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Winter 2015-16 Discussion

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
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So... Super Nino analogs say warm winter for lakes. Strong July AO analogs say heavy duty -AO NDJ with requisite blocking which portends very cold lakes, as well no sign of cooling GOA which portends cold lakes, so the cards say cold winter. With this particular hand I just don't see how we are going to have any certainty until we get into October and see where we stand. Either way I think we are an for an interesting winter, going to be fun to sit back and watch and discuss, whatever happens. We seem to be in the age of extremes. Extremes are at least fun for a weather enthusiast. We live in interesting times (meteorologically speaking)

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Looking back at 1997-98, the AO averaged negative for the winter, and was deeply negative at times, down to about -4 on 1/10. The NAO averaged neutral to negative and the PNA averaged positive. So I'm not sure Arctic and North Atlantic blocking tendency will be the biggest factor. As everyone has been suggesting, the evolution of the northeast Pacific warm pool and whether there can be a predominantly - EPO will be key. 500 mb anomalies show that the EPO was strongly positive in 97-98, which enabled the record Niño to flood the northern tier with warmth despite the other favorable factors for cold. Even if there's a tendency for AK ridging this winter, I'd still bank on a less cold outcome than the previous 2 winters because of the strong basin wide Niño.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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Looking back at 1997-98, the AO averaged negative for the winter, and was deeply negative at times, down to about -4 on 1/10. The NAO averaged neutral to negative and the PNA averaged positive. So I'm not sure Arctic and North Atlantic blocking tendency will be the biggest factor. As everyone has been suggesting, the evolution of the northeast Pacific warm pool and whether there can be a predominantly - EPO will be key. 500 mb anomalies show that the EPO was strongly positive in 97-98, which enabled the record Niño to flood the northern tier with warmth despite the other favorable factors for cold. Even if there's a tendency for AK ridging this winter, I'd still bank on a less cold outcome than the previous 2 winters because of the strong basin wide Niño.

The last two winters were very (wonderfully) unusual. I wouldnt bank on another that extreme even if there was no nino!

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

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The last two winters were very (wonderfully) unusual. I wouldnt bank on another that extreme even if there was no nino!

That's a good point. I was gonna add, not saying much to be warmer and less snowy than the previous 2 winters, but how much warmer will likely hinge on the EPO.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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That's a good point. I was gonna add, not saying much to be warmer and less snowy than the previous 2 winters, but how much warmer will likely hinge on the EPO.

At Detroit, 2013-14 was the 8th coldest winter on record, 4th coldest Nov-Mar on record (coldest since 1911-12), & not only the snowiest winter on record (94.9")but also blew away any other winter for snow depth. I stated numerous times that we will never see another all around winter like that probably ever :lol:

2014-15 was certainly not as dramatic, but STILL cracked the top 20 coldest winters despite a mild December. For comparison, before 2013 the last winter in the top 20 coldest was 1981-82. Snowfall was not nearly as extreme but thanks to the massive storm on Feb 1st and the coldest Feb in 140 years, snow depth once again WAS extreme. We have been in a stretch of unusually snowy winters for over a decade now, but the cold and snow depth of the last two has been a shocker.

I am WELL prepared that winter will not be like that this year. I also have let others (who frantically ask me if these are the new winters) know every year won't be like that. Just PLEASE anything but a 1982-83 redux. Remember that not only was a mild, snowless winter, it was a rainy, snowy, cold and nonexistent spring as well!

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ClicheVortex2014

ClicheVortex2014

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This was posted over on Accuweather's forums... here's JB's latest:

 

 "I like what I am seeing relative to our ideas of another big snow winter for much of the nation, though more in the south and east than in the northern tier of states. But the ECMWF continues to show the major ridge over NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL CANADA, NOT SOUTHEAST CANADA. It continues to show the ENSO 3.4 warmer than 1.2 and a much broader warm water pool off the west coast, not being sliced into from the west. The big problem will be California rain as the ECMWF is suggesting alot of dryness central and north. It has lower than normal pressures from the gulf up the east coast and above normal precip through the south and the east. If I were to score it in analog weight, I would have 86-87 first, 09-10 second, 57-58 3rd. a blend of 97-98,82-83,72-73 would come in 4th as one must respect the analog to previous super ninos, but again this has a very different look overall."

 

 

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stadiumwave

stadiumwave

Posted
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09-10? Doesn't even belong on that list. That's friggin laughable.

 

Don't count on the NPAC saving us either. Nino forcing is through the roof and 3 months is a long damn time for that to extraordinarily warm SST pattern to change.

