jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 00Z 4KM NAM and 12KM NAM still go nuts for tomorrow evening on the soundings near DMX, and even the 00Z GFS is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 21Z SREF is also very impressive for Central Iowa tomorrow at 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 21Z SREF is also very impressive for Central Iowa tomorrow at 00Z. The sig tor ingredients actually dropped off significantly from the 15z to the 21z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 00z ARW is pretty far south. Will be interesting to see what SPC does on the 6z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The sig tor ingredients actually dropped off significantly from the 15z to the 21z run. They dropped off to a point yes... But i wouldn't say significantly, as in a big decrease. Both STP fixed and cin only dropped by <1.0, and SCP fell by less than 2. And CAPE increased by nearly 300J/KG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The past few HRRR runs have been getting better in terms of the morning convection and subsequent destabilization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Regarding tonight in the threat area later today... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1239 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB / WRN THROUGH SRN IA / NRN MO /W-CNTRL ILCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 240539Z - 240645ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASEEARLY THIS MORNING WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION.CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OFSTORMS WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WATCH.DISCUSSION...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATTHE TERMINUS OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ...ELEVATED TSTMSHAVE DEVELOPED FROM E OF SUX TO NEAR AND SW OF DSM AS OF 0520Z.OTHER STORMS WERE DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME DOWNSTREAM FROM A SMALLMCS NEAR MCK OVER CNTRL NEB /N OF GRI/. THESE LOW-LEVEL FORCINGMECHANISMS WILL PERSIST /AND LIKELY STRENGTHEN/ OVER THE NEXT COUPLEOF HOURS...PROMOTING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THEDISCUSSION AREA.WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE 00Z OAX AND TOPSOUNDINGS WERE NOT FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH...RICHERLOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING WILL CONTINUETO BE ADVECTED POLEWARD...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATIONFOR MOST-UNSTABLE PARCELS. AND GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSERATES AND AMPLE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVEOF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHESTPROBABILITY FOR MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS OVER CNTRL INTOERN NEB WHERE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD BECOME A CONCERN INADDITION TO THE HAIL THREAT. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BEMONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE...MEAD.. 06/24/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 SPC 06Z Thunderstorm outlook highlighted an area from NW'ern/W-Central IA eastward into NW'ern Illinois as having the highest probability of thunderstorms at 40% from 20Z to 00Z... 06Z SPC Severe Outlook should be out soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 ..THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CORNBELT ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE N-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.... ..SUMMARY A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN FOCUS IN THE CORNBELT REGION LATE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. ..SYNOPSIS CORRIDOR OF STRONG MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE N OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY AND ADVANCE NWD INTO IA AS A WARM FRONT. ..MID MS VALLEY REGION CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NEB/IA ON THE NOSE OF A CNTRL PLAINS LLJ INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE LOW TO MID MO VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IA INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND PERHAPS POSE A LARGE HAIL/WIND RISK. NONETHELESS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF MORNING STORMS ACROSS IA/WRN IL. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE INVOF THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --ANALYZED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT-- WILL MOVE TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WEAKEN THE CAP AND ISOLD TO SCTD STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN A STRONG TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. VEERING WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL LIKELY YIELD A SUPERCELL MODE INITIALLY WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT AN OTHERWISE GREATER TORNADO THREAT ACROSS IA THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. BY MID EVENING...THE INTENSIFICATION AND VEERING OF LLJ INTO IA SHOULD PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN ESEWD-MOVING SEVERE MCS OVERNIGHT. A CONCENTRATED SWATH OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING BOW ECHO AND PERHAPS AN ACCOMPANYING MESOVORTEX TORNADO RISK MAY RESULT. IT IS POSSIBLE A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THIS SCENARIO. ..CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF FRONT/SFC LOW WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ..CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE SERN U.S ISOLD TO SCTD DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INVOF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND LOCALLY WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. A HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT AND VERY WEAK FLOW WILL RESULT IN PULSE STORMS. THE LARGER AND MORE WATER-LOADED CORES WILL POTENTIALLY YIELD LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE OWING TO 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE RISK WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ..SMITH/ROGERS.. 