dta1984 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 The great Lakes temper heat waves, cold waves, & bring excessive cloudiness to this side of the Lake. There is quite a north to south gradient from southern MI to southern OH. Ya there is an extreme gradient in just Ohio as well as the NE section is in a prime lake effect belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 While it certainly hasn't been the case during the last few severe winters, I can remember many times in years past where the gradient from Detroit to Toledo can be crazy. Surprisingly, 2013-14 had 3 severe events here while 2014-15 had 0. That's one thing I enjoyed about that winter... it was active as hell, not only in clippers, but in the big warm frontal systems. As has been discussed earlier, there was no big snow event in 2013-14... but there were plenty of big rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 The OV does have a surprising big-snowstorm climo though. I know Louisville has had a few large snowstorms over the last 25 years or so. Obviously it's not as good as areas further northwest but it's better than one would expect given the average yearly snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 The OV does have a surprising big-snowstorm climo though. I know Louisville has had a few large snowstorms over the last 25 years or so. Obviously it's not as good as areas further northwest but it's better than one would expect given the average yearly snow totals. The OV certainly showed its hand in terms of producing big snows this past winter. Seems like there were two weeks were they were in the perfect zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 The OV does have a surprising big-snowstorm climo though. I know Louisville has had a few large snowstorms over the last 25 years or so. Obviously it's not as good as areas further northwest but it's better than one would expect given the average yearly snow totals. We've definitely had our share of big snow events that drop totals close to our annual average snowfall... but I don't remember getting one foot of snow from a single system in all of my 22 years. I know we got ~18" in 1998, but I was too young to remember that. The Blizzard of 78 is synonymous to the 74 Super Outbreak in terms of legendary events around here. Anyone who grew up here and is over the age of 45 (and doesn't have alzheimers) remembers those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We've definitely had our share of big snow events that drop totals close to our annual average snowfall... but I don't remember getting one foot of snow from a single system in all of my 22 years. I know we got ~18" in 1998, but I was too young to remember that. The Blizzard of 78 is synonymous to the 74 Super Outbreak in terms of legendary events around here. Anyone who grew up here and is over the age of 45 (and doesn't have alzheimers) remembers those days. How about Christmas 2004 or even March 08? I think the 08 event fell short of 10" or so, but seems 04 had some impressive totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 How about Christmas 2004 or even March 08? I think the 08 event fell short of 10" or so, but seems 04 had some impressive totals. According to ILN's LCD (not the drug), CVG recorded 6.8" + 2.6". Close but no cigar. We got 3 events in 1 week this February that totaled 16.7"... but the deepest depth I measured was ~10". It was pretty fun... but then it got cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Oh snap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 ENSO precip index was a colossal +3.45 for July. It can sometimes be a leading indicator for Nino 3.4. That latest EKW is a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 i kind of miss those 36 hour heavy stratiform rain events, it has been a while October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 From the non-scientific, wooly-worm method of forecasting... Acorn production on the oaks is ridiculously unusually high, and the both the Farmers Almanac & Old Farmers Almanac are predicting yet another cold, snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 I like that they always have 3-4 different ways of saying "snowy and cold" Also #OrangeIsTheTrueNAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2015 Author Share Posted August 30, 2015 I like that they always have 3-4 different ways of saying "snowy and cold" Had the same thought lol. I think it said frigid last winter as well (or maybe it was bitter) but I can't keep these almanacs straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Had the same thought lol. I think it said frigid last winter as well (or maybe it was bitter) but I can't keep these almanacs straight. Here's the last two winter outlook by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Here's the last two winter outlook by them. If you forecast "cold temperatures and snow" for winter your forecast is bound to verify. People who actually take the Almanac long range outlooks seriously will remember that one week of cold weather or that one 12" snowfall, and they will be happy with the "verified" forecast, even if the rest of the winter is warmer than normal and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2015 Author Share Posted August 30, 2015 Here's the last two winter outlook by them. Stinging. That's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2015 Author Share Posted August 30, 2015 I'm trying to imagine wet in the Pac NW and dry in the SW. That seems like it wouldn't be easy to pull off in such a strong Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Here's the last two winter outlook by them. Those were definitely meant to be taken with a grain of salt, but I have seen them forecast mild winters before. The last two did verify lol. Hat trick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 I'm trying to imagine wet in the Pac NW and dry in the SW. That seems like it wouldn't be easy to pull off in such a strong Nino. Yeah, I know really! For California and Nevada's sake, I hope that dry and mild forecast fails. Those were definitely meant to be taken with a grain of salt, but I have seen them forecast mild winters before. The last two did verify lol. Hat trick? They just change adjectives each winter. Now in 2013, they just used straight forward wording. They probably figure they'll get people attention if they use words like frigid and stinging, lol! Frigid and flaky for the northern Rockies and Plains - that was pretty good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 If you forecast "cold temperatures and snow" for winter your forecast is bound to verify. People who actually take the Almanac long range outlooks seriously will remember that one week of cold weather or that one 12" snowfall, and they will be happy with the "verified" forecast, even if the rest of the winter is warmer than normal and rainy. They probably figure they'll get people attention if they use words like frigid and stinging, lol! Frigid and flaky for the northern Rockies and Plains - that was pretty good! It's a smart strategy, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Aren't their methods supposedly super secret or something? Or was that the other almanac? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 It's a smart strategy, really.I disagree. While the wording is corny, that implies winter will be colder and snowier than normal (and again, corny graphics aside it states it in their summary that it will be snowier than normal). Any winter will have cold and snowy days in this area, but say we had a winter with 20" of snow..do you honestly think someone would say, hey the almanac was right, it snowed? . On the other hand, if they predicted a mild winter with less snow, I don't think a brutal winter buried in snow that featured a few Feb days thawing in the 40s would have someone say hey, the gutters are dripping and I don't need my heavy coat today, the almanac was right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 Hope something like this doesn't verify. Ready for a milder winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 Euro seasonal output has a pretty favorable look in the north Pac for winter fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Hope something like this doesn't verify. Ready for a milder winter. That is beautiful. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Suicidebooth.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 That is beautiful. Sent from my iPhone If you like cold/dry winters, yes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Most El Nino's are favorable looking. The opposite is true actually for winter fans. They usually feature warmer temps and less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 The GEOS5 and CMC2 both have +3C SST anomalies stretching to and even west of the equatorial dateline. That seems quite extreme (not to mention unprecedented) and is part of the reason why they go ridiculous with the cold. None of the remaining model runs do that and all of those show a wall-to-wall torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 The monthly CFSv2 is one big torch for most of the sub forum. (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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