Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 The problem is those that are great for the southern plains and mid-Atlantic are horrible for the great lakes. Those models show a split flow. You can't exactly ignore the 2m temps though because there is no cold source, if Canada is absolutely on fire, which is pretty much universally agreed upon per the models. You aren't going to get cold air that originates off the Pacific. I am sure my post will label me a warminista but the fact is there is no real cold source this year, and cold air isn't going to magically appear, so I will hedge my bets on an above average winter for the region and the potential is there to be much above average. Canada doesn't have to be "cold" necessarily. All we need are serviceable airmasses and it can snow. If it's an absolute inferno there then yeah, that could be a problem. I do agree with the end that we are likely to see a warmer than average winter when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I thought 2009-2010 was a crummy winter. So dry here. It was very average here.... with el nino.. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 There is definitely a bulge of abnormal cold into Russia right now. I don't like seeing the arctic airmass bulging over Asia like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Canada doesn't have to be "cold" necessarily. All we need are serviceable airmasses and it can snow. If it's an absolute inferno there then yeah, that could be a problem. I do agree with the end that we are likely to see a warmer than average winter when all is said and done. That's true, but conversely have we seen any model not have a full on blowtorch across all of Canada? I don't think there is a model showing even just above average, every model is well above average for Canada and below is also a good point... There is definitely a bulge of abnormal cold into Russia right now. I don't like seeing the arctic airmass bulging over Asia like that. ...because if you want cold you don't want the polar vortex setting up in Russia especially if we have no means for a cross polar flow, which doesn't look too likely this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 17 days left of November..... worry won't set in for me until around Nov 25th. We lost the entire month of December last year, I'd prefer not to have a repeat of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 It's Mid November. I'm ready for snow/cold. Way out there, but Euro has some nice hints of snow/cold during thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 We don't know whether it's dangling fake carrots or if it is a real cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Ensembles showing another AO/NAO spike coming. See who blinks first!They're less emphatic with the -NAO than the Euro but they definitely don't show a spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 They're less emphatic with the -NAO than the Euro but they definitely don't show a spike. The Euro is kind of alone on this compared to even its ensembles. The GFS and its ensembles do show both going back significantly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The Euro is kind of alone on this compared to even its ensembles. The GFS and its ensembles do show both going back significantly positive. Granted, the 0z Euro ensembles definitely did NOT have this -NAO, but the 12z ensembles did. The GFS ensembles don't have the -NAO, but both models do have that ridging in the NE Pacific around day 10. So, at this point we'll see on the NAO. It definitely hasn't been advertised to go negative up until this point. The ensembles have slowly been hinting at this NE Pac ridging for several days and it continues to look gradually better as we get closer. There's nothing saying we don't flip back to a more typical El Nino pattern in December with a GOA low flooding the country with warmth (in fact I'd probably expect it), but I think the idea of a cool down and possibly some snow chances Thanksgiving week is gaining some steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Granted, the 0z Euro ensembles definitely did NOT have this -NAO, but the 12z ensembles did. The GFS ensembles don't have the -NAO, but both models do have that ridging in the NE Pacific around day 10. So, at this point we'll see on the NAO. It definitely hasn't been advertised to go negative up until this point. The ensembles have slowly been hinting at this NE Pac ridging for several days and it continues to look gradually better as we get closer. There's nothing saying we don't flip back to a more typical El Nino pattern in December with a GOA low flooding the country with warmth (in fact I'd probably expect it), but I think the idea of a cool down and possibly some snow chances Thanksgiving week is gaining some steam. Yeah I could believe that the NAO might dip negative for a small period there, though it does have a fast flow look so it wouldn't be for very long if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Yeah I could believe that the NAO might dip negative for a small period there, though it does have a fast flow look so it wouldn't be for very long if it did.Yeah, I definitely don't think it would be long lasting if it occurred. The ensembles haven't really been trending negative with the NAO, it just appeared on the 12z Euro suite, so it may end up being a faux signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Yeah, I definitely don't think it would be long lasting if it occurred. The ensembles haven't really been trending negative with the NAO, it just appeared on the 12z Euro suite, so it may end up being a faux signal. Yeah, and it doesn't have the support of the GFS or the Canadian ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z GGEM also has the Greenland block....but I just consider it eye candy at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Verbatim, the 12z EURO towards the end of its run actually had a modest snowstorm / snow event for the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 18z GEFS Ensemble Mean 11-15 day CUMULATIVE 2m TempsThat's an absolutely nutty cumulative 2m temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Yeah, and it doesn't have the support of the GFS or the Canadian ensembles. 