homedis Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Storms in W IA are really all thats going on, CAPE is low here and only at 1,000 currently in IA. Nothing to get excited about. The sun is out here, but its not that muggy at all - in fact dewpoint is 59.... Looks to be more like a soaker than a stormer SPC surprisingly still seems adamant about the Warm front lifting enough to enable all of the enhanced to be in the severe weather threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 It's almost noon and winds are still out of the northeast at a pretty good clip (10kt). Hell, even Columbia, MO still has NE winds. Warm front has definitely struggled to lift north this morning. If that pile of activity over E. NE and SW IA gets going, it's going to ride much further south than originally progged. Basically, no guidance had a decent handle on this morning's convection (except the 00Z 4km WRF-NMM) and the monkey wrench is currently in the air.Noon obs still show winds north of east at Columbia and Boonville. Almost have to wonder if the SPC shift S wasn't enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Most of the 12z WRF/4 KM NAM runs maintain an intense squall line across the SPC enhanced area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 Friday looks like another heavy rain event south of I-80 and maybe more toward I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 fyp Yep...Doesn't have any of the current activity from E. Nebraska into C. Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I 80 corridor near des moines...getting trained by buckets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Latest HRRR shows an interesting scenario. The current complex in far western IA stretches out a trail of sups on it's southwest flank over south-central/southeast IA by late afternoon. Now that I can believe. Very impressive tor parameters in that area by then. The northeasterlies at Columbia MO are from a shallow outflow boundary, and that should mix out in next few hours. Winds north of there are already ripping out of the southeast. From a chasing perspective the smartest choice may be to play the southern end of that complex, where it will have access to the building buoyancy to the south/southwest, and tons of SRH. The later (main) show this evening looks like more of an elevated event north of the front. Don't know if we see anything surface-based behind this ongoing complex. Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 LOT... 000 FXUS63 KLOT 241718 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1218 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 .UPDATE... 1217 PM CDT ALL INDICATIONS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO POINT TO A CLASSIC TYPE HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO DECENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL LATER THIS EVENING...AND THIS PRIMARILY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SHOWERS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER FOCUS OF LAST NIGHTS LOW LEVEL JET. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUD TOPS WARMING WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND EVEN INDICATES SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. FARTHER WEST...HOWEVER...AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NE AND NEAR FAR WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER IOWA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MLCAPE GRADIENT. THIS ACTIVITY...SHOULD IT MAINTAIN ITSELF THOUGH THE DAY...WOULD LIKELY MISS MOST OF MY AREA...POSSIBLY ONLY IMPACTING MY SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS ARE IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. IT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THAT RENEWED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD THEN LIKELY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE AS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES UPSTREAM THANKS TO A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUALLY REPLENISHING THE DEEP MOISTURE. THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR WITHIN AROUND A 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT...SO EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL BE A HIGH CONCERN. ALSO...WITH CONTINUAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT LOOKING LIKELY...TRAINING AND BACKBULDING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN PROLONGED PERIODS OF THESE VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES OCCURRING OVER THE SAME AREAS. AS SUCH...SOME ISOLATED AREAS OVER THE AREA COULD EXPERIENCE 4-5+ INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY ABATES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL. HOWEVER...WITH THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88 WOULD LIKELY STAND THE BEST POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITHIN THESE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...THE KINEMATIC FIELDS OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. A TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER... THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHEST OVER MY SOUTHEASTERN CWA THIS EVENING IN CLOSER PROXIMATELY TO THE APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KJB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 cedar rapids is going to take another nice hit after getting worked over a couple days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Very impressive severe bow echo in western Iowa. HRRR had a cluster of storms in the area, but nothing as impressive as this bow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Been pumping water out of my parent's basement for the past 24 hours+. Just a total sick feeling thinking of more heavy rainfall tonight/overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Looks like a mini meso low forming on the north end of that bowing line in western iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 Been pumping water out of my parent's basement for the past 24 hours+. Just a total sick feeling thinking of more heavy rainfall tonight/overnight. The bad part about this hobby. Get some rest when you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The bad part about this hobby. Get some rest when you can. lol, so true. And yeah, sleep/rest is at a bare minimum right now. It's very taxing on everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Against my better judgement took off of work and planned to chase today, and guess I still will despite the fairly murky prospect for success. Probably one of the last chases of the season so why not. Gonna go out and play the southern end of that incoming complex. Could see a few sups take root there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Good luck cyclone, what time range are we looking at for sup development if it takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 lol, so true. And yeah, sleep/rest is at a bare minimum right now. It's very taxing on everyone. You might've already thought of this but if your parents don't have a generator, now would be a good time to get one. Have had that problem before when helping out my mom...storm knocks out the power, there's a rush on generators and then you're kinda screwed with trying to get one. Still enough variance in the model solutions for tonight, but even if IKK avoids high winds, gonna be tougher to avoid heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 WPC moved the moderate excessive rainfall threat area further west and south, from this morning's update. Hopefully they're on to something. Regardless, some are gonna get smoked. