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August 1st-7th Severe Weather Threat


HillsdaleMIWeather

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The low MLCAPE concerns me a bit, though that should improve into the evening.

 

I figure that's pretty much indicative of the dry air mixing downward, as there isn't much of a cap. And that's probably why the storms that attempted to fire on the SW wing of the MCS in Ontario failed to materialize.

 

850mb transport vectors does show better moisture advecting in though.

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mcd1589.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...

VALID 022208Z - 022345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD
POOL ...ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A MORE
GRADUAL GENERAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM ALSO OCCURRING. A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

DISCUSSION...THE SEGMENT OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE WITH A BOW ECHO
SIGNATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 50 KT...ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW...AND WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN THUMB BY AROUND
23Z. SEVERAL 3- SECOND PEAK GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT ASOS SITES
WITH THIS FEATURE.

ANOTHER STRONG COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITH UPSCALE
GROWING CONVECTION TO THE WEST...AND MAY ACCELERATE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AT SIMILAR VELOCITIES...INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COAST...THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR SMALL-SCALE BOW. GIVEN THE VERY WARM TO
HOT...FAIRLY DEEPLY MIXED...AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT
ACROSS THIS REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO
CONTINUING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD POOL...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS PROBABLE ALONG THE GUST
FRONT. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAGINAW/ LANSING/FLINT AREAS
BY THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/02/2015


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43948680 43908521 44068409 43878349 43598299 43348269
42878299 42578401 42688630 42918674 43338718 43668704
43948680 

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mcd1589.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0508 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...

VALID 022208Z - 022345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD

POOL ...ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS

CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A MORE

GRADUAL GENERAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE

SYSTEM ALSO OCCURRING. A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY

INCLUDING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

DISCUSSION...THE SEGMENT OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE WITH A BOW ECHO

SIGNATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST

SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 50 KT...ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW...AND WILL

PROGRESS ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN THUMB BY AROUND

23Z. SEVERAL 3- SECOND PEAK GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT ASOS SITES

WITH THIS FEATURE.

ANOTHER STRONG COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITH UPSCALE

GROWING CONVECTION TO THE WEST...AND MAY ACCELERATE EAST

SOUTHEASTWARD AT SIMILAR VELOCITIES...INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE

MICHIGAN COAST...THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN JUST TO

THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR SMALL-SCALE BOW. GIVEN THE VERY WARM TO

HOT...FAIRLY DEEPLY MIXED...AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT

ACROSS THIS REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO

CONTINUING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF

THE COLD POOL...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS PROBABLE ALONG THE GUST

FRONT. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAGINAW/ LANSING/FLINT AREAS

BY THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/02/2015

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43948680 43908521 44068409 43878349 43598299 43348269

42878299 42578401 42688630 42918674 43338718 43668704

43948680 

 

Hopefully I'm in it? They should do the rest of the Enhanced.

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New Watch, Not In it Again.

 

I assume they will do a watch or areal extension  for Southern Michigan (Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph-Branch-Hillsdale-Lenawee-Monroe) at a later time.

 

The New Watch is in effect until 2am.

 

Includes the remainder of MI except for the IN/OH border counties.

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A bow echo (or at least a bow-shaped thunderstorm) is about to catch up with a slower-moving heavy squall line in the Saginaw Bay. And all in the part of the country that can't seem to ever get CAPE.

Noticed it and wondered how it'd look after, its headed in a direction that could land it in my region. Likely other cells and the next line will form before that.

 

An epic MCS just tore across southwestern Ontario, and just missed me by 10 miles. Looks like I'll get some action nearby later.

Sent from my GT-N8010

I saw. My post is on page 3 but I'm still trying to keep up. It was the best storm of the year but ties June 23 for overall event.

 

Its getting dark here again, 2nd rounds this fast don't happen that much. TWN is screwed up on my end, just a filler screen and no video  :thumbsdown: . I'm so fed up with it, just ridiculous.

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Its getting dark here again, 2nd rounds this fast don't happen that much. TWN is screwed up on my end, just a filler screen and no video  :thumbsdown: . I'm so fed up with it, just ridiculous.

We need a better weather channel and warning system. Canada and much of the rest of the world are horribly outdated compared to the NWS. 

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MCS has taken a se turn. SEMI, SW Ontario are going to get pounded.

Goodness, this next line that is coming is going to be wicked. I can see frequent lightning already in the distance and I just feel this could be the worst storm in years here, worse than hours ago!! Getting really dark with rumbles, every second that goes by I can see the edge coming extremely fast!

 

We need a better weather channel and warning system. Canada and much of the rest of the world are horribly outdated compared to the NWS. 

Agreed, but its a network issue right now, I hate it at this time!

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
 
MIZ053-060>063-068>070-076-030115-
LIVINGSTON MI-GENESEE MI-MACOMB MI-SAGINAW MI-OAKLAND MI-WAYNE MI-
SHIAWASSEE MI-LAPEER MI-ST. CLAIR MI-
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ST. CLAIR...SOUTHWESTERN
SAGINAW...SHIAWASSEE...SOUTHERN LAPEER...SOUTHERN GENESEE...MACOMB...
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON...NORTHEASTERN WAYNE AND OAKLAND COUNTIES UNTIL
915 PM EDT...

AT 810 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG WINDS ALONG 
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF MARION SPRINGS TO NEAR 
ORTONVILLE TO NEAR MARYSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.  THERE 
ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE OF STRONG WINDS.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS GUST FRONT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ST. CLAIR...MARYSVILLE...GOODRICH AND ORTONVILLE AROUND 815 PM EDT.
  OXFORD AROUND 820 PM EDT.
  CLARKSTON AROUND 835 PM EDT.
  PONTIAC AND ALGONAC AROUND 840 PM EDT.
  LAINGSBURG AND WEST BLOOMFIELD AROUND 855 PM EDT.
  NOVI AROUND 900 PM EDT.
  LIVONIA AROUND 915 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS GUST FRONT INCLUDE CLINTON 
TOWNSHIP... DEERFIELD TOWNSHIP...HAZEL PARK...WATERFORD...RAY 
CENTER...WOLVERINE LAKE...PLEASANT RIDGE...RATTLE RUN...STONEY CREEK 
METRO PARK AND COMMERCE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4261 8255 4261 8252 4253 8267 4260 8271
      4267 8262 4269 8270 4265 8280 4257 8278
      4252 8268 4257 8283 4242 8288 4243 8339
      4265 8414 4278 8416 4278 8437 4322 8437
      4292 8344 4292 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 356DEG 26KT 4320 8447 4290 8343 4287 8240 

Well... That's interesting.

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