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Winter 2015-16 Discussion


Hoosier

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Huge indeed.  Basin-wide is the more accurate classification imo as all El Nino regions are in, well, El Nino.

 

I think I'd still call it relatively east based though right now, since Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 are significantly warmer than Nino 4. I would expect those to even out eventually.

 

That said, Nino 3 and 3.4 are really skyrocketing right now thanks to that very potent downwelling KW and corresponding intense WWB that Friv posted.

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I think some of the added attention on 82-83/97-98 is justified as they are 2 of the only "super" Ninos, not just regular strong, to occur in relatively contemporary times, and the current one will either get extremely close to super status or get there in the trimonthly readings.  That being said, it would be risky to only look at a couple years and nothing else. 

 

May post some preliminary thoughts in a couple weeks or so, specifically for Chicago area.  Pretty early still.  One thing I will say, and it's something that you've mentioned numerous times, is the recent trend toward snowier winters...I'm not sure it would be smart to totally ignore that, even though strong Nino winters historically have tended toward below average snow.  May make me more likely to nudge above the strong Nino composite for snow this winter, although that doesn't mean it will be great.

I follow the NE winter thread too, and post in it occasionally. I actually posted something in there today about temps+snow correlation. At my latitude particularly, while Im sure cold+snowy is a bit more common, its a true tossup. By this, I mean its easy to get a cold but dry winter or a mild but snowy one, just as it is to get a cold & snowy one or a mild and low snow one. So all the looking we do at models season temp forecasting maps, but thats just ONE piece of the puzzle. Further north and further south its more cut and dry, but here its a true tossup. Obviously the colder years are better for snowcover, which is MY thing, but if we are simply talking snowfall, we can easily see much more snow in a mild winter than a cold, dry one. So when I am constantly pointing out how strong nino does NOT automatically mean torch, its because it doesnt, not because Im trying to be a weenie. Because believe me, I can find several winters much colder than 1997-98 that saw less snowfall.

 

Nino aside, the point about snowier winters simply CANNOT be ignored. At Detroit, its not even just the unprecedented number of top 20 snowy winters we have had since 2003, of which I have well documented, but sometimes the true tale is looking at the less snowy winters. 2011-12, the winter from hell and the ONLY below normal snowfall winter we have had in the last 8 years, STILL saw more snowfall than it should have in the atrocious pattern. If ever there was a chance to end up with one of those rare sub-20" winters, it was that pattern. The winter of 2006-07 was a synoptic nightmare, but we instead got an unprecedented amount of Lake effect snow. The same was true of 2012-13, synoptic wasnt that great (not as bad as 06-07) but lake effect propelled it into a winter of above normal snowfall when it really shouldnt have been. The list goes on, but I cannot find a single winter in the last decade where we have been gypped on snowfall based on whatever pattern was in place. Not a single one.

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I won't re-quote and take up a lot of space on here. Everyone has made some excellent points. One reason that I don't give the biggest Ninos as much credit for what they are is that the 2 that most people talked about occurred in a multidecadal cycle where US winters averaged above normal in temperature from roughly 1980-2010. It's my belief that we are heading into the opposite mode now. The data I have would certainly agree. We also have an unprecedented amount of heat in the Pacific which we really have nothing to compare.

The amazing run that you folks up north have had is something quite special. Maybe it is related to the multidecadal cycle flipping that I mentioned above, maybe not. It has bounced around "normal" overall averaged for the last 10 years. These are just my thoughts. I'm sure some disagree and are welcome to.

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3.4 anomalies are higher now than 1997:

 

CQkfvCdUwAAQ5Dl.jpg

 

Also with the strong WWB going right now, the 1+2 region is skyrocketing:

 

nino12.png

 

Even if this is a basin wide El Nino, it is quickly refocusing on the Eastern side of Pacific. The highest anomalies will be found there going into winter.

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3.4 anomalies are higher now than 1997:

CQkfvCdUwAAQ5Dl.jpg

Also with the strong WWB going right now, the 1+2 region is skyrocketing:

nino12.png

Even if this is a basin wide El Nino, it is quickly refocusing on the Eastern side of Pacific. The highest anomalies will be found there going into winter.

My coworker and I will be working on a local winter outlook in November, but our preliminary thoughts are leaning toward the warm side of average and drier than average, considering local strong Niño climo and recent tendencies with the current episode. Snowfall is a big wild card because all it takes is 1 big one to get to near or above average (see Superbowl storm 2015) but will still likely lean to less snow than avg during met winter.
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My coworker and I will be working on a local winter outlook in November, but our preliminary thoughts are leaning toward the warm side of average and drier than average, considering local strong Niño climo and recent tendencies with the current episode. Snowfall is a big wild card because all it takes is 1 big one to get to near or above average (see Superbowl storm 2015) but will still likely lean to less snow than avg during met winter.