 

 

The N. Pacific warmth does not have to remain to save winter.  That needs to be kept in mind.  Speaking of 2009-10, there was a very warm pool of water in the GOA but a -PDO....but by DEC the whole GOA was colder than crap, but it was a great winter.

 

The warm anomalies per say is not the biggest issue...the strenght & LOCATION of the Aleutian low will be what determines where the placement of the warm pacific air will flood N. America. If it's where the Euro Seasonal has shown the last 2 runs then we could be fine.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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The N. Pacific warmth does not have to remain to save winter. That needs to be kept in mind. Speaking of 2009-10, there was a very warm pool of water in the GOA but a -PDO....but by DEC the whole GOA was colder than crap, but it was a great winter.

The warm anomalies per say is not the biggest issue...the strenght & LOCATION of the Aleutian low will be what determines where the placement of the warm pacific air will flood N. America. If it's where the Euro Seasonal has shown the last 2 runs then we could be fine.

You gonna count on arctic blocking along the lines of 09-10? I don't think I would. If we lose the NPAC warm pool, it's gonna make me pretty bearish about winter.

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Stebo

Stebo

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You gonna count on arctic blocking along the lines of 09-10? I don't think I would. If we lose the NPAC warm pool, it's gonna make me pretty bearish about winter.

The PDO has been trending cooler week to week, it has just been so warm that it still has a way to go to a -PDO
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stadiumwave

stadiumwave

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You gonna count on arctic blocking along the lines of 09-10? I don't think I would. If we lose the NPAC warm pool, it's gonna make me pretty bearish about winter.

 

 

Totally agree!  I don't know if we'll ever see blocking along those lines but it doesn't have to be that strong at all. Read carefully what I posted...I mentioned that the location of the Aleutian low is key.  If it's further west as some guidance suggests then it would cause a +PNA ridge & even with a little transient -NAO, if the location of the block is good we could have decent periods of winter.

 

I think it's really elementary to think every strong Nino will equal a blowtorch winter (paging Eric Webb :whistle: )  Could it...yes. But we only have good records of two super Nino's 82-83 & 97-98...that's just too small of a sample to have cookie cutter predictions.  Besides that the global state is not the same...SST's & ocean oscillations...throw in lower ARCTIC SEA ICE to boot.

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stadiumwave

stadiumwave

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The PDO has been trending cooler week to week, it has just been so warm that it still has a way to go to a -PDO

 

It actually fell for several months but came up in June & July.  Not that it matters because I think we all expect it to fall but....Here's NCDC's raw numbers...which are calculated a little different than JISAO but it shows the increase also.

201412 1.91 201501 1.73 201502 1.54 201503 1.33 201504 0.88 201505 0.29 201506 0.70 201507 1.23                          

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Will be interesting to see if this ends up a fairly active Fall severe season for the subforum. The 02-03 Niño had the Veteran's Day outbreak.

I thought there was more of a correlation with neutral years, but I could be mistaken. Fall 1965 was active, and had a strong Nino.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

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I thought there was more of a correlation with neutral years, but I could be mistaken. Fall 1965 was active, and had a strong Nino.

Here's the December portion of the 1982 tornado season entry on Wikipedia:

'There were 96 tornadoes confirmed in the US in December, resulting in seven fatalities. Four were killed by tornadoes in Illinois and Arkansas. On December 24, three more were killed in Arkansas and Missouri. One tornado on Christmas Eve was rated F4 that traveled from Arkansas to Missouri. At the time, the number of tornadoes in the month vastly exceeded the previous record of 61 set in 1967. Arkansas and Missouri both experienced the highest number of December tornadoes on record, with 46 and 30 touching down in the respective states. This value was later eclipsed in 2002 when 97 tornadoes were confirmed.'

Not sure if there's a bit of a pattern here, but interesting to have the 1982-83 Niño, one of the strongest on record, 1965 which you mentioned and 2002-03 with some very notable events in the cool season. Was chatting about this topic with tornadotony and he's thinking the TN Valley at least will be under the gun in the fall severe season.

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Stebo

Stebo

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Some cooler waters upwelling off of Ecuador and Peru as of late. Could be looking at a Modoki El Niño autumn/winter.

 

sstanim.gif

The anomolies are still high along the coast though. It might just be a seasonal effect of a slight cooling there considering we are in winter in the Southern Hemisphere

 

sstaanim.gif

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Stebo

Stebo

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I'm not really into the long range forecasting like many of you guys, but I appreciate all the discussion in this thread from everyone. So basically, the consensus is we may have a 2-3 part complaint/banter thread series this winter based on what I'm reading lol.

5 parter easy.
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