Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[stadiumwave]

Well I'm sure you seen the CFS for Dec, if that is how we start this winter, it is going to take a bit to get back to even near normal.

 

 

Not really.  Just look at last winter.  DEC was a torch although it was a weak El Nino:

 

 

 

But here was JFM:

 

 

 

My only point being a very warm DEC is nearly ALWAYS a given during a strong El Nino especially with the exception of 1930-31.You should know that.  You're being unreasonable...trying to justify the CFS v.2 is very difficult to do at this point.

[Stebo]

Not really.  Just look at last winter.  DEC was a torch although it was a weak El Nino:

 

 

 

But here was JFM:

 

 

 

My only point being a very warm DEC is nearly ALWAYS a given during a strong El Nino especially with the exception of 1930-31.You should know that.  You're being unreasonable...trying to justify the CFS v.2 is very difficult to do at this point.

You aren't understanding my point, a very above normal Dec means when you average in January and February you better hope they are both below average or else you are going to end up with near average or warmer temperatures for the winter. It just like this November, for the month as a whole to be average at this point we'd need a massive Arctic blast because it is so above normal through 12 days. I am not trying to justify anything other than it will be very hard to have a below average DJF if we have a very above normal D to start the winter off.

[stadiumwave]

You aren't understanding my point, a very above normal Dec means when you average in January and February you better hope they are both below average or else you are going to end up with near average or warmer temperatures for the winter. It just like this November, for the month as a whole to be average at this point we'd need a massive Arctic blast because it is so above normal through 12 days. I am not trying to justify anything other than it will be very hard to have a below average DJF if we have a very above normal D to start the winter off.

Okay...I see what your saying. I'm not sure what the 3 month average will look like but I think late Jan through Mar will be good for winter weather lovers from the southern plains to the mid-Atlantic

[Stebo]

Okay...I see what your saying. I'm not sure what the 3 month average will look like but I think late Jan through Mar will be good for winter weather lovers from the southern plains to the mid-Atlantic

Sure I can agree with that, but the thing is all these models are showing an above average winter for most around here unless you are south of Ohio River, it is to what magnitude. The way I am seeing it is really how cold will February be that is really the difference in these models. The only model that really shows pronounced cold north of the river is the NASA model beyond that it is above normal for everyone else in varying degrees. March though isn't weighted into those averages plus it is 4 months out so it will be harder to forecast for anyways at this point.

[Rainman]

The NASA model doesn't make any sense.  It isn't going to be warmer than normal across all of Canada and the northern Great Lakes and then be colder than normal in Detroit.  If we are part of that active Pacific storm track, then it ain't gonna be cold.  Sorry.

[Stebo]

The NASA model doesn't make any sense.  It isn't going to be warmer than normal across all of Canada and the northern Great Lakes and then be colder than normal in Detroit.  If we are part of that active Pacific storm track, then it ain't gonna be cold.  Sorry.

Great point, that's where I have issue with any model showing any cold anomalies above the Ohio River. Where is that cold air going to come from, especially since our source region looks to be way above average all across the board.

[Rainman]

Great point, that's where I have issue with any model showing any cold anomalies above the Ohio River. Where is that cold air going to come from, especially since our source region looks to be way above average all across the board.

 

Yup.  That is why the NASA solution is a warm one for Michigan as far as I am concerned.

[BuffaloWeather]

We don't have many analogs for record El Ninos, but the ones that we do have are always warmer than average for the Great lakes and Northeast. Hard to go against climo, despite the amount of data we have being so shallow. Would be cool to have hundreds and hundreds of years of data on hand to go by.

[beavis1729]

Great point, that's where I have issue with any model showing any cold anomalies above the Ohio River. Where is that cold air going to come from, especially since our source region looks to be way above average all across the board.

