Hoosier Posted October 17, 2015 Author Share Posted October 17, 2015 ALL strong El Ninos since 1895: ALL moderate El Ninos since 1895 ALL weak El Ninos since 1895 The strong Nino composite with some tweaks is what I'd go with at this point. Waiting to see how things evolve over the next couple weeks or so but I'm currently leaning toward a cooler winter than the super Ninos of 82-83 and 97-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 The strong Nino composite with some tweaks is what I'd go with at this point. Waiting to see how things evolve over the next couple weeks or so but I'm currently leaning toward a cooler winter than the super Ninos of 82-83 and 97-98. I hate this lets start at 1950 crap that so much enso stuff entails. Its already a painfully small sample size...why make it smaller? Its interesting that while the strong Nino composite is the strongest signal for a milder winter (mod and weak show cold winters), its actually the least signal for a dry winter compared to mod/weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2015 Author Share Posted October 17, 2015 I hate this lets start at 1950 crap that so much enso stuff entails. Its already a painfully small sample size...why make it smaller? Its interesting that while the strong Nino composite is the strongest signal for a milder winter (mod and weak show cold winters), its actually the least signal for a dry winter compared to mod/weak. That goes to what I posted a couple days ago...there are some strong Ninos that haven't been that dry. A couple very moist systems in the winter can make or break the overall precip anomalies especially as winter precip averages are lower than other times of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 That goes to what I posted a couple days ago...there are some strong Ninos that haven't been that dry. A couple very moist systems in the winter can make or break the overall precip anomalies especially as winter precip averages are lower than other times of year. It's definitely different than the other super strong Ninos. I'm leaning towards slightly above normal temperatures with near normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I hate this lets start at 1950 crap that so much enso stuff entails. Its already a painfully small sample size... Let's be honest, the only reason you don't like it is because it doesn't show a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 To be honest, I'm just glad winter is around the corner and get to track winter storms, regardless of what happens, it's just going to be awesome to use this super Nino data for future use. we should all be thankful we got to experience a winter like 2013-14 which was IMO about as severe and snowy as we are going to see in our sub, in fact that winter was pretty much epic, and rivaled the severe winter of 1917-1918, and the late 70s. The snow depth, the snow cover, the relentless strike of winter storms almost weekly, and the 2 month cold wave, that gripped the Midwest, was just insane. Going to feel like an old timer telling my boy someday about that winter. It was truly incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 One day Siberian snow cover explosion:Yesterday:Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 It is weird that the first 2 months of fall have been this mild in a strong+ El Nino. 1965 and 1940 are 2 that weren't cold either. A big reason 1966 gets ignored historically a bit because outside the 2nd half of January and a week long dipper in February, that was all the cold it had. March was pretty mild. That said, put the Triple Phaser over Akron, I'd be good with that winter!!!!! I suspect a large reason why strong El Nino's don't produce cold departure winters is because of the big tropical forcing in the pacific. It just never stays steady enough to lock a pattern in. That is why I think analogs like 2002-3 are stupid. That was a classic low end moderate el nino that faded through the winter enough to lock in a good PAC pattern for January/February. This is gonna need a Atlantic bailout I suspect. This is not a typical strong El Nino...it's a hybrid. That's why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Let's be honest, the only reason you don't like it is because it doesn't show a cold winter. Nope. Cold winter doesnt guarantee snowy, and mild doesnt guarentee low snow. I dont like it because I think its ridiculous to take FIVE years and call something "climo". So we are going to take FIVE years and develop a "climo" off of that? And fwiw, those 5 years had 5 COMPLETELY different types of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 YUCK...1st of NOV pattern by guidance...I know I've seen that pattern, which looks awful, at the beginning of another El Nino NOV:Oh...here it is...1st week of NOV, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Nope. Cold winter doesnt guarantee snowy, and mild doesnt guarentee low snow. I dont like it because I think its ridiculous to take FIVE years and call something "climo". So we are going to take FIVE years and develop a "climo" off of