Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Tropics: Erika


SACRUS

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 141
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I think one run of the Canadian and more than a few GFS Ensembles had Erika lingering through 6 high tide cycles. GFDL had a 929mb off VA beach hooking NW. I'll never forget the model runs, they were unprecedented.

You must be new to model tracking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You must be new to model tracking.

No, I challenge you to find a similar setup. They were not just model runs. You had a unusual cutoff ULL over the GOM and a huge blocking ridge over the North Atlantic.

 

The above scenario did not materialize due to internal issues with Erika not developing enough. Deep down Erika Models > Sandy Models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While Erika had the chance of delivering a high impact to our area, the odds were still stacked against that happening, even if the she had make it into the Bahamas in tact. Most of the modeling was stalling the system near the Carolina coast or moving it due East once past OBX. Neither of those setups would have been good for us. The only model that really showed a threatening scenario was the GGEM which we all know is highly unstable and highly unreliable. Even though a few GFS runs showed a hooking system, it was in the extended range and the GFS is very unreliable once beyond day 7.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...