Hoosier Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Big difference between 2002 and now is the extend of the warm waters west of Mexico and the West Coast. That cold pool south of the Aleutians isn't there either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Here's 1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Their is still alot changing to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Another winter outlook. http://flxweather.com/2015-2016-finger-lakes-winter-forecast/ The enso comparison is almost embarrassing. I'm guessing 2002 was a good winter for where this guy is from. But it's not even close in any way. And the sub surface shows warming isn't done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Looks like CANsips got straightened out. Interesting look vs CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 2015.gif 2002.gif SST for the latest map is interesting to how the heat anomalies are so linear and vector like. . NTM how hot the entire Pacific is in relation to other El Nino years. So, if we were to ignore the SST El Nino section of the winter forecast and concentrate just on the warm weather patterns of this fall. I wonder what direction it would lead us? My theory is if the El Nino is acting so unpredictable now who's to say it will follow the normal status quo. Is there a bigger factor steering our weather as of late. How is the Siberian snow growth been over the past few weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 From the NY Metro forum. Pretty interesting stuff. el nino Novembers before our snowiest el nino winters...Novembers before our least snowiest el nino winters... Attached Images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 SST for the latest map is interesting to how the heat anomalies are so linear and vector like. . NTM how hot the entire Pacific is in relation to other El Nino years. So, if we were to ignore the SST El Nino section of the winter forecast and concentrate just on the warm weather patterns of this fall. I wonder what direction it would lead us? My theory is if the El Nino is acting so unpredictable now who's to say it will follow the normal status quo. Is there a bigger factor steering our weather as of late. How is the Siberian snow growth been over the past few weeks? Running above normal. Highest snow cover extent out of the last couple Octobers. http://nsidc.org/soac/snow-cover.html#snowcover 10/31/15 10/31/14 10/31/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 From the NY Metro forum. Pretty interesting stuff. el nino Novembers before our snowiest el nino winters...Novembers before our least snowiest el nino winters... Attached Images Thanks for sharing those maps. They do tell a lot. Except for west of the continental divide, the first week of the month will have a large positive anomaly over the remainder of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Like the '02 Nino? Bwahahaha.... That's a good one. I can say one thing, if that Pac jet stays like this, there's going to be a lot of dead ratters being handed out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I'll take this jet pattern in winter all day long, though I don't expect it to stay this way into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I'll take this jet pattern in winter all day long, though I don't expect it to stay this way into winter.A good point. We are far enough north that even those with unrealistic wishcasts of record warmth this winter fail to realize that no matter what they do, there will at minimim be some winter this year, & a juiced jet can produce some great winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 After a cold & dry winter here, I am rooting on variability. The last two winters have had a lot of long, inactive periods. I'll take winter rain storms over bone dry piercing wind any day (then again, I never would have said that after 2011-2012). I just couldn't tolerate how last winter had so much weather downtime. Waiting for weeks for one storm, only to have it miss you to the south, and then having to wait weeks for the next one... it's boring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 After a cold & dry winter here, I am rooting on variability. The last two winters have had a lot of long, inactive periods. I'll take winter rain storms over bone dry piercing wind any day (then again, I never would have said that after 2011-2012). I just couldn't tolerate how last winter had so much weather downtime. Waiting for weeks for one storm, only to have it miss you to the south, and then having to wait weeks for the next one... it's boring! I can't think of any inactive periods in 2013-14. At least here. I can't remember a more active, perfect winter. (2007-08 was very active but was no 2013-14 in terms of being "the perfect winter"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 A good point. We are far enough north that even those with unrealistic wishcasts of record warmth this winter fail to realize that no matter what they do, there will at minimim be some winter this year, & a juiced jet can produce some great winter storms. Did someone forecast record warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 2009-2010 was an absolutely awful winter in the Toronto area - one of the driest and most snow free on record. I recall there was also a very strong AO that year which led to Labrador torching while the Mid-Atlantic had a snow and cold bonanza. Solid Modoki el Nino + low GLAAM state + east QBO + 100 year solar min led to record obliterating -AO values. I wouldn't worry about that happening again anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Did someone forecast record warmth? I was about to ask the same question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Did someone forecast record warmth? I was about to ask the same question... Yeah most of the forecast I have seen were slightly above normal for the winter with Feb being below normal. I haven't seen one forecast calling for full on blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 Yeah most of the forecast I have seen were slightly above normal for the winter with Feb being below normal. I haven't seen one forecast calling for full on blowtorch. Me either, which is actually surprising as I figured somebody would've gone all in with a torch by now. There's been posting of strong/super Nino composite maps, but as far as people who have actually taken the time to make a forecast, I can't think of anyone who has gone super warm for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Me either, which is actually surprising as I figured somebody would've gone all in with a torch by now. There's been posting of strong/super Nino composite maps, but as far as people who have actually taken the time to make a forecast, I