That would be how I would hedge my bets too. Last year proved it only takes one whopper storm to push you near to above normal. Without it here last year would have been a clunker, but we got 16.7" with that storm to push us to 47.5" on the year.

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At this moment in time this Nino is east based. We just had some recent warming in the eastern region.

 

ALSO to get a idea how this Nino compares to other recent events in all 4 enso regions..  Keep in mind this is MONTHLY not daily, weekly, or tri-monthly. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

 

It used to go back to 1950 but at this moment it only goes back to Jan 1982. Enjoy!

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My coworker and I will be working on a local winter outlook in November, but our preliminary thoughts are leaning toward the warm side of average and drier than average, considering local strong Niño climo and recent tendencies with the current episode. Snowfall is a big wild card because all it takes is 1 big one to get to near or above average (see Superbowl storm 2015) but will still likely lean to less snow than avg during met winter.

 

 

That would be how I would hedge my bets too. Last year proved it only takes one whopper storm to push you near to above normal. Without it here last year would have been a clunker, but we got 16.7" with that storm to push us to 47.5" on the year.

 

it's absolutely the correct call

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All-timer, epic strong nino is a lock at this point, this is going to be fun

 

 

Recent CFS runs have gotten a bit more bullish with the 3.4 peak. 

 

I continue to think it's more likely than not that we will get a trimonthly peak in excess of 2.0.  Less confident that the peak trimonthly reading from 1997-98 will be knocked off.  No matter what, epic Nino as you said.

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That would be how I would hedge my bets too. Last year proved it only takes one whopper storm to push you near to above normal. Without it here last year would have been a clunker, but we got 16.7" with that storm to push us to 47.5" on the year.

The 2013-14 winter, which I can't say enough about, was historic in the sense that I don't think we ever see a winter like that again (combination of snowfall + snow depth + cold + wind). It was an epic winter and everyone knew it. But 2014-15 was different...more of an optical illusion numbers wise. With the landscape buried in unusually deep snow for so long, almost seemed hard to believe winter was only +5". Tell me we would get a storm of 16.7" & finish just +5", especially the way weve been breaking sowfall records, i might not have believed it. But thats what you get in a dry, tundra like winter.

My thing is snowpack, & I know how good I've had it the last 2 years. That kind of deep long lasting snowpack is simply not going to happen a 3rd consecutive winter. But for those into storms, I can actually see a better winter for snowstorms this year. With the usual volatile nino pattern and a juiced jet, we could be digging out several times (& some could also be playing a few rounds of winter golf).

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The black cloud hanging over seasonal predictions. That is what i am calling it.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n10/full/ngeo2517.html

 

Will be interesting to see how that added forcing deals with a strong nino? Which will win the battle or will it just equal something new?

 

Anyone who thinks they know doesn't because we have no history to go by.

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The black cloud hanging over seasonal predictions. That is what i am calling it.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n10/full/ngeo2517.html

 

Will be interesting to see how that added forcing deals with a strong nino? Which will win the battle or will it just equal something new?

 

Anyone who thinks they know doesn't because we have no history to go by.

Yes, analog-based forecasting has started to take a beating in the last 10 years or so. CC was already changing the background conditions before then, but it's starting to bite harder recently.

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Yep, just takes one big dog to skew the number for a season. We are going to be playing the "which side of the low" and "where is the cold air" game all winter.

Overall I would say the Great Lakes are the least susceptible to this though, because of our frequency and nickel and dimes. Pretty much any given region can have a big dog impact season totals.
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NASA has updated for October. Continues to show it getting progressively colder. Time sensitive links.

 

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

 

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

 

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season4.png

 

 

Exact anomalies aside, that type of progression (getting colder with time, or less warm relative to average) makes sense especially as the Nino will be on the decline the farther we move into winter. 

 

If by some chance December comes in cold/snowy, it would be a big tip off about the character of the winter imo.

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We had Jon Davis from Earth Risk speak at our Chicago-CoD joint AMS meeting last night. Some good stuff.

 

He thinks the pattern flips to cold here next month and also think the warm pool of SST's we've seen in the NPAC the last few winters will hold into and through the winter ( mentioned even with the hit they've taken the last 1-2 weeks....thinks they warm again)

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