NRVwxfan. Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 I don't know for sure but two separate bolts would be my assumption as well... The building in the background is actually non-residential, it is a tax service and insurance dealer inside of that building. Wonder if their electronics took a hit? They are probably in good shape as long as there are no cables or wires near those trees running into the building. Also, they probably have good surge protectors being a business thats very computer dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Mike Maze for WRAL saying a big chance of storms here for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The NAM 32 and 14 KM and HRRR both have a pretty organized MCS like squall line coming through NC overnight tonight...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Morehead in their discussion mentioned sb cape >4000 and Li of 8 or 9, when I hear values like that I think of that crazy wind event we had in Greenville a few years back during a heatwave we had early part of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Morehead in their discussion mentioned sb cape >4000 and Li of 8 or 9, when I hear values like that I think of that crazy wind event we had in Greenville a few years back during a heatwave we had early part of July. Yeah its already that high over most of central/eastern NC and there are decent mid level lapse rates etc so there will be some really nasty stuff, the downdraft cape values over NC are about as high as you will ever see them here. Once that MCS gets going over western VA/WV into the lee trough of NC its gonna be fun NAM/HRRR have it right I bet and there is gonna be a nasty squall move through at least northern/central half on NC this afternoon into the overnight. IF it happens look for widespread wind damage reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The NAM 32 and 14 KM and HRRR both have a pretty organized MCS like squall line coming through NC overnight tonight...... NC is very close to being involved with the more broad aspects of the inland cyclone. last night there was a lot of sustained convection in areas and it is very humid today, so, there could be this type of organization at night. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/15h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Morehead in their discussion mentioned sb cape >4000 and Li of 8 or 9, when I hear values like that I think of that crazy wind event we had in Greenville a few years back during a heatwave we had early part of July. That systen was far and away the most worried that I have ever been in any type of weather event. The winds were stronger than anything I have experienced before or since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Just looked at the 12 GFS and it would indicate that the heat wave would start breaking down at day 7. I'll start believing this once it gets under 4 days. Day 7: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 I hope nobody is taking the GFS 2m temp.'s seriously due to its ridiculous hot bias at 2m. OTOH, it is still going to be disgustingly blazing, regardless, as 7-10 degrees cooler than those numbers would still be absolutely vile. This pattern cannot end soon enough. Blech! I've noted following this heat wave that the GFS has been running about 3 degrees too warm so far at KCHS. Yesterday, KCHS was 99. 7 days ago, GFS called for 102 at KCHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Two trees struck by two lightning bolts? Bet the people in that building needed a change of drawers. Pretty good proof that what few storms that do form in this miserable pattern can be quite violent. You'd be surprised how close it can get without riding the wires. We had lightning strike a pine tree in our backyard one night a few years ago - and set it on fire in a pouring rainstorm. We had to call the fire department to put it out, it went up in flames. But the power inside didn't even flicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Hopefully June will end up being the hottest month this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I I am surprised it is not higher looking at CAPE values expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I don't like the new categories for the storm outlook. I think there is one too many. Get rid of the marginal one and just call it slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Just looked at the 12 GFS and it would indicate that the heat wave would start breaking down at day 7. I'll start believing this once it gets under 4 days. Day 7: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false yeah the euro is showing a backdoor cold front coming through in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Yippee. Looking hot and dry for us. Bring on the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 yeah the euro is showing a backdoor cold front coming through in about a week. still upper 80's near 90 for Raleigh, which sucks, but ensembles in agreement w/ trough over east by day 10...would be a nice break from 100+. Would love to be in Ohio/WV mountains during this, highs max probably around 70 although haven't looked at temp maps I imagine it's low with a deep trough. Impressive couplet for Day 10 ensemble means, very wintry-patterny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 still upper 80's near 90 for Raleigh, which sucks, but ensembles in agreement w/ trough over east by day 10...would be a nice break from 100+. Would love to be in Ohio/WV mountains during this, highs max probably around 70 although haven't looked at temp maps I imagine it's low with a deep trough. Impressive couplet for Day 10 ensemble means, very wintry-patterny Would