yoda Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 At the end of its run, but 14z HRRRRRRRRR is okay to decent for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 lots of model agreement that multiple waves of rainfall will be moving through the Mid-Atlantic through the evening and overnight hours but still a lot of disagreement on the placement/timing of the heavier rain. For those wanting good storms, one issue is that the NAM and HRRR both have very, very little progged instability unless you go well west or south of DC, even for parcels starting above the boundary layer. It's possible that lightning may be quite limited, and it may just be soaking showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 lots of model agreement that multiple waves of rainfall will be moving through the Mid-Atlantic through the evening and overnight hours but still a lot of disagreement on the placement/timing of the heavier rain. For those wanting good storms, one issue is that the NAM and HRRR both have very, very little progged instability unless you go well west or south of DC, even for parcels starting above the boundary layer. It's possible that lightning may be quite limited, and it may just be soaking showers. Is that just for the regular NAM, or does that include the HI-RES one as well? The 4KM NAM seems to like a band of what looks to be heavy storms in N VA around 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 I saw that - not sure what to make of it. Both the NAM and NAM nest forecasts for 3z tonight have at best a few hundred j/kg of best (accounting for sfc-based and elevated parcels) cape. The values are slightly higher further west where it has the storms at 3z (although seemingly still not sufficient for intense updrafts), but with the cape dropping off ahead of it, I would expect weakening if these forecasts are correct. I still wonder if these good reflectivity signals are just indicating very heavy rain showers, consistent with the 2"+ precipitable water values that the NAM (and GFS) are showing. Is that just for the regular NAM, or does that include the HI-RES one as well? The 4KM NAM seems to like a band of what looks to be heavy storms in N VA around 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Too bad no instability, cause the 12z GFS sounding for 03z tonight at KIAD is downright silly re hodo and bulk shear and SRH... same at 03z and 06z at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 will it be north or south of me today? and south it is. at least this first batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 I saw that - not sure what to make of it. Both the NAM and NAM nest forecasts for 3z tonight have at best a few hundred j/kg of best (accounting for sfc-based and elevated parcels) cape. The values are slightly higher further west where it has the storms at 3z (although seemingly still not sufficient for intense updrafts), but with the cape dropping off ahead of it, I would expect weakening if these forecasts are correct. I still wonder if these good reflectivity signals are just indicating very heavy rain showers, consistent with the 2"+ precipitable water values that the NAM (and GFS) are showing. That's a shame - but doesn't surprise me. Do you have any thoughts for the weekend with possible Bill remnants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 FWIW, SPC has added the SW portion of the LWX CWA as having a SLGT risk for severe on their 1630 OTLK... as in down by CHO/Staunton/Harrisonburg... marginal gets close to EZF ETA: MD out -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1047.html Seems to include SW corner of LWX CWA since LWX is mentioned on the ATTN line ...MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... A BELT OF 30-40 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...COULD SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE...GENERALLY SMALL BUT ORGANIZED...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF ONE SUSTAINED CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW ADVANCING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...APPEARS TO EXIST AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER EVOLVING CLUSTER BACK TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The guidance seems to have shifted a bit south as what's left of Bill approaches us Sunday - it looked like the remnant center would go to our north, but it looks now like it may come closer. But if you take the models verbatim, overall shear is weakening a lot, and the timing and strong forcing (it kinda merges with a nice shortwave) would make it more of a heavy rain event than a severe event. That said, I guess it still bears some watching for severe concerns if it arrives later Sunday. That's a shame - but doesn't surprise me. Do you have any thoughts for the weekend with possible Bill remnants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The guidance seems to have shifted a bit south as what's left of Bill approaches us Sunday - it looked like the remnant center would go to our north, but it looks now like it may come closer. But if you take the models verbatim, overall shear is weakening a lot, and the timing and strong forcing (it kinda merges with a nice shortwave) would make it more of a heavy rain event than a severe event. That said, I guess it still bears some watching for severe concerns if it arrives later Sunday. We just can't buy anything other than heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 and south it is. at least this first batch. and the second batch too. it's been raining nice here in Middletown (work) for the past 2 hours and 6 miles north at my house we've had sprinkles and the wife reports the ground has remained dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 We just can't buy anything other than heat. don't forget the humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 81 beautiful day. workout time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 12z 5 KM NMM smacks the region with heavy heavy rain and storms this afternoon into the night.... 12z 5KM ARW is okay and pretty decent rains... 12z LWX WRF-NMM4N run has some good rains and looks like a few storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Worst day so far for heat and humidity. Station at home had 92/77 when I checked about 15 minutes ago. Watching the storms in WV fall apart as they move east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 12z 5 KM NMM smacks the region with heavy heavy rain and storms this afternoon into the night.... 12z 5KM ARW is okay and pretty decent rains... Radar looks pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The meltdowns are coming soon if we stay on this path.. rain managed to almost completely dodge mby again, but i'm not upset. today is great. low 70s and cloudy most of the day at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Radar looks pathetic.You beat me to it. Looks like everything is drying up as it nears the region. Hopefully it juices up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The HRRR has been locking into the idea that most of the precip in northern VA/DC/central MD is generally light and scattered through around 2AM. Things then start filling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The HRRR has been locking into the idea that most of the precip in northern VA/DC/central MD is generally light and scattered through around 2AM. Things then start filling in. Bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 I wasn't singling you out. The severe folks will lose it if we go to a torch with no real boomers much like the snow weenies do when we get extended cold and nothing to show for it. I can feel the despair rising. Time for a thread and some poems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Bust Doesn't look that far off. Nothing heavy in the area attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Time for a thread and some poems. I've gotten lots of rain so I'm in a good mood, I'm sorry you and Mattie G keep getting screwed, Maybe you'll all get the remnants of Bill, but I don't know enough so maybe ask Bob Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 some hi-res simulations teased us with impressive late afternoon / early evening convection, but the majority of the guidance has been showing the most organized lift moving into the area later tonight Doesn't look that far off. Nothing heavy in the area attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 some hi-res simulations teased us with impressive late afternoon / early evening convection, but the majority of the guidance has been showing the most organized lift moving into the area later tonight 18z NAM continues to insist on a complex of rain and some storms in W VA around 11pm, and coming through C VA around 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 While the 18z 4KM NAM insists on storms tonight -- looks pretty strong... or just torrential rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Its so interesting how different tropicaltidbits sim radar is from wxbells. wxbell doesn't look nearly as exciting as those, yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Those plots from TT start using the "exciting" colors at some fairly low values of reflectivity. Its so interesting how different tropicaltidbits sim radar is from wxbells. wxbell doesn't look nearly as exciting as those, yoda. 18z NAM continues to insist on a complex of rain and some storms in W VA around 11pm, and coming through C VA around 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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