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD940 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015...VALID 15Z WED JUN 24 2015 - 12Z THU JUN 25 2015......REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM10 NE DPA 30 WSW ASW 10 NW AID 10 NNE BMG FOA 10 WNW CPS35 N COU 10 WSW FNB 15 W FET 15 SSW SPW 10 S PDC 10 NE DPA.MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM20 S LWD 10 SE RDK 15 NNW ADU 15 WNW MIW 10 N DVN 10 ESE C7515 WSW CMI 15 SW TAZ 10 ESE UIN 20 S LWD....NEBRASKA / IOWA / ILLINOIS / MISSOURI / INDIANA...CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED WITHINTHE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE FROM 925-850 MB ACROSS SOUTHERNIOWA/ FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI / WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ANDEXTENDING INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND INDIANA. THE 00ZCYCLE OF MESOSCALE MODELS PRODUCED UNUSUALLY HIGH RAIN TOTALSACROSS THE BOARD. IN FACT...THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERALMODELS...PREDICTS 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN EASTERN IOWA THROUGH 12ZTHURSDAY. INDIVIDUAL MODELS PREDICT SMALLER SCALE...COUNTYLEVEL...TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES. GIVEN THE OVERALL CONSISTENCY OFTHE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN IN OUR PREFERRED MODELSFOR THIS EVENT /WRF ARW---NMMB---NSSL WRF AND ECMWF / A MODERATERISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN IOWA/ FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI / WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.IN THE 15Z UPDATE THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS WERE EXPANDEDWESTWARD...AND THE MODERATE RISK AREA WAS DROPPED SLIGHTLYSOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HRRR CAPEFORECASTS. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING WAS FRACTUREDAND SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY INHIBIT THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OFUNSTABLE AIR THROUGH NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE CONVECTION WASEXTENSIVE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...THAT THERE ARE NO QUESTIONS ABOUT HOWFAR NORTHEAST THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ABLE TODEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HRRR NOW KEEPING THE CAPE AXIS MORENARROW AND CONFINED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WPC TRIMMED THE EASTERNPORTION OF THE MODERATE RISK TO REMOVE INDIANA AND EASTERNILLINOIS...AS INFLOW WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTH AND WESTSIDES OF THE CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THESE AREAS DO REMAINWITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS THE EVENT WILL MIGRATE IN THATDIRECTION BY THURSDAY MORNING.WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR CAPPING THEENVIRONMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOCENTRAL MISSOURI...LARGE SCALE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FARTHERNORTH...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BEMAXIMIZED. A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILLALSO CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF UPPERDIFFLUENCE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OFTRAINING OF CELLS IN A WEST TO EAST DIRECTION ACROSS THE MODERATERISK AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE 0000 TO 1200 UTC THURSDAY TIME FRAMEWHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ORIENTED WEST TOEAST. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR WAS AN ONGOING MCS IN NORTHERNNEBRASKA WHICH HAD RACED AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS ANDTROUGH AXIS. THE MCS WAS RELATIVELY SMALL AND HAS SHOWN WEAKENINGTRENDS AS OF 13Z...BUT WARM ADVECTION MAY SUSTAIN SOME SEMBLANCEOF AN MCS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN IOWA.THIS COULD BE A FACTOR IN DETERMINING TIMING AND FOCUS OF THEFLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WHICH IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO INCREASEDURING THE LOW LEVEL JET CYCLE OVERNIGHT. WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PWVALUES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE...AND AN OVERALL FAVORABLEPATTERN...WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY. EXPECTSHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1-2" AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF5"+ POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 wouldn't be surprised if i only see a couple light showers up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Against my better judgement took off of work and planned to chase today, and guess I still will despite the fairly murky prospect for success. Probably one of the last chases of the season so why not. Gonna go out and play the southern end of that incoming complex. Could see a few sups take root there. Thats my most recent thinking too just stay south and hope for the WF to retreat further north.... I'd sit somewhere around Osceola, IA. Most recent iterations of the HRRR don't really convect anything significant behind/ south of this current MCS though... But there's no reason to not believe that the current MCS wouldn't leave behind an OFB to provide a focus point for a bit later as a secondary quasi-warm front, OR just reinforce the current warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 You might've already thought of this but if your parents don't have a generator, now would be a good time to get one. Have had that problem before when helping out my mom...storm knocks out the power, there's a rush on generators and then you're kinda screwed with trying to get one. Still enough variance in the model solutions for tonight, but even if IKK avoids high winds, gonna be tougher to avoid heavy rain. That's good advice for sure. I finally talked them into calling/hiring a professional service too. Unfortunately, it looks like it's going to get worse before it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 wouldn't be surprised if i only see a couple light showers up this way ARW basically had that, although it's missing the ongoing activity that rolled out of NE into IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 Iowa complex marching eastward, not showing any signs of making a turn yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Also the new WPC QPF forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Iowa complex marching eastward, not showing any signs of making a turn yet.I wonder when it will turn. Still marching E if not ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Iowa complex marching eastward, not showing any signs of making a turn yet. I wonder when it will turn. Still marching E if not ENE the warm front turns hard southeast towards the river...strong southerly flow under the complex will be cutoff soon and we'll see the turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I wonder when it will turn. Still marching E if not ENE 850mb-300mb wind shows it ought to start turning as it shifts across the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 RAP also showing a near shutout for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 18z HRRR initialized reasonably well and shows the current Iowa storms making a bit of a turn later but not enough to keep it completely out of Chicago. Plenty of bust potential to go around tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 RAP also showing a near shutout for the city Dang, was at least hoping for a few claps, and some heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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