that? And fwiw, those 5 years had 5 COMPLETELY different types of winters.LolSent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Lol Sent from my XT1563 I agree. Lol at picking and choosing which ninos to include and which to exclude to make maps, forecasts, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I agree. Lol at picking and choosing which ninos to include and which to exclude to make maps, forecasts, etc. Why not just use the most recent five strong el nino winters (and most accurately documented) that have occurred over a period of 65 years? We aren't the ones manipulating data here by adding el nino winters that occurred a long time ago and might be inaccurately documented. I like keeping it simple with facts.EDIT: And I agree, every el nino winter is different. But facts cannot be changed or manipulated. Most el nino winters are warmer than normal and less snowy than normal for our region. Sent from my XT1563 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Why not just use the most recent five strong el nino winters (and most accurately documented) that have occurred over a period of 65 years? We aren't the ones manipulating data here by adding el nino winters that occurred a long time ago and might be inaccurately documented. I like keeping it simple with facts. EDIT: And I agree, every el nino winter is different. But facts cannot be changed or manipulated. Most el nino winters are warmer than normal and less snowy than normal for our region. Sent from my XT1563 Facts cannot be changed, I agree 100%. Ive posted many of them in this thread myself. I do disagree about manipulation, I see a lot of "pick and choose" the data on the forums. Speaking of facts, "most El Ninos" are not warmer than normal and less snowy than normal in the region, when you include Ninos of all strengths. But this is a strong one, and yes, average out all strong Ninos and the end result will be milder/drier than normal, I never said otherwise. I dont agree with the pre-1950 El Ninos are no good because they arent recent argument, but if we want to play the "whats been happening lately" game, that would be even better for snow lovers in our region, because snowfall has been running above avg nearly every year lately. Want to use the 5 most recent strong Ninos? Fine, more power to you. Only 3 of the 5 were warmer than normal, only 3 of the 5 had less snow than normal here, and all 5 winters were completely different from each other.We are so overdue for a mild, low snow winter it isnt funny, and Im prepared for one. I have never once called for a cold/snowy winter, never once offered a forecast. But for some reason, the Lakes forum tends to be the opposite of the New England forum when it comes to forecast discussions, even though majority of us on here like snow. Heaven forbid you arent on the 1982-83/1997-98 bandwagon. Whats even scarier is that both sides of the argument (those pining for a mild winter, those pining for cold) have shown some very interesting data/thoughts that are backed up and make a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 A sample size of 5 is not a large sample size...no matter what the results show or will be this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 A sample size of 5 is not a large sample size...no matter what the results show or will be this winter. Exactly. If we are going small sample size, then I say northwest flow, nickel and dime, cold, all winter long. Obviously, that forecast has zero scientific backing, but I cannot stand the manipulation of data to make wish casts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Exactly. If we are going small sample size, then I say northwest flow, nickel and dime, cold, all winter long. Obviously, that forecast has zero scientific backing, but I cannot stand the manipulation of data to make wish casts. Yeah...I mean it's fine to use it...just weight it appropriately. I understand it is very difficult to generate longer range forecasts and you need to use whatever data is available...but within reasonRC outlined a lot of key factors...which is why he is a pro...and we are very lucky to have him chime in when time allows for him to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Yeah...I mean it's fine to use it...just weight it appropriately. I understand it is very difficult to generate longer range forecasts and you need to use whatever data is available...but within reason RC outlined a lot of key factors...which is why he is a pro...and we are very lucky to have him chime in when time allows for him to do so. I am fine with a strong Nino climo, which as Hoosier has shown is not usually dry but warm. Just takes one time of being on the left side of the low to get a nice big dog. Will certainly prefer a little more variability than northwest flow, cold, dry, occasional nuciance snow. Just my humble opinion, give us a big dog (10"+) right before Christmas, and then be random the rest of the season. (Especially with my broken back, won't be able to shovel or really run my snowblower). #frontloadedwinterftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 