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June 20-21 and June 24-27 Heavy Rain/Severe Threats


Hoosier

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Not even close on the east side, plus your area was forecast to get less than the rest of the metro area.

 

The only model spitting out 4"+ for a a larger swath of SEMI was the 4km NAM anyway. SREF ensemble was closer to 1-2" progged. (and watching the SREF in June is a whole 'nother level of weird, but hey.)

 

4PM obs is 61 deg with N23G38 winds at DTW. Pretty much 1992 level of amazingly bad weather on a summer afternoon.

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The only model spitting out 4"+ for a a larger swath of SEMI was the 4km NAM anyway. SREF ensemble was closer to 1-2" progged. (and watching the SREF in June is a whole 'nother level of weird, but hey.)

 

4PM obs is 61 deg with N23G38 winds at DTW. Pretty much 1992 level of amazingly bad weather on a summer afternoon.

 

 

Nothing beats June 21st, 1992. High 48 low 40 with afternoon rain. It was pretty nasty in Michigan too. Perfect summer solstice weather LOL. 

I remember June 1992 quite well, despite only having been 12. Felt so unusual having to wear a jacket during the last week of school before the summer holidays. June 1982 was apparently quite chilly as well. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't an El Nino present in both 1982 and 1992? I think Pinatubo played a part in the cool 1992 summer, though. Look on the positive side. At least we're not having a summer like that of 1816.

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Around Adrian and Lenawee county, it looks like those 4-6" amounts will come into fruition. Not that much here in the city, but we were kinda in a screw zone for quite a while. Still very nasty out there, but disaster averted it seems.

They likely already have accumulated at least 4" of rain. There are no quality precip measurements from any of the ASOS sites in DTX's lower tier, but here's the rainfall totals from the 4 ASOS sites in NWOH through 8PM: 

 

KTOL (Toledo Express- West of Toledo):  3.20" 

KTDZ (Toledo Executive- SE of Toledo): 4.70"

KDFI (Defiance, OH): 4.00" 

KFDY (Findlay, OH): 2.27" 

 

KTDZ should easily hit 5" within the next hour or so as heavy rain sits over but Toledo airports down I-75 towards Findlay. 

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  

916 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015  

   

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

   

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

0916 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE NEWVILLE 41.39N 84.82W  

06/27/2015 M6.90 INCH DE KALB IN TRAINED SPOTTER  

 

48 HOUR TOTAL.  

 

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The wife and I drove through the Fort last night and there were still thousands without power and there are thousands of trees broke off or uprooted. There is a subdivison with two large Colorado Blue Spruce, one on either side of the entrance that were uprooted. They should just leave them there and rename the place, "Fallen Pines".

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The wife and I drove through the Fort last night and there were still thousands without power and there are thousands of trees broke off or uprooted. There is a subdivison with two large Colorado Blue Spruce, one on either side of the entrance that were uprooted. They should just leave them there and rename the place, "Fallen Pines".

 

 

And the surface low actually didn't deepen as quickly as some model runs had been indicating a couple days in advance.  The winds might've even been worse if that happened.  :yikes:

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The 4km has been going nuts with precip lately and not really verifying, so there's that.

 

It's still spitting out some pretty high amounts. If that verified, the North Central part of the state would be :flood::snorkle:

The RGEM and HRRR depicts the heaviest stripe of precip across Central IN, with the HRRR probably more realistic with amounts.

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I heard on the AM radio driving home from the farm last night that "the state (IL) had set a new record for rainfall in a month" ... not completely sure what the stipulations were for the record, but it didn't include any precip from yesterday yet either

Edit...wettest JUNE on record for IL....broke a record dating back to 1902..8.27 inches

New record through saturday...8.91

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I heard on the AM radio driving home from the farm last night that "the state (IL) had set a new record for rainfall in a month" ... not completely sure what the stipulations were for the record, but it didn't include any precip from yesterday yet either

Edit...wettest JUNE on record for IL....broke a record dating back to 1902..8.27 inches

New record through saturday...8.91

 

Yep, via the IL State Climatologist: https://climateillinois.wordpress.com

 

12z NAM pounds this area tomorrow morning with a relatively small band of heavy rain. Don't need it...can't take anymore. 

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