18z GEFS Ensemble MEan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 18z GEFS Ensemble MEan I was going off of the 12z and previous runs. I am not sure you are trying to troll me with this but I didn't have the future vision of the 18z run of the GFS when I made my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 18z GEFS Ensemble MEan Those 2m temp anomalies you posted means that there's good consensus among the ensembles that there's going to be a big cold spell. Therefore... you'd expect the models to agree that there'll be an equally big trough. They don't. So I doubt those 2m temp anomalies are real. You can see the individual ensembles 500mb patterns here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_18z/ensloopwide.html There are definitely a few ensembles that have a big trough swooping in in that period... but it's not enough models to weigh the 5 day mean to be that negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Those 2m temp anomalies you posted means that there's good consensus among the ensembles that there's going to be a big cold spell. Therefore... you'd expect the models to agree that there'll be an equally big trough. They don't. So I doubt those 2m temp anomalies are real. You can see the individual ensembles 500mb patterns here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_18z/ensloopwide.html There are definitely a few ensembles that have a big trough swooping in in that period... but it's not enough models to weigh the 5 day mean to be that negative. Yeah something isn't adding up there. That 500 mean though cooler isn't something that would match the 2m temp anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Canada doesn't have to be "cold" necessarily. All we need are serviceable airmasses and it can snow. If it's an absolute inferno there then yeah, that could be a problem. I do agree with the end that we are likely to see a warmer than average winter when all is said and done. Wasn't 09-10 the warmest winter on record for Canada? If the warmest winter on record in Canada is cold enough to produce what it did that winter in the US, I wouldn't worry too much about Canada this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 Wasn't 09-10 the warmest winter on record for Canada? If the warmest winter on record in Canada is cold enough to produce what it did that winter in the US, I wouldn't worry too much about Canada this winter. It could've been...I can't remember exactly where it ranked...I know it was up there among the warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Wasn't 09-10 the warmest winter on record for Canada? If the warmest winter on record in Canada is cold enough to produce what it did that winter in the US, I wouldn't worry too much about Canada this winter. The talk about Canada being too warm to bring down cold is ridiculous. Do people not realize how cold it gets up in Canada, and how relatively little of a difference +/- 5 degrees makes? The temps are gonna have to be a hell of a lot warmer than that. This post wasn't directed at you, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The talk about Canada being too warm to bring down cold is ridiculous. Do people not realize how cold it gets up in Canada, and how relatively little of a difference +/- 5 degrees makes? The temps are gonna have to be a hell of a lot warmer than that. This post wasn't directed at you, by the way. It does make a difference if the Arctic jet remains zonal across Canada, there would be no flow to bring the cold air down there +5 or not. The way most models are showing things for this winter the Arctic jet is up there and the subtropical jet is running through the south. Does that mean there will never be cold air, no it doesn't but the chances of prolonged cold air would be very subdued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 It does make a difference if the Arctic jet remains zonal across Canada, there would be no flow to bring the cold air down there +5 or not. The way most models are showing things for this winter the Arctic jet is up there and the subtropical jet is running through the south. Does that mean there will never be cold air, no it doesn't but the chances of prolonged cold air would be very subdued. Maybe I'm just interpreting the concerns wrong. I thought they were saying something along the lines of "if Canada is warmer than average, where will the cold air come from?", as in questioning the ability of the source region to produce cold enough air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Maybe I'm just interpreting the concerns wrong. I thought they were saying something along the lines of "if Canada is warmer than average, where will the cold air come from?", as in questioning the ability of the source region to produce cold enough air. Well that is part of it as well, if you are +5 up there the quality of the cold air is going to be much less, furthermore if the jet is running to the north of the Canadian prairies you won't build up a snow pack there and the cold air quality will be even more subdued. Think 2011-2012's winter, not saying that would happen but things do snowball if you have certain key pieces in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 12z Euro Ensemble Mean That's a strong cold signal for a day 11-15 ensemble mean. Again, doesn't mean it will verify but this is really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Well that is part of it as well, if you are +5 up there the quality of the cold air is going to be much less, furthermore if the jet is running to the north of the Canadian prairies you won't build up a snow pack there and the cold air quality will be even more subdued. Think 2011-2012's winter, not saying that would happen but things do snowball if you have certain key pieces in place. Yeah but the airmass in question comes from the part of Canada where their average temp is easily below 0F. Say their region has an average temp of -10 (purely arbitrary) for a day in January. Let's assume this day ended +5 relative to average for their area, so the average temp was -5. Let's say an arctic high forms in this area and moves southeast. Obviously there's going to be airmass modification as it moves southeast. South Canada's average high is closer to freezing, so it's plausible that they might not have as much of a snowpack. So depending on how warm south Canada is, and how much snow is on the ground, the airmass is gonna warm. But considering how cold it started, is it really gonna warm enough to make a significant difference? One that's worth worrying about? That Arctic airmass certainly won't be as cold as if Canada was 5 degrees below average... but when it gets here, what difference does it make when your high temp for a given day is 20 degrees vs. 15 degrees? It's gonna be cold enough to snow, it's gonna be cold enough to maintain any preexisting snowpack, and it's obviously gonna feel quite cold to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Pretty much. The deal with El Nino's are that the cold shots don't last very long. The one coming up on the models is going to be due to the -EPO spike that the models are showing. But how long will that last before the EPO heads back positive? The Euro ensemble control looked pretty crazy with all the height rises at the pole which turns the AO negative in the long range. Have to see if that sticks around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Confidence in at least a brief pattern change is growing. The EC ensembles have been driving that ridge up into Alaska for a couple of days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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