With the small sample size of the recent past El Nino events. Plus the current impressive winter weather pattern if the last 8 years. I would be shocked if this winter turned into anything but a Hybrid. ... When climatology rules are broken early in the season without comparable data sets one must wonder what other surprises are in store for the upcoming weather patterns. As a snow contractor I am prepared for a snow drought as historicaly this is not the best case scenario. My gut tells me to be fully prepared for a crazy winter of unique patterns and lots of fun watching it all unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 With the small sample size of the recent past El Nino events. Plus the current impressive winter weather pattern if the last 8 years. I would be shocked if this winter turned into anything but a Hybrid. ... When climatology rules are broken early in the season without comparable data sets one must wonder what other surprises are in store for the upcoming weather patterns. As a snow contractor I am prepared for a snow drought as historicaly this is not the best case scenario. My gut tells me to be fully prepared for a crazy winter of unique patterns and lots of fun watching it all unfold. Yes, this makes me a little nervous. There's a growing chance that we see the warmest strong Nino fall that we've seen. And it's not a case of one ridiculously warm month skewing things with a couple colder months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I just want a white Christmas. It's been since 2010, that we had one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 This. It's been a while since we've seen a front loaded winter. I'll be happy to not have a long drawn out miserable Feb & March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Why not just use the most recent five strong el nino winters (and most accurately documented) that have occurred over a period of 65 years? We aren't the ones manipulating data here by adding el nino winters that occurred a long time ago and might be inaccurately documented. I like keeping it simple with facts.EDIT: And I agree, every el nino winter is different. But facts cannot be changed or manipulated. Most el nino winters are warmer than normal and less snowy than normal for our region.Sent from my XT1563 Unfortunately you were not around but we had this discussion AT LENGTH back over on Eastern in 2006 and again in 2009. It is not as simple as that! 09-10 ( i called while most others were riding the nino climo crap.. See the Northern Plains) and more so 72-73 did not happen by mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Unfortunately you were not around but we had this discussion AT LENGTH back over on Eastern in 2006 and again in 2009. It is not as simple as that! 09-10 ( i called while most others were riding the nino climo crap.. See the Northern Plains) and more so 72-73 did not happen by mistake.2009-10 was a moderate el nino, not a strong one. Nine times out of ten climo will prevail.Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Exactly. If we are going small sample size, then I say northwest flow, nickel and dime, cold, all winter long. Obviously, that forecast has zero scientific backing, but I cannot stand the manipulation of data to make wish casts. Calling for anything but a warmer than normal winter is wishcasting at this point.Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 2009-10 was a moderate el nino, not a strong one. Nine times out of ten climo will prevail. Sent from my XT1563 Point IS everyone rode the NINO CLIMO. It failed. It FAILED in 72-73 which was also a STRONG NINO. Look beyond the Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Calling for anything but a warmer than normal winter is wishcasting at this point. Sent from my XT1563 No.. What you are doing is wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Point IS everyone rode the NINO CLIMO. It failed. It FAILED in 72-73 which was also a STRONG NINO. Look beyond the Nino. I'm not going to completely disregard the most influential and important factor in what will happen this winter. You're the one wishcasting here by completely ignoring the strong el nino winter climo in favor of your cold weather agenda. Get a gripSent from my XT1563 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I'm not going to completely disregard the most influential and important factor in what will happen this winter. You're the one wishcasting here by completely ignoring the strong el nino winter climo in favor of your cold weather agenda. Get a grip Sent from my XT1563 LOL... What a weenie! Says the guy with a warm agenda and ZERO to back him up other then Nino this, nino that. . Oh and i dont recall where i said it would be warm or cold.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Well I was going to agree with CanadianGuy that some are trying to wish this into a cold winter but I will refrain from cussing needlessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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