 

I know it's still early...but unfortunately, I agree with this.  We all talk about models, patterns, analogs, etc...but just looking at how things have unfolded over the past few weeks doesn't give much hope to winter lovers at this point.  Of course things can change...but there is just no cold air in the US or southern Canada - a complete 180 from last November.  As one example - INL hasn't dropped below 25 degrees this month yet...and they probably won't through Nov. 20.  Their normal low for today is 19!  There is no meaningful snow cover in the northern US or southern Canada either. 

 

My point is that it just doesn't feel like the typical "step down" to winter is going to occur anytime soon.  Again, I know things can change...and don't take this post as a whining rant.   Just some observations and thoughts.

[stadiumwave]

It all depends on how much the Aleutian low retrogrades.  Some of the guidance shows it retrograding quite a bit west.  That pulls the prominent ridge you're now seeing over E. Canada & U.S. to the west over W. Canada & NW U.S. If the Aleutian trough retrogrades NW, well so does the ridge.  When that happens it does indeed open the door for cold.  Question is will that happen the way some of the models are suggesting? If it does then it's inevitable.

[stadiumwave]

I know it's still early...but unfortunately, I agree with this.  We all talk about models, patterns, analogs, etc...but just looking at how things have unfolded over the past few weeks doesn't give much hope to winter lovers at this point.  Of course things can change...but there is just no cold air in the US or southern Canada - a complete 180 from last November.  As one example - INL hasn't dropped below 25 degrees this month yet...and they probably won't through Nov. 20.  Their normal low for today is 19!  There is no meaningful snow cover in the northern US or southern Canada either. 

 

My point is that it just doesn't feel like the typical "step down" to winter is going to occur anytime soon.  Again, I know things can change...and don't take this post as a whining rant.   Just some observations and thoughts.

 

For the life of me I do not get how the 1st 12 days of NOV has anything whatsoever to do with DJF.  It doesn't at all. The great El Nino winter of 2009-10 had a worse pattern than the current pattern for the 1st 12 days of NOV:

 

NOV 1-12, 2009

 

 

 

That was certainly no indication whatsoever of the greater winter that awaited.

 

While the 1st 12 days of NOV of 1997 would make any winter weather lover drool; however, that winter was a blowtorch:

 

NOV 1-12, 1997

 

 

 

Again, the point is some of you are not being rational at all.  Sure we could have a blowtorch winter but some of your reasons for thinking so are ridiculous.

[beavis1729]

Fair point, stadiumwave. 

 

All I'm saying is that I'd like to see the seasonal step-down to winter occur soon.  I'm not expecting deep winter conditions in November, and I'm not implying that warmth in November correlates to a DJF torch. 

 

Call me crazy...but it would be nice to see some cold build in Canada and the northern US. Nothing more, nothing less.  I've been through many winters where you wait until late Nov, then early Dec, then mid-Dec...and you're still wondering where winter is.  It's like the death pattern where the background/typical day is cloudy and above normal (especially at night, i.e. 40s in the day and freezing at night, when normals are around 30/15)...when "cold fronts" are dry and simply drop temps down to normal.  That's an ugly pattern. 

 

2006-07 is an example of a severely back-loaded winter (not saying 2015-16 is an analog).  That winter turned out ok...but it was painful to have to wait until February for winter to arrive.  My point is that a winter-lover is playing with fire by hoping for the end of winter to pull through...which is what a lot of outlooks seem to be counting on for DJF 2015-16.  Then you sit with 2.2" of seasonal snowfall on New Year's Day, wondering where winter has gone. 

 

Just banter/thoughts - trying to generate conversation.   I will say that it's good to see some active weather occurring...which looks to continue for awhile.

[stadiumwave]

Fair point, stadiumwave. 

 

All I'm saying is that I'd like to see the seasonal step-down to winter occur soon.  I'm not expecting deep winter conditions in November, and I'm not implying that warmth in November correlates to a DJF torch. 

