this plays out.

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I wouldn't consider this LLC any kind of permanent feature ...wrt to the overall spatial-temporal existence of Erika.

 

It is more likely you are just observing one of many LLC that have been developed, then ultimately slipped out away from the UVM axis, associated with the on-going apparent ml vortex component.  

 

I distinctly recall a LLC also appearing to be ejected WNW from Erika last evening, just before dark.  Then I see this one doing the same similar behavior.  Unless yesterday's looped back E then S then went up underneath ...then got ejected all over again, you are not observing the same feature. I don't believe there has been any looping of the lower component of the vortex - no.

 

It is more likely that new LLCs are forming and subsequently being ejected as the system's total vertical structure remains tilted toward the SE.  The dissipate shortly after eject. Following then from logic ... saying that the "center" appears to be moving NNW and will be free of island interference is less than logical sounding.

If this is the case with multiple centers ejecting our etc or appearing disappearing and appearing again good luck to the models to have anything accurate in the next day or two considering it is very difficult to tell what is truly the actual center.

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For muse only ... but Hugo hit near there... strong too. I think it RI'ed (or close to it) when it crossed the g-string

 

140904_hurr.hugo.jpg

Hugo made landfall at Chaleston South Carolina looks like that HRWF is targeting the Svannah to Hilton Head Island area.

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Perhaps later in his life, but watching this video below, Hugo was only a Cat. 2 while in the Bahamas. Perhaps some RI at play.

 

 

No, Hugo was a Cat 5 East of the Caribbean. Weakened  and then later re-intensified into a Cat 4 before landfall.  It's really easy to look these things up, you know. 

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Or.... you could choose not to read the thread. People like me don't really have the time/knowledge to read models and need play by plays. I'm sure a majority of the users here are just like me and are very interested to see how this plays out.

Does anyone really "need play by plays" for a tropical cyclone beyond 72 hours? What's insufficient with just a description or map of an entire model suite after the runs are done?

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Not quite sure throwing the Hugo word around is a good idea.  From what I understand the highest wind speed measured in Charleston was 108 MPH around land fall though.

 

While this storm could be even stronger, the models aren't selling me on any specific track.   The GFS ensembles I saw last seemed like they were still split between the Gulf and up the SE coast mainly.  Then you still have the out to sea solutions that are the most sensible if this thing starts to strengthen quicker.

 

I asked this, but didn't see a response before.  What model did well with Danny?  I know the Euro was shearing him out while other's weren't.  Isn't that basically what happened in the end?  I didn't have much time to pay close attention to each model/run of it.

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Does anyone really "need play by plays" for a tropical cyclone beyond 72 hours? What's insufficient with just a description or map of an entire model suite after the runs are done?

Some people are maybe addicted, others bored, others to be informed, and still others looking to learn something.

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Or.... you could choose not to read the thread. People like me don't really have the time/knowledge to read models and need play by plays. I'm sure a majority of the users here are just like me and are very interested to see how this plays out.

You have 1100 posts, I am sure you know where to find the GFS and follow the plot on there. Plus there are plenty of play by plays in every sub forum up and down the east coast, you can easily find the information there. The play by plays of every model however don't need to clog down the main thread which should be used for analysis and current data.

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Why is the strongest convection continually developing on the south side?

My best guess is that stronger shear on the north side is prohibiting much convection from going up, and drier air to the north could also play some role in that... Also most of it appears the be forming near/in the MLC. 

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This is no Hugo.  Hugo was a cat 5 in the Caribbean. 

 

No ... untrue. 

 

It briefly entered Cat 5 status approximately 400 KM E of the Leeward Islands, and in fact, Hugo was never IN the Caribbean during that phase. 

 

Not trying to be a dink, just pointing things out.   word

 

Hugo_track2.png

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My best guess is that stronger shear on the north side is prohibiting much convection from going up, and drier air to the north could also play some role in that... Also most of it appears the be forming near/in the MLC. 

 

Best answer ..

 

If the drop sondes could be reviewed by hurricane hunters, there may be some indication in there for an intervening layer that is not readily observable via conventional satellite channels available to the public.  

 

Otherwise, heh .. But as others have noted, there some convection blossoming a little closer to that partial LLC ejection from late this afternoon.  Not sure if it will hold though; there supposed to be hostile influences no the system for the next 36 or so hours - mountainous terrain or not. 

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Usually strongest convection is downshear right I believe

That might be it. 

 

0z models will be prolly be the most telling with 2 flights at the same time right now. 

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Can anyone tell, based on the overall structural tilt, eddies within the broad LLC, and convective pattern, where a main center may consolidate overnight and whether it would favor a landfall on Hispaniola? With such a weak system, could frictional convergence over Puerto Rico help transfer energy to the north side of the island and consolidate a center that stays off Hispaniola? (Note: I don't expect that to happen, but I'm still learning.)

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Looks like the surface center is passing just south of St. Croix right now, with surface obs reporting rapidly falling pressures, down to at least 1006 mb.  This is likely the low cloud swirl that was evident on visible earlier today, before being obscured by adjacent convection.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 0:21Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2015
Storm Name: Erika (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 23:27:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°37'N 64°38'W (16.6167N 64.6333W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,149m (10,331ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 22kts (~ 25.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 102 nautical miles (117 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 76° at 38kts (From the ENE at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 101 nautical miles (116 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
 
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) which was observed 96 nautical miles (110 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 23:56:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 145° at 10kts (From the SE at 12mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 12°C (54°F) which was observed 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the NNW (340°) from the flight level center
 

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18Z HWRF now is like the Euro. very weak, over FL eventually. GFDL still super strong and a near miss.

 

GFDL moving NW at end, might hit VA if kept going. 

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18Z HWRF now is like the Euro. very weak, over FL eventually. GFDL still super strong and a near miss.

Yeah the HWRF obliterates it when it hits the eastern end of Hispaniola.

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