IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 According to this the LLC is still well displaced from the deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 According to this the LLC is still well displaced from the deep convection. She's not forecast to become a hurricane for several days, so I'm not surprised by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Whenever I see people bringing up diurnal max, I assume that the system is in trouble. And I don't even know what diurnal max is, I just associate it with the winter storm equivalent of "it will manufacture its own cold air" when people are grasping at straws on a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Whenever I see people bringing up diurnal max, I assume that the system is in trouble. And I don't even know what diurnal max is, I just associate it with the winter storm equivalent of "it will manufacture its own cold air" when people are grasping at straws on a system. http://weather.about.com/od/temperatures/a/Diurnal-Cycle.htm The Diurnal cycle certainly is not made up. You tend to hear about it when tropical cyclones are struggling to develop deep convection. The maximum occurs at night and that's typically why you will see a big flare up in the late afternoon and peaking in the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Whenever I see people bringing up diurnal max, I assume that the system is in trouble. And I don't even know what diurnal max is, I just associate it with the winter storm equivalent of "it will manufacture its own cold air" when people are grasping at straws on a system. Lol that sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 http://weather.about.com/od/temperatures/a/Diurnal-Cycle.htm The Diurnal cycle certainly is not made up. You tend to hear about it when tropical cyclones are struggling to develop deep convection. The maximum occurs at night and that's typically why you will see a big flare up in the late afternoon and peaking in the early morning hours. I don't think he was saying it was made up. He was simply saying if people are mentioning it there's a good chance that means the storm is struggling a bit perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I don't think he was saying it was made up. He was simply saying if people are mentioning it there's a good chance that means the storm is struggling a bit perhaps. It's doing pretty much exactly as expected/forecasted with typical track wobbles. Erika has had virtually no chance to become a cane until the storm moves past the DR and NHC has been spot on the whole time. Now what us weenies are hoping for is something different. lol. Right now all we can do is hope the center stays north of the mountains of the DR. That would be a setback for sure. Once the center moves into a low shear environment near the bahamas we could get a glimpse of the rapid development/stacking that we are all salivating for. But any chance of that is a few days away and unfortunately there's a good chance things get worse before they get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 It's doing pretty much exactly as expected/forecasted with typical track wobbles. Erika has had virtually no chance to become a cane until the storm moves past the DR and NHC has been spot on the whole time. Now what us weenies are hoping for is something different. lol. Right now all we can do is hope the center stays north of the mountains of the DR. That would be a setback for sure. Once the center moves into a low shear environment near the bahamas we could get a glimpse of the rapid development/stacking that we are all salivating for. But any chance of that is a few days away and unfortunately there's a good chance things get worse before they get better. I'm not sold it misses DR - with this south adjustment (and it could still reform even further south perhaps) it'll have to be a thread the needle. I think we can sustain a bit if interaction with the landmass but not a full on track over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Since nobody really gave an actual explanation, I'll try to briefly summarize. Diurnal max would be the time of day that tropical systems have their highest potential for strengthening (late afternoon I think?) and diurnal min would be the time of night when tropical systems would most likely weaken. If someone wants to get more technical, please do! Another important part of the max is the location irt the center of circ. When it's displaced (likes it's been the last couple days) it doesn't really mean all that much compared to when the max is centered. You still want to see healthy convection of course but it's hard to get excited until things start to work in unison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 It's doing pretty much exactly as expected/forecasted with typical track wobbles. Erika has had virtually no chance to become a cane until the storm moves past the DR and NHC has been spot on the whole time. Now what us weenies are hoping for is something different. lol. Right now all we can do is hope the center stays north of the mountains of the DR. That would be a setback for sure. Once the center moves into a low shear environment near the bahamas we could get a glimpse of the rapid development/stacking that we are all salivating for. But any chance of that is a few days away and unfortunately there's a good chance things get worse before they get better. This is the one time I'm hoping for dissipation. Myrtle Beach late next week. Booyah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I'm not sold it misses DR - with this south adjustment (and it could still reform even further south perhaps) it'll have to be a thread the needle. I think we can sustain a bit if interaction with the landmass but not a full on track over it. Crawl walk and run right? As long as there is defined circulation and not an open wave when the storm moves towards the bahamas then it shouldn't be too hard to get a hurricane going. As far as getting some sort of impact in our area goes...total la la land and way to much has to happen first. Ens still don't really show any obvious steering features from hr 144+. Assuming there is a cane east of FL somewhere, the track is wide open and forward motion looks slow unless things change (which they probably will). Euro and GEFS look pretty similar @ 144 H5 and MSLP plots imply a slow walk into the SE coast somewhere and the MSLP plots show a bit of a wall from easy northward progress. The models showing a stall and slow spinning death are reasonable solutions but who the heck knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Weak and west is still winning.. NHC seems too north still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Weak and west is still winning.. NHC seems too north still. 11 A.M. Ensembles support NHC's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 11 A.M. Ensembles support NHC's track. most start north of where it is too. i mean eventually it'll come north but they have an almost due NW motion immediately. so far it's been mostly chugging west plus the center adjustment south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I'm fine with this track as long as map girl doesn't get any snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 I'm fine with this track as long as map girl doesn't get any snow Sent from my iPhone im perfectly fine with that too. see you again in a few months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The GFS maintains a strong MLC with strong 500mb vorticy entering the Turks late tomorrow and then into the Bahamas this weekend. That's pretty much the key to survival. Only out to hr 63 but my guess is that it will continue to show steady organization once near the Western Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Hr 84 12z GFS has Erika (or whats left) approaching MIA and S FL and sits there just off the coast through 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Hr 84 GFS has Erika (or whats left) approaching MIA and S FL Better to focus on what's going on aloft rather than at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I don't think he was saying it was made up. He was simply saying if people are mentioning it there's a good chance that means the storm is struggling a bit perhaps. Yes. That was my tongue - in -cheek - sorta, point. It is a thing - but if I see people talking about it - it is usually because they are trying to breathe life into a ragged system. Anecdotal observation, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Better to focus on what's going on aloft rather than at the surface. Erika's SLP is still meandering up the East coast of FL for more than 30 hrs, which won't be conducive for much strengthening at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Erika's SLP is still meandering up the East coast of FL for more than 30 hrs, which won't be conducive for much strengthening at all Almost identical to yesterday's 12z GFS solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I'm fine with this track as long as map girl doesn't get any snow Sent from my iPhone This tropical storm will generate its own cold air for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 To me the 12z GFS is just trying to use Erika to define the Bermuda high. It will keep placing it where it thinks the edge will be. At least it stopped slamming it into the high like it was doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Shredderola ruins all dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Erika is moonlighting as a coastal cartographer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Erika is moonlighting as a coastal cartographer. Another bizarre run on the way, you might get your left hook this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 Erika is moonlighting as a coastal cartographer. sounds like a terrible idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Another bizarre run on the way, you might get your left hook this time. Turns east eventually.. headed southeast by 228 off SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Better to focus on what's going on aloft rather than at the surface. Who gives a sh*t what's going on aloft if it's not translating down to the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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