 

Call me crazy...but it would be nice to see some cold build in Canada and the northern US. Nothing more, nothing less.  I've been through many winters where you wait until late Nov, then early Dec, then mid-Dec...and you're still wondering where winter is.  It's like the death pattern where the background/typical day is cloudy and above normal (especially at night, i.e. 40s in the day and freezing at night, when normals are around 30/15)...when "cold fronts" simply drop temps down to normal.  That's an ugly pattern. 

 

2006-07 is an example of a severely back-loaded winter (not saying 2015-16 is an analog).  That winter turned out ok...but it was painful to have to wait until February for winter to arrive.  My point is that a winter-lover is playing with fire by hoping for the end of winter to pull through...which is what a lot of outlooks seem to be counting on for DJF 2015-16.  Then you sit with 2.2" of seasonal snowfall on New Year's Day, wondering where winter has gone. 

 

Just banter/thoughts - trying to generate conversation.   I will say that it's good to see some active weather occurring...which looks to continue for awhile.

 

 

Well....don't expect anything to give you hope for winter for the rest of NOV & DEC.  Only when the Aleutian low begins retrograding NW will hope begin to be seen.  Probably the last half of JAN. Surely we can wait for that.  Remember last winter...it sucked badly until the last week of JAN, then the winter party was on in FEB.  Don't expect anything sooner this year.

[Geos]

For the life of me I do not get how the 1st 12 days of NOV has anything whatsoever to do with DJF.  It doesn't at all. The great El Nino winter of 2009-10 had a worse pattern than the current pattern for the 1st 12 days of NOV:

 

NOV 1-12, 2009

 

 

 

That was certainly no indication whatsoever of the greater winter that awaited.

 

While the 1st 12 days of NOV of 1997 would make any winter weather lover drool; however, that winter was a blowtorch:

 

NOV 1-12, 1997

 

 

 

Again, the point is some of you are not being rational at all.  Sure we could have a blowtorch winter but some of your reasons for thinking so are ridiculous.

 

No, the first half of November really doesn't matter. It was warm during that time period in 1975, 1977 and 1978 and look how those winters turned out.

 

Week of Thanksgiving on the GFS, 500mb pattern showing strong ridge over Alaska and near Greenland with it hooking over the high Arctic. That should shift things around here in a big way if that holds true.

[Rainman]

For the life of me I do not get how the 1st 12 days of NOV has anything whatsoever to do with DJF.  It doesn't at all. The great El Nino winter of 2009-10 had a worse pattern than the current pattern for the 1st 12 days of NOV:

 

NOV 1-12, 2009

 

 

 

That was certainly no indication whatsoever of the greater winter that awaited.

 

While the 1st 12 days of NOV of 1997 would make any winter weather lover drool; however, that winter was a blowtorch:

 

NOV 1-12, 1997

 

 

 

Again, the point is some of you are not being rational at all.  Sure we could have a blowtorch winter but some of your reasons for thinking so are ridiculous.

 

Well, considering we're locked in a classic el Nino pattern right now, and el Nino climatology suggests torching through all of Dec and at least most of Jan, and all the climate models are torching us basically through March, I'm not really sure it's irrational to assume we're in for a warm winter.

 

Whether you like it or not, 12 days' worth of observations are allowed to be used when making a forecast regardless of whether or not they had a linear correlation with December or January during other hand-picked historical winters.  It is up to the forecaster to discern their relevance in any given year.

 

The reality is that el Nino will punish the polar vortex going forward, and Siberian high pressure may help do the same.  That will give us a chance at a late winter -AO pattern.  But will there be cold air to work with after Canada spends 2 months getting scoured out from being downstream of the Aleutian low?  I dunno.  Maybe.  In the meantime, we'll be mostly warm and we'll just hope we end up on the cold side of some wrapped up storms with a subtropical connection to give us a couple good storms.

 

I really haven't seen any forecast reasoning other than that being stated by anyone.  Except the weenies who keep wish-casting modoki and telling us that this is 2009-2010 all over again.  But I'm not sure wish-casting counts as "forecast reasoning".