06/24/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Decent northward jog on the new Day 1 with enhanced up to the IL/WI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Screen Shot 2015-06-24 at 1.04.22 AM.png Decent northward jog on the new Day 1 with enhanced up to the IL/WI border. Intriguing. Certainly warrants keeping an eye on, but the best stuff looks to be south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Not too sure about the 5% tornado risk... Environment that the "initial supercells" will be in is very impressive as noted by a number of CAM's... Perhaps they're waiting for things to come in to better focus, as far as a more exact location of the WF and therefore an area of generally enhanced tornado/very large hail potential. I'd bet that at the 1630Z update-- if trends continue in models with an impressive environment, and it becomes clear that there will be not much in the way of convection lingering into the afternoon-- that we will see an increase in all 3 probs. To 10% hatched for TOR's, At least 30% hatched for large hail, and 45% hatched (MDT) for damaging winds. But that's just an idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 None of the models I've looked at develop much surface based cape over the northern and northeastern extent of the enhanced portion of the risk area. Festering morning convection would only further reduce cape further north as well. In my eyes that's too far northeast, but SPC obviously has fantastic forecasters who are probably seeing some things that I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 None of the models I've looked at develop much surface based cape over the northern and northeastern extent of the enhanced portion of the risk area. Festering morning convection would only further reduce cape further north as well. In my eyes that's too far northeast, but SPC obviously has fantastic forecasters who are probably seeing some things that I'm not. SBCAPE doesnt make it into the area, since the WF lags to the south... However AT LEAST modest to moderate MUCAPE will likely make it into that area by 03-09Z but maybe not too north of the WI/IL line, and with the impressive forecasted LLJ it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 None of the models I've looked at develop much surface based cape over the northern and northeastern extent of the enhanced portion of the risk area. Festering morning convection would only further reduce cape further north as well. In my eyes that's too far northeast, but SPC obviously has fantastic forecasters who are probably seeing some things that I'm not. It seems like they are hedging toward a well developed linear MCS being able to transport severe winds to the ground, even with a lack of surface based instability in those areas. Like you, I'm wondering about the northeastward placement, but not having too much extensive daytime activity would be step 1 toward having a better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Well there's your token MCS developing in SD, never fails in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 06z NAM 4km & 'regular' NAM justify the shift north on the new outlook, it appears. Nasty storms in the northern suburbs by 07z Thursday per the 4km. Flash flood watch also extended to the northern tier of LOT counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I don't see much of a severe threat outside LOTs far south and west CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Lots of convection and associated clouds over Iowa this morning, with another large complex incoming from northern NE/southern SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I don't see much of a severe threat outside LOTs far south and west CWA. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 given the modeled LLJ, slow storm motion on the southern flank and likely back building, I think we see a corridor of 3-4" from CID through IKK and wouldn't be surprised to see lollies over 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I think the northern metro areas and probably Rockford will end up under the MCS stratiform rain shield. Biggest threat probably will be high winds - like some of you mentioned. Unfortunately I can see the same areas as Monday night getting the most severe weather tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 No real changes in newest Day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 seeing the telltale back building across IA (actually back into NE now), should see an adjustment south on the next update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Year of the morning MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 seeing the telltale back building across IA (actually back into NE now), should see an adjustment south on the next updateHRRR shows an initial shot favoring south LOT in the evening then a new batch brewing into northern iowa after dark...and would probably get cranking with a noc jet...the frontal area sure looks like its going to see buckets of QPF over the next 24 hoursEdit....sim radar shows numerous discrete cells from Clinton back to Northcentral Iowa at 03Z 25JUNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 HRRR shows an initial shot favoring south LOT in the evening then a new batch brewing into northern iowa after dark...and would probably get cranking with a noc jet...the frontal area sure looks like its going to see buckets of QPF over the next 24 hours Edit....sim radar shows numerous discrete cells from Clinton back to Northcentral Iowa at 03Z 25JUNE given the warm front placement (and likely future placement) what we really need is initiation over far S. MN not IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Overall trend i am seeing thus far this morning is for a couple distinct rounds in and around N IL...frontal orientation and position differs model to model. I just hope the hardest hit areas a few days ago don't get slammed too hard...looks like things are setting up for another tough night for them though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 i can see the evolution of a bow line forming in IA, west of DVN and scooting along I80 again, but not until midnight or later. I wouldn't be surprised if nearly the majority of LOT stays dry most of today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 high-end training MCS on the 4-km NAM, buckets of rain for the already hardest hit areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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