Hoosier Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 Here's what the 18z 4km NAM has for 21z. This is going to be a bit off. Has a heavy band of precip through Chicago, but with how it initialized, I'd use with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Here's what the 18z 4km NAM has for 21z. This is going to be a bit off. nam4km_ref_ncus_1.png Has a heavy band of precip through Chicago, but with how it initialized, I'd use with caution. Versus what we see at 2035Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Also for those who are worried about rainfall potential across IL, this is the SPC Thunderstorm forecast for 04Z-12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Also for those who are worried about rainfall potential across IL, this is the SPC Thunderstorm forecast for 04Z-12Z. Woah. Thats huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Here's what the 18z 4km NAM has for 21z. This is going to be a bit off. nam4km_ref_ncus_1.png Has a heavy band of precip through Chicago, but with how it initialized, I'd use with caution. Since it's a cold start model, not always going to pick up on ongoing convection based off initialized 18z data, and also doesn't mean it won't have a decent handle later. But certainly a good idea to use with caution, as with other high-res guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Hoping for at least a nice downpour, in Winnetka for the week, but looks like very little. Certainly looks interesting for S IA and SE IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Seems like that intersection of the boundaries in extreme SE IA/ extreme E Nebraska could be a focus for initiation. Latest Vis. Sat. appears to show some CU agitation in this area? Effective STP in this area is maximized at 7 as well, and with strong shear, extreme buoyancy, and impressive veering, any storm that goes up will have a good shot at all severe hazards, including maybe a strong tornado... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 0-3KM SRH as of 21Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Nice MCV with that MCS in E. IA/NW. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 STP and SCP are starting to go through the roof near the NE/IA/MO border, but capping hangs on for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 0-3KM SRH as of 21Z... Some very impressive parameters along the warm front... glad they re-introduced the 10%. Can't wait to see the 00z soundings... It's frustrating yet amusing to see the HRRR fail for the forecast at 10PM eastern. It's only 5 hours away... and I'm in the enhanced risk for tomorrow. Nope... not feeling good. http://i.imgur.com/oMQcq8H.gif http://i.imgur.com/6svdNmY.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Bullseye.. lol That a 0-3KM EHI of 19 btw (not in the exact risk area, but still interesting) should shift east into the area it seems too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 STP and SCP are starting to go through the roof near the NE/IA/MO border, but capping hangs on for the time being. I see values in the 40s, crazy high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Nice MCV with that MCS in E. IA/NW. IL.Looks like it'll push right through the LOT CWA if it holds together.Dive SE fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Looks like it'll push right through the LOT CWA if it holds together. Dive SE fail. hahahaha yup. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Hoping for at least a nice downpour, in Winnetka for the week, but looks like very little. Certainly looks interesting for S IA and SE IA. Oh so you're right by me. Im also hoping for ANYTHING at this point (pretty sure we'll get a downpour) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Looks like it'll push right through the LOT CWA if it holds together. Dive SE fail. HRRR ftl...plain old 12z nam actually handling the day pretty well thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Modified soundings to match current observed temp/DP's across S/SE/SW IA, looks pretty slim for CI across that area of impressive parameters, too strong a cap in place for subtle processes or just heating to overcome it seems.. Doesn't appear to be any obvious points for CI later either... Besides perhaps in far S IA/ SE IA along what appears to be a subtle OFB on vis sat. Guess we will have to wait to see what the LLJ/WAA can achieve in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Looks like it'll push right through the LOT CWA if it holds together. Dive SE fail. Yup. More rain showers on the barby and a rain delay at wrigley. Have to say it's been a special June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 FWIW... the past 5 HRRR runs have had the MCS taking a SE dive after hitting LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 23 EHI now... has anyone seen higher than this? STP is off the charts... supercell composite is at 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The severe weather parameters are almost as high as 6/16/14. It means nothing if we can't buy a discrete cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Latest HRRR has storms popping in east Nebraska at 23z... which is new. Mesoanalysis suggests the cap is eroding on the Nebraska/Iowa border... and even uncapped roughly up to Omaha. Who knows if that's legit... but they do still have 2 hours of sun. Visible satellite: http://i.imgur.com/jf5Sas1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The severe weather parameters are almost as high as 6/16/14. It means nothing if we can't buy a discrete cell. Wasn't that the day of the Stanton Tornado? Had a PDS watch that day too... And just for posterity and an example here is the 19Z Special OAX sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 850 transport starting to kick pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Some convection firing near Carroll, IA. Worth a watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 A couple storms popped near Templeton IA in the last 15 minutes. Went from nothing to 50,000 feet tops in 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Some convection firing near Carroll, IA. Worth a watch at least. The main show or is the main show still to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Developed right along the WF it looks like... according to meso-analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 A couple storms popped near Templeton IA in the last 15 minutes. Went from nothing to 50,000 feet tops in 15 minutes. Dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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