[Rainman]

To make my point, any forecaster who was paying attention knew things were going to change in 97 and 2009.  Especially the latter.  No WAY was 09-10 not going to feature a higher probability of snow across the south and a strong -AO signal.  You picked two years in which November was a terrible predictor of the future and are using it to try to try to say that November is therefore a terrible predictor of the future in 2015, when in fact it is probably a good predictor this year.

[Stebo]

It all depends on how much the Aleutian low retrogrades.  Some of the guidance shows it retrograding quite a bit west.  That pulls the prominent ridge you're now seeing over E. Canada & U.S. to the west over W. Canada & NW U.S. If the Aleutian trough retrogrades NW, well so does the ridge.  When that happens it does indeed open the door for cold.  Question is will that happen the way some of the models are suggesting? If it does then it's inevitable.

Models been showing that for ages now only to have it not happen. Color me skeptical but I don't see it happening either, that would be atypical of a strong el nino anyways.

[ClicheVortex2014]

The NASA model doesn't make any sense.  It isn't going to be warmer than normal across all of Canada and the northern Great Lakes and then be colder than normal in Detroit.  If we are part of that active Pacific storm track, then it ain't gonna be cold.  Sorry.

Yeah, and the Nino it was showing last month was ridiculous... no wonder why it was so cold. Now it's cut back on the westward extent of the Nino, and hey, it's less cold. Imagine that.

 

 

I can't believe this model has been talked about so much over the past couple months in some of the other subforums. Then again, with the temp/precip pattern it was showing, I can believe it

[Hoosier]

Models been showing that for ages now only to have it not happen. Color me skeptical but I don't see it happening either, that would be atypical of a strong el nino anyways.

 

 

Don't see it happening when?  2 weeks from now or 2 months from now? 

[Stebo]

Don't see it happening when?  2 weeks from now or 2 months from now? 

Well it might be like the elusive cold snap or warm up we see on the models where it doesn't come to fruition for a month.

[michsnowfreak]

For the life of me I do not get how the 1st 12 days of NOV has anything whatsoever to do with DJF. It doesn't at all. The great El Nino winter of 2009-10 had a worse pattern than the current pattern for the 1st 12 days of NOV:

NOV 1-12, 2009

That was certainly no indication whatsoever of the greater winter that awaited.

While the 1st 12 days of NOV of 1997 would make any winter weather lover drool; however, that winter was a blowtorch:

NOV 1-12, 1997

Again, the point is some of you are not being rational at all. Sure we could have a blowtorch winter but some of your reasons for thinking so are ridiculous.

I agree with this post. As a matter of fact, last year's record November cold snap aside, it seems like almost every year we hear the same things this time of year, at not quite mid-November. How often do we get the feeling we are settling into or stepping into winter on November 13th? Almost never.

A mild December appears in store for the region, but I'm sure the first several snowfalls will occur regardless.

[michsnowfreak]

and all the climate models are torching us basically through March

no....all of the climate models are not torching us through March. MOST of the climate models (sans NASA, perhaps a few others, not sure) have a milder than normal DJFM, but only the CFS is "torching" us through March. Departures of 0.5-1.5C is not a torch (most models).....departures of 3-5C is a huge torch (cfs and cfs only).

[Rainman]

no....all of the climate models are not torching us through March. MOST of the climate models (sans NASA, perhaps a few others, not sure) have a milder than normal DJFM, but only the CFS is "torching" us through March. Departures of 0.5-1.5C is not a torch (most models).....departures of 3-5C is a huge torch (cfs and cfs only).

 

Torching is relative to the model.  They have artificial constraints on the output to account for the unphysicality of their physics.  If the pattern that the models are showing holds, it's a torch.  I don't really care much about the raw temperature output.  That was my point I guess.