can't think of anyone who has gone super warm for the region. Yeah the only places where I have seen people go full tilt on the warmth is the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Solid Modoki el Nino + low GLAAM state + east QBO + 100 year solar min led to record obliterating -AO values. I wouldn't worry about that happening again anytime soon Good to know, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Did someone forecast record warmth? Actually Roger Smith's winter forecast has a toasty crunch to it. Talks about sporadic bouts of record warmth up to Feb at which time it could cool down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I can't think of any inactive periods in 2013-14. At least here. I can't remember a more active, perfect winter. (2007-08 was very active but was no 2013-14 in terms of being "the perfect winter"). It was okay here. Snow cover longevity was the big story really. No 12"+ snow storms that winter (haven't had one here since Feb 2013). We had only one snow storm between Jan 6 and Feb 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 Actually Roger Smith's winter forecast has a toasty crunch to it. Talks about sporadic bouts of record warmth up to Feb at which time it could cool down a bit. Found it My outlook calls for exceptional warmth in many parts of central and eastern North America for the first half of the winter, fading slowly to a near normal February in those regions and possibly a colder than average March. The far west will be generally very mild, as will almost all parts of western Canada. During spells of exceptional warmth, record high temperatures may occur and these may even threaten monthly records, not just daily records. A good analogue may be the winter of 1905-06, temperatures peaked in some eastern states near 75-80 F around Jan 22nd (1906) in that winter. The analogue of 1982-83 also factors in here, although its greatest anomalies came in December 1982. Obviously this would not be much of a winter for snowfall yet the changeover to more seasonable and then cold conditions in the last third of winter might allow for one or two decent east coast snowstorms and an eventual regime with more frequent snow cover than bare ground in the Great Lakes and Midwest, but I believe the main story of the winter will be the exceptional warmth. My reasons are generally related to the large-scale factors extensively discussed in other forecasts already posted, I am probably just adding a few climatological details to a general picture which is emerging from those other forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Did someone forecast record warmth? I have seen forecasts for EVERYTHING. I have NEVER seen a year where there were more mixed signals/mixed winter forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Me either, which is actually surprising as I figured somebody would've gone all in with a torch by now. There's been posting of strong/super Nino composite maps, but as far as people who have actually taken the time to make a forecast, I can't think of anyone who has gone super warm for the region. Who posted the dragon breathing on the word El Nino and said something about record warm? Honestly all the forecasts are a blur. I browse the NE forum as well as the main forum, and I have seen ALL kinds of winter forecasts and "suggestions" (from those who dont make full blown outlooks). Maybe "suggestions" would be a better word than "forecasts". I have seen several who have a very strong opinion of what this winter will bring, and some get very offended when someone goes the other way. The NE forum especially is an interesting read. It appears there would be some vague consensus that Dec is likely to be the warmest month of winter and Feb the coldest, but that does not mean it will be a snowless Dec nor that Feb will be anything like the last few Febs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Who posted the dragon breathing on the word El Nino and said something about record warm? Honestly all the forecasts are a blur. I browse the NE forum as well as the main forum, and I have seen ALL kinds of winter forecasts and "suggestions" (from those who dont make full blown outlooks). Maybe "suggestions" would be a better word than "forecasts". I have seen several who have a very strong opinion of what this winter will bring, and some get very offended when someone goes the other way. The NE forum especially is an interesting read. It appears there would be some vague consensus that Dec is likely to be the warmest month of winter and Feb the coldest, but that does not mean it will be a snowless Dec nor that Feb will be anything like the last few Febs. That's kind of what I would guess as well. Makes sense given that el Niño will be strongest early in winter. Something unexpected could occur and we end up with a front loaded winter somehow. Hard to go against a snowy February; that's been the rule the last decade, rather than the exception. Warmest forecasts I have seen have come from the northern Plains. I haven't seen anything close to what happened during the 11-12 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 That was the teaser graphic for one of the local Rockford, IL news stations winter outlook. The graphic implied a torch but I didn't actually watch their "special" to see what they were outlooking. I just google news'd "record warm winter", there are some forecasts out there. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-canada-winter-forecast-record-warmth/53084188 http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2015/11/warm_novembers_often_point_to.html http://www.washtenawvoice.com/2015/10/05/el-nino-expected-to-warm-up-winter-weather/ http://pamplinmedia.com/pt/9-news/278488-153397-forecasters-see-another-warm-winter-ahead Just a small example of some of the drivel out there. There are many good, scientific forecasts out there that have included plenty of time & thought to the forecasts. The best are the ones that not only include plenty of ideas, graphs etc for their forecast, but also a margin of error of what could go wrong. Then theres the ones that simply say "it will be warm because of el nino" then post some mush. Or the ones that say "it will be (warm/cold) because of (insert stats youve tailored to fit your forecast). I love the scientific Cleveland article linking 70F days in Nov & warmer than normal Novembers to warm winters. At Detroit, of the 20 warmest Novembers, 9 of the 20 winters were colder than normal...but of all Novembers that saw 70F+ days, 21 of the 35 winters were colder than normal. One things for sure, in spring, there will be a few winners and many losers to the grading of winter 2015-16 forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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