love to have upper 80s to near 90. Would really love to have some measurable rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Would love to have upper 80s to near 90. Would really love to have some measurable rain too.While we are wish casting , I wish I had a million dollars! . Next week looks miserabler than this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 still upper 80's near 90 for Raleigh, which sucks, but ensembles in agreement w/ trough over east by day 10...would be a nice break from 100+. Would love to be in Ohio/WV mountains during this, highs max probably around 70 although haven't looked at temp maps I imagine it's low with a deep trough. Impressive couplet for Day 10 ensemble means, very wintry-patterny thanks for the maps Jon. Just hope this does not get pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yippee. Looking hot and dry for us. Bring on the fall. Interesting that it shows North GA and the Western Carolinas being near normal for temps and also drier than normal. Typically when it's dry in the summer, it's also hot. Keep in mind that this includes one month of fall (September) so maybe in the warmer than normal areas it will be near normal in July and August and be much warmer than normal in September. Warmer than normal Septembers are not so bad since the days are much shorter and the sun angle much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Looks like an El Niño to me ! Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I was just reading an article from weather.com that was written about a month ago and it is calling for below normal temps across most of the country except in the west and Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I hope nobody is taking the GFS 2m temp.'s seriously due to its ridiculous hot bias at 2m. OTOH, it is still going to be disgustingly blazing, regardless, as 7-10 degrees cooler than those numbers would still be absolutely vile. This pattern cannot end soon enough. Blech! I'm glad you aren't completely accepting of this kind of weather, it got old back in spring I've had some rain the last two days, that have served to provide some wind, and some clouds to cool it off a bit in the afternoons. It's the still, baking heat that kills me. Fill that high pressure with lots of good particulates and aerosols to help with the breathing, and up the humidity....there is no redeeming factor whatsoever, lol. Everything was super crunchy dry until yesterday, so that's something. The deer ate all my strawberry plants that provided a bumper crop in the spring. At least 100 plants. ..that's something else. They did fine last summer in the drought I had down here, but now they are trying to come back from deer abuse, so I guess I should remember to water. Be better if this heat went away, and the rains returned...then I won't have to remember to do what nature should be doing anyway T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 12z GFS bullish on the heat for most of next week. 99-102 Mon-Fri...most of those days 100F+ What seems different about next week is 100+ is widespread a lot of the days, not just KFAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 12z GFS bullish on the heat for most of next week. 99-102 Mon-Fri...most of those days 100F+ What seems different about next week is 100+ is widespread a lot of the days, not just KFAY. It did back off on the 105 readings in KCHS and other areas but the widespread 100's seems very reasonable, given the strength and orientation of the upper ridge, some downslope component and scorching 850mb and 925mb temps, some blips of 25c 850mb and almost 30c 925mb temps, particularly Tues-Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 12z GFS bullish on the heat for most of next week. 99-102 Mon-Fri...most of those days 100F+ What seems different about next week is 100+ is widespread a lot of the days, not just KFAY. If we can just get through this week it looks like things get back to normal by the weekend. I don't see any storms in the forecast until Wednesday. The storms we had this past week really helped to make things more bearable at night by cooling it off some. Maybe we will get lucky these two weeks will be the only heat wave we get and we got to get over with early this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 It did back off on the 105 readings in KCHS and other areas but the widespread 100's seems very reasonable, given the strength and orientation of the upper ridge, some downslope component and scorching 850mb and 925mb temps, some blips of 25c 850mb and almost 30c 925mb temps, particularly Tues-Thurs. Lets not forget, and its been hammered on here before that the GFS has quite a warm bias too. There will be some 100s next week, but probably not quite as high as the GFS has been spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 If we can just get through this week it looks like things get back to normal by the weekend. I don't see any storms in the forecast until Wednesday. The storms we had this past week really helped to make things more bearable at night by cooling it off some. Maybe we will get lucky these two weeks will be the only heat wave we get and we got to get over with early this summer. I really hope we do get back to normal and stay that way for a few weeks at least. I am so sick of this heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 At least for here on out the days are getting shorter. Winter right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 At least for here on out the days are getting shorter. Winter right around the corner. A little over 2 months until fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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