[michsnowfreak]

Torching is relative to the model.  They have artificial constraints on the output to account for the unphysicality of their physics.  If the pattern that the models are showing holds, it's a torch.  I don't really care much about the raw temperature output.  That was my point I guess.

Torching is a relative term I guess (it was coined on this board anyway). My point WAS the raw temp output. When you look at the array of models, specifically for my area most of them would convert to a winter temp departure of +1 to +2F, with a few +3F (and the outlier NASA a negative, but it should be pointed out that even the cold NASA has a mild Dec). CFS DJF departure would be +5F to +9F. Basically its at least 3 times warmer than any other model Ive seen. Even if it gets a seasonal pattern correct (which would be rare territory for the CFS) it will likely be way too warm with actual depicted temp departures.

[stadiumwave]

Torching is relative to the model. They have artificial constraints on the output to account for the unphysicality of their physics. If the pattern that the models are showing holds, it's a torch. I don't really care much about the raw temperature output. That was my point I guess.

The 500mb of the Euro, UKMET are great for Jan/Feb for southern plains to mid-Atlantic. Ignore the 2m temps.

The only seasonal model torching "THE CONUS" for all winter is the CFS v.2. Considering the Nino you can't ask for a better seasonal model output. I have no idea what models some of you are looking at.

[stadiumwave]

Well, considering we're locked in a classic el Nino pattern right now, and el Nino climatology suggests torching through all of Dec and at least most of Jan, and all the climate models are torching us basically through March, I'm not really sure it's irrational to assume we're in for a warm winter.

Whether you like it or not, 12 days' worth of observations are allowed to be used when making a forecast regardless of whether or not they had a linear correlation with December or January during other hand-picked historical winters. It is up to the forecaster to discern their relevance in any given year.

The reality is that el Nino will punish the polar vortex going forward, and Siberian high pressure may help do the same. That will give us a chance at a late winter -AO pattern. But will there be cold air to work with after Canada spends 2 months getting scoured out from being downstream of the Aleutian low? I dunno. Maybe. In the meantime, we'll be mostly warm and we'll just hope we end up on the cold side of some wrapped up storms with a subtropical connection to give us a couple good storms.

I really haven't seen any forecast reasoning other than that being stated by anyone. Except the weenies who keep wish-casting modoki and telling us that this is 2009-2010 all over again. But I'm not sure wish-casting counts as "forecast reasoning".

What seasonal model is torching us through March besides the CFS v.2?

EDIT: I hope you're not referring to me about saying g this is 2009-10 & pushing a Modoki. I have not & will not. Read my posts carefully. I picked 2 winters that were opposite to show drawing conclusions for the entire winter from NOV is just...stupid really.

[buckeye]

curious if anyone has a link to the Don S. winter forecast, (assuming he has one out).  He usually does a nice job.   

[snowcaine]

I thought 2009-2010 was a crummy winter. So dry here.

[Hoosier]

curious if anyone has a link to the Don S. winter forecast, (assuming he has one out).  He usually does a nice job.   

 

 

I saw some of his snowfall guesses for various cities (he had the Midwest/Northeast with less snow than average), but I don't think he has said anything about temps.

[Stebo]

The 500mb of the Euro, UKMET are great for Jan/Feb for southern plains to mid-Atlantic. Ignore the 2m temps.

The only seasonal model torching "THE CONUS" for all winter is the CFS v.2. Considering the Nino you can't ask for a better seasonal model output. I have no idea what models some of you are looking at.

The problem is those that are great for the southern plains and mid-Atlantic are horrible for the great lakes. Those models show a split flow. You can't exactly ignore the 2m temps though because there is no cold source, if Canada is absolutely on fire, which is pretty much universally agreed upon per the models. You aren't going to get cold air that originates off the Pacific. I am sure my post will label me a warminista but the fact is there is no real cold source this year, and cold air isn't going to magically appear, so I will hedge my bets on an above average winter for the region and the potential is there to be much above average.