Kaner88 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Per NWS & RadarScope, looks like the KLOT radar is down. Pretty inopportune timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Will have to see how quickly the warm front lifts north. It's still in central/northern Missouri to far southern Illinois. The ongoing convection over NE/SD is another player. Either way, it looks like a pretty good bet that eastern Iowa into much of northern Illinois sees a lot of rain tonight. Exact placement and severe potential are still a bit unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 high-end training MCS on the 4-km NAM, buckets of rain for the already hardest hit areas Holy crud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Quincy, is flooding looking like the main threat? Seeing a lot of players to hinder upscale severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 area of IL will see more liquid in June than most of California has seen in a few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Quincy, is flooding looking like the main threat? Seeing a lot of players to hinder upscale severe. I think the upscale component resulting in a heavy rain/strong wind MCS is still a good possibility across northern Illinois. Initiation may be a bit too late for much of a tornado/hail threat and if that does exist, it would probably remain confined to near the IA/IL border, up into the eastern half of Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I think the upscale component resulting in a heavy rain/strong wind MCS is still a good possibility across northern Illinois. Initiation may be a bit too late for much of a tornado/hail threat and if that does exist, it would probably remain confined to near the IA/IL border, up into the eastern half of Iowa. Thanks! I was seeing some discrete initiate in E.IA on a few models, guess that's a wait and see deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 As the tail end of the early morning MCS continues to bubble into sw Iowa, a new MCS is hauling eastward into eastern Nebraska and it's not losing any steam. The latest hrrr run shows that cluster moving into east-central Iowa and blowing up into a strong line around 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Just considering the current surface maps/trends, as well as the subtle shifts from the high resolution guidance...I think the threat (as some have mentioned), may be trending somewhat southwest. This would be good for Chicagoland, but would still mean someone in central/northern Illinois gets a fair amount of rain. The HRRR has been showing different convective evolutions with respect to storm mode, but the latest run now initiates near and south of I-80 in southeastern Iowa, overspreading into adjacent northwest/west-central Illinois. Surface quast-stationary front now appears to be slightly further southwest than the 12z RAP/NAM were progging. Satellite imagery doesn't show much northward (if any) progress at the moment, but that should eventually change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Current MCS in NE. Nebraska will likely be the main event today as it moves across IA/IL, and then redevelopment/training tonight on top of that. Might be some potential along any OFB it puts down near I-80 in E. Nebraska/Iowa, if the warm front makes it back north to that area. Definitely not chasing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Still thinking the best shot for meaningful severe generally stays south of a Des Moines to Pontiac IL line. Heavy rain north of there with some isolated severe certainly, but biggest wind/tor threat should generally stay south of that line IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 You can tell enthusiasm has waned - we're only on 4 pages for a enhanced severe weather event for today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 You can tell enthusiasm has waned - we're only on 4 pages for a enhanced severe weather event for today....I've noticed that. I think we're all also waiting for the new D1 to come out. Let's see what they do. (Most likely a shift south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 You can tell enthusiasm has waned - we're only on 4 pages for a enhanced severe weather event for today.... Parameters for severe aren't off the charts like the other night...i think it is still gonna be a long evening and night for parts of iowa and illinois though...wind and heavy precip the main threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Still thinking the best shot for meaningful severe generally stays south of a Des Moines to Pontiac IL line. Heavy rain north of there with some isolated severe certainly, but biggest wind/tor threat should generally stay south of that line IMO. the agreement on this among the regulars is pretty strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 It's almost noon and winds are still out of the northeast at a pretty good clip (10kt). Hell, even Columbia, MO still has NE winds. Warm front has definitely struggled to lift north this morning. If that pile of activity over E. NE and SW IA gets going, it's going to ride much further south than originally progged. Basically, no guidance had a decent handle on this morning's convection (except the 00Z 4km WRF-NMM) and the monkey wrench is currently in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 It's almost noon and winds are still out of the northeast at a pretty good clip (10kt). Hell, even Columbia, MO still has NE winds. Warm front has definitely struggled to lift north this morning. If that pile of activity over E. NE and SW IA gets going, it's going to ride much further south than originally progged. Basically, no guidance had a decent handle on this morning's convection (except the 00Z 4km WRF-NMM) and the monkey wrench is currently in the air. And considering we are both in STL, I think we'd like a further south solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Seems to be a slight eastward shift in the new 1630z D1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 It's almost noon and winds are still out of the northeast at a pretty good clip (10kt). Hell, even Columbia, MO still has NE winds. Warm front has definitely struggled to lift north this morning. If that pile of activity over E. NE and SW IA gets going, it's going to ride much further south than originally progged. Basically, no guidance had a decent handle on this morning's convection (except the 00Z 4km WRF-NMM) and the monkey wrench is currently in the air. The most recent HRRR run is starting to get a better grip. This is pretty similar to what the radar looks like now... it just has some timing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Interesting that they added hatched hail probabilities back into the new Day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 RGEM sticks with 3+ for most of N IL...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Anybody else notice that it's taken almost 20mins to update the outlooks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 D1 enhanced moves EVER SO SLIGHTLY south (the northern extent went from Waukegan to Highland Park)... still don't think I should be in the Enhanced at this point but SPC must see something that is keeping them steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Anybody else notice that it's taken almost 20mins to update the outlooks? it's out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The 4kNam still wants to show big storms coming in around 08z or so for tomorrow, 2amish if I'm right. Might be a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The 4kNam is already busting fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 SPC shifts it a bit, they're still a little more bullish than I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 fyp lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 SPC shifts it a bit, they're still a little more bullish than I would think. Yep, literally 15 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Storms in W IA are really all thats going on, CAPE is low here and only at 1,000 currently in IA. Nothing to get excited about. The sun is out here, but its not that muggy at all - in fact dewpoint is 59.... Looks to be more like a soaker than a stormer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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