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Tropics: Erika


SACRUS

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Yes.

Also this "storm" hasn't been inside one official NHC forecast cone over the last 2 and a half days. The sad part is they update it every 6 hours.

This is coming from someone who never blasts the NHC (or NWS).

Almost amusing how they just bodily shift the cone west a little more every 6 hours and assume an immediate NW motion even when Erika is headed almost due west. Before too long this will end up over me. 

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Longest hurricane free streak in Florida continues and is approaching 10 years.

But there have been numerous tropical storms or remnants that have produced

very heavy to record rainfalls.

 

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/florida-hurricane-drought-erika

If long range guidance is to be believed.  If we transition into a La Nina next summer and the AMO flips as suggested, that streak could end.

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Longest hurricane free streak in Florida continues and is approaching 10 years.

But there have been numerous tropical storms or remnants that have produced

very heavy to record rainfalls.

 

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/florida-hurricane-drought-erika

Pasco county has seen flooding rains lately...They don't need any more rain...the late 40's and the mid 2000's had Florida in the cross hairs...It will change again and they will get clobbered somewhere...

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What was once a possible threat to the U.S is a now just a piece of crap disturbance ( Erika ). Please bring on Winter. This summer has been really boring.

 

The strong Nino should mean there are plenty of storms around at least. Whether they're rain or snow however...

 

I'll be happy to see the rain start back up here after this summer dried everything up. Should be plenty stormy in the South. 

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If long range guidance is to be believed.  If we transition into a La Nina next summer and the AMO flips as suggested, that streak could end.

 

It could always end at any point,but it's pretty impressive that it occurred mostly during a +AMO era.

The Danny stats are pretty remarkable also.

 

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/635882263553572865?lang=en

 

Danny is the 26th Atl MH in a row to not impact the US as a MH. Odds are ~1:7400, given the 1900-2000 rate of 29% of all MH impacting US.

 

Danny generated 9.2 ACE. This is the least generated by a MH forming south of 20N, east of 60W since 1950 - beating Fred in 2009 (9.9 ACE).

 

Since 2011, 6 of 9 (67%) of Atlantic major hurricanes (MH) have lasted less than 1 day at MH strength. The 1900-2000 average is 29%.

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It could always end at any point,but it's pretty impressive that it occurred mostly during a +AMO era.

The Danny stats are pretty remarkable also.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/635882263553572865?lang=en

Danny is the 26th Atl MH in a row to not impact the US as a MH. Odds are ~1:7400, given the 1900-2000 rate of 29% of all MH impacting US.

Danny generated 9.2 ACE. This is the least generated by a MH forming south of 20N, east of 60W since 1950 - beating Fred in 2009 (9.9 ACE).

Since 2011, 6 of 9 (67%) of Atlantic major hurricanes (MH) have lasted less than 1 day at MH strength. The 1900-2000 average is 29%.

Amazing. We are due for a big one. Danny did produce a fun small mid level swell for the east coast. Fun waves the last two days

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Amazing. We are due for a big one. Danny did produce a fun small mid level swell for the east coast. Fun waves the last two days

Surprised anything even made it all the way up there given how tiny Danny was and how short of a time it was a hurricane. 

 

I still remember the swells Sandy made-that was the craziest thing I'd ever seen, up until the night it hit of course. Each of those sounded like a nuclear bomb when they crashed. 

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Which is why everyone should be accepting of Erika dieing out before she had legs. The possible scenarios were unprecedented. Even as a Tropical Wave, she caused immense flooding in Florida.

How is it unprecedented for a tropical storm or weak hurricane to hit Florida? Sounds like another one of your snarky "eveeything is caused by global warming" comments.
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Which is why everyone should be accepting of Erika dieing out before she had legs. The possible scenarios were unprecedented. Even as a Tropical Wave, she caused immense flooding in Florida.

Any tropical system can cause immense flooding. Allison in 2001 cause immense flooding in TX long after landfall. Erika wasn't "unprecedented" in any way. Since parts of FL are still in a drought, it was welcomed. 

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Mark my words, it would of been unprecedented had it developed into a hurricane. Unprecedented in terms of long-term impacts and 50/50 chance of Sandy part 2.

 

 

 

How is it unprecedented for a tropical storm or weak hurricane to hit Florida? Sounds like another one of your snarky "eveeything is caused by global warming" comments. 

That is just your mind trying to rationalize your way out. It's time to accept reality.

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Mark my words, it would of been unprecedented had it developed into a hurricane. Unprecedented in terms of long-term impacts and 50/50 chance of Sandy part 2.

That is just your mind trying to rationalize your way out. It's time to accept reality.

You trolling?

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I have the ensemble graphics. The setup was ripe for a hooking TC, possibly major traveling over a record warm gulf stream.

^Isentropic

It looks like we'll have more chances. The GFS has another Cape Verde storm developing South of Fred in a few days that eventually runs into the shear axis over the